Australian Stock Market Weekly Report

SPI futures Australian Stock Market 28th January 2012

2012-01-27T15:05:00.000-08:00

Trend bias is to follow the Weekly cycles upwards, and complete the
move into the first Quarter 50% level @ 4295

Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

The Australian Stock market is moving up into the 1st quarterly 50% level @ 4295, which I see as resistance.

However, when we read the US index report, there is a potential 2-month wave pattern towards the February highs.

If the SPI is going to continue higher, then it's on the back of the S&P 500 moving towards 1356.

if the SPI is going to stall and reverse down...

then the S&P 500 will stall after completing of the break and extend pattern, and then begin to rotate down towards it's own February 50% level.

Either way, the Australian market counter-trend move upwards during the first Quarter is about to complete its first stage.

SPI futures Australian Stock Market Report 21st January 2012

2012-01-20T15:26:00.000-08:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

Trend bias is to follow the Weekly cycles upwards, and complete the move into the first Quarter 50% level @ 4295

The move towards 4295 will be helped or hindered by the price action in US markets over the next 5-days (Read US Index report)

If there is any weakness over the next 5-days, my view is that the trend will then push upwards once again at the start of the new month and continue towards the new February highs, as part of a 2-month wave pattern during the first Quarter.

Note:- 4295 remains my resistance zone for the first quarter

SPI Futures 14th January 2012 Weekly report

2012-01-13T14:28:00.000-08:00

The January 50% level is supporting the trend, and if US markets
continue to move upwards, then the Australian Market will try its
best to move upwards, as part of larger move towards the
1st Quarter 50% level ;- 4295

The first sign will be price trading above the Weekly 50%
level @ 4118....... Previous Weekly Report

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

The Australian Market continued higher, stalling at its Weekly highs @ 4182.

As long as the S&P & DOW remain stable, as part of a move towards their own January highs...

The Australian market will try it's best to move towards the 1st Quarterly 50% level @ 4295.

My view is that the Australian Market will struggle to move beyond 4295 during the current Quarter.

Short-term:- 4164 will be the trend guide on whether the market continues higher

or dip back down into the Weekly 50% level @ 4102, which is seen as support

SPI Futures 7th January 2012 Weekly Report

2012-01-06T16:47:00.000-08:00

The Primary cycles in the Australian Market suggests that the trend will continue down, however the S&P 500 Primary cycle suggests upside.

Therefore it won't take much for price to move above the January 50% level @ 4088 and swing back towards the Weekly highs, and then the 1st Quarter 50% level @ 4250 to 4292

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles..

US markets continue to move higher, and as seen with the Australian market this week, it didn’t take much for price to move above the January 50% level @ 4088.

Currently the monthly 50% level is supporting the trend, and if US markets continue to move upwards (Read US Index report), then the Australian Market will try its best to move upwards, as part of larger move towards the 1st Quarter 50% level.

The first sign will be price trading above the Weekly 50% level @ 4118.

As quickly as it has moved above the Monthly 50% level, it can just as quickly move back below it, as the larger cycles continue to suggest further weakness.

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 31st December 2011

2011-12-30T14:37:00.000-08:00

SPI Primary cycles

The Primary cycles in the Australian Market suggests that the trend will continue down towards the lower levels in 2012, which will once again be long term BUY zones for stocks.

However, in the S&P 500 (read US Index report), the same bearish patterns aren't showing, as the trend will begin the new year above its own higher timeframe 50% levels.

That means that the Australian market could move up towards the higher timeframe 50% levels (1st Quarter) and the Yearly 50% level @ 4389 and BUTT its head against those levels for awhile....(3-6 months)

continue below....

SPI Monthly and Weekly

All the lesser timeframe cycles are bearish, and remain bearish as long as the trend remains below the monthly 50% levels.

But as we can see, it won't take much for price to move above the January 50% level @ 4088 and swing back towards the Weekly highs, and then the 1st Quarter 50% level @ 4250 to 4292

Helped by the S&P 500 remaining above its Critical Support level @ 1235.75

Australian Stock Market SPI futures 24th December 2011

2011-12-23T15:36:00.000-08:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

Most of the timeframe cycles remain bearish, as they are trading below the 50% levels.

And the only thing supporting the market was the S&P 500, which formed support and continued higher (read US Index report), allowing the Aussie market to remain stable.

with a shortened week (next Week), I'm not sure how the market will play out, but the close of next week will set-up the new Primary and Secondary cycles, which will play an important role, as illustrated with the 1st Quarter 50% level.

SPI futures Australian Stock Market 17 December 2011

2011-12-16T20:53:00.000-08:00

we begin to focus on whether there is a late move up towards the December highs over the next few weeks.

Weekly 50% level Trend guide.

SPI Monthly and Weekly

No late move towards the December highs, as the SPI failed to remain above the Weekly 50% level @ 4204.

Price action has gone from remaining stable & consolidating to WEAK, coming into the end of 2011, as price is now below the December 50% levels

And unless it's back above the Weekly 50% level @ 4181

2012 doesn't look like it's going to start well. (chart Below)

SPI Primary cycles

All trends originate from higher trimeframe 50% levels, and if it the current patterns follow the same expectation....

Then 2012 can move lower than the current 2011 lows

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 10th December 2011

2011-12-09T14:07:00.000-08:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

After this week's price action of testing the December 50% level, along with Global markets rising up on Friday...

Now we begin to focus on whether there is a late move up towards the December highs over the next few weeks.

Weekly 50% level Trend guide.

Australian Stock Market SPI futures 3rd December 2011 Weekly report

2011-12-02T15:20:00.000-08:00

Early next week rises upward (3-day rise), then the Weekly level @ 4125 is seen as resistance.

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

4125 and the Weekly level formed resistance for the first 2-days, but as US markets followed the same 3-day rise this sent the Aussie market back into the Weekly highs by Friday

So we are back to my original view of the market consolidating for the rest of the 4th Quarter.

Next Week:- as long as it’s below 4319, the trend bias is to slip back towards the Weekly 50% level (random support)

With a view that some time over the next 2-weeks revisit the December 50% levels.

Whilst markets are above the Monthly 50% levels, the trend bias is up.

Australian Stock Market SPI futures 26th November 2011 Weekly Report

2011-11-25T14:40:00.000-08:00

Next week's levels @ 4164-72, will provide enough information whether the market continues to trade between the Weekly levels (consolidation) or whether the downtrend continues.

as it won't take much for the market to be trading below the November 50% levels, putting more pressure on the market.

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

Monday failed to remain above support levels (November 50% level @ 4164), as the S&P 500 opened below it's own support levels on Monday. (read US Index report)

The breakout of the Weekly lows @ 4102 will normally extend towards next week's lows @ 3919

Note:- My view is that price will retest last week's breakout @ 4102..

That means it could move down into next week's lows @ 3919 and then swing upwards, which will align with the December 50% levels, and further resistance.

But, if early next week rises upward (3-day rise), then those Weekly lows @ 4102 and the Weekly level @ 4125 are seen as resistance.

Based on current price action my expectation is that it will then extend down towards the December lows.

Australian Stock Market (SPI Futures) 19th November 2011

2011-11-18T13:41:00.000-08:00

either the trend continues to move upwards, whilst above 4359

or we have more of the same over the next 5-days, as the market consolidates within the weekly levels ... (Previous Weekly report)

SPI monthly and Weekly cycles

The Market continues to consolidate during the 4th Quarter, and my view is that it will continue to do so.

Of course the market can continue lower, as it's trading below the higher timeframe 50% levels (Yearly and Quarterly)....

and it won't take much for the market to be trading below the November 50% levels also, putting more pressure on the market.

Next Week:- my view is that next week's level @ 4164-72, will provide enough information whether I'm right and the market continues to trade between the Weekly levels (consolidation)

or not, and the downtrend continues.

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 12th November 2011

2011-11-11T14:50:00.000-08:00

The trend guide is based on the Weekly 50% level, with an UPward bias

I still have the view that the Market is trying to rise up towards the November highs, and the 4th Quarter 50% level...@ 4519 ....(Previous Weekly Report)

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

This week saw the Weekly 50% level support the trend, as it continues to move upwards during November.

I still have the view that the trend is moving higher during November (resistance), and then likely to consolidate for the rest of this Quarter....

That is, unless it closes below the Weekly lows

Next Week:-

use the levels in the Weekly cycles, along with short-term set-ups within the 5-day range...

either the trend continues to move upwards, whilst above 4359

or we have more of the same over the next 5-days, as the market consolidates within the weekly levels.

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 5th November 2011

2011-11-04T15:06:00.000-07:00

I'll be looking for the trend to continue towards the 4th Quarterly 50% level @ 4519 & (Monthly highs)

Once that occurs, I will then be looking for a potential larger reversal back down to retest the monthly 50% level in November, as shown @ 4190 (Previous Weekly Report)

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

The market did the opposite of what I was expecting, as it moved down into the November 50% level early in the month on the back of weakness in the S&P 500 (Read US Index Report)

Next Week:- trend guide is based on the Weekly 50% level, with an UPward bias

I still have the view that the Market is trying to rise up towards he November highs, and the 4th Quarter 50% level...@ 4519

Unless next week is trading below the Weekly lows, as this could put weakness into the market towards 3856.

The Australian Stock Market SPI futures 29th October 2011 Weekly

2011-10-28T15:46:00.000-07:00

As noted in last week's report... keep an open mind that if the S&P 500 (US markets) continues up towards 1274... the Australian market could be around 4519 during November.

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

The trend has continued with an upward bias since it crossed over the October monthly 50% level

three week's ago

A Break and extend pattern in the Weekly cycles (above 4345) should continue up into next week's highs @ 4463

Once that occurs I'd be looking for price to reverse back down into the this week's high, as part of retesting the breakout, and as low as 4298.

Once that occurs I'd then be looking for the trend to continue towards the 4th Quarterly 50% level @ 4519 & (Monthly highs)

Once that occurs, I will then be looking for a potential larger reversal back down to retest the monthly 50% level in November, as shown @ 4190

SPI futures Australian Stock Market 22 October 2011 Weekly

2011-10-21T15:10:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

US markets have showed more strength this week, whilst the Australian Market has struggled to rise higher than the 4th Quarterly level @ 4297, as resource stocks weigh down the market.

That may continue next week, if the SPI is trading below the Weekly level @ 4218...

as price will likely drift back down towards the Weekly 50% level and October 50% level (support)

Above 4218 and the trend bias is to follow the Weekly cycles...

As noted in last week's report...

keep an open mind that if the S&P 500 (US markets) continues up towards 1274... the Australian market could be around 4519 during November.

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 15th October 2011 Weekly Report

2011-10-14T15:52:00.000-07:00

Weekly close above the monthly 50% levels and this Week's highs @ 4141 can often see more gains in the following week as the trend continues into next week's highs, and 4th Quarterly level 4262-97

Therefore:- simply trade on the side of 4152...

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles.

SPI has continued higher following the Weekly cycles, and likely to continue higher next week.

Next week’s highs are once again random resistance zones within the 5-day cycle.

As noted in last week’s report…..

And it's way too early to think that the Australian market will continue towards 4519+ during the 4th Quarter, simply because US markets aren't showing the same strength (Read US Index report)

After this week’s price action in US markets (read S&P Index report)….

Aussie traders should keep an open mind that the Trend could continue up towards 4519+ by November.

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 8th October 2011 Weekly

2011-10-07T14:50:00.000-07:00

Around 3800-3820, could form support and get to the market to swing back up towards the monthly 50% level in October (Weekly highs)

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

This week saw the market move into the support levels @ 3805-20, completing the break and extend pattern from 2 week's ago.

The completion of this pattern will often see the market rotate back towards the higher timeframe monthly 50% levels and the weekly highs, as noted in last week's report.

Next Week:- A weekly close above the monthly 50% levels and this Week's highs @ 4141 can often see more gains in the following week as the trend continues into next week's highs, and 4th Quarterly level 4262-97

Therefore:- simply trade on the side of 4152...

it's either going to continue upwards, or the next 5-days moves into a consolidating pattern towards the Weekly 50% level because of the price action in US markets.

And it's way too early to think that the Australian market will continue towards 4519+ during the 4th Quarter, simply because US markets aren't showing the same strength (Read US Index report)

SPI futures Australian stock Market 1st October 2011 Weekly

2011-09-30T16:28:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

Next week's short-term trend guide is to continue down into the weekly lows.

Around 3800-3820, could form support and get to the market to swing back up towards the monthly 50% level in October (Weekly highs)

However, my view is that price will continue down into the October lows & 100% of the Yearly range @ 3690, and form a robust support zone for 2011

The Australian stock report SPI Futures 24th Sept 2011 Weekly

2011-09-23T16:37:00.000-07:00

SPI monthly and Weekly cycles

SPI moving down into the September lows, as part of this week's breakout @ 4002 and extension down into this week's lows.

This was set-up on the back of the S&P 500 breaking out of the 5-day lows, 1 day later than expected.

Next week:- around 3800 could form a robust support zone, and the market swings back towards 4002 and then the start of October.

if that occurs then we look for a potential move back down towards 3634 in October.

However, if next week continues down into 3690/3717, then there is a potential DOUBLE BOTTOM in the market (3rd Quarter) that could result in a major support zone for the rest of 2011.

SPI Daily Australian stock market 17th September 2011 Weekly

2011-09-16T14:31:00.000-07:00

Expectation is that the trend is moving down into the September lows...

Next Week:- Weekly level @ 4082 could see the SPI rise back into the Weekly 50% level @ 4182

SPI Monthly and Weekly

My view was that the trend would continue down towards the September lows...

however, as mentioned in last week's report, the weekly lows could form a support zone and swing the market back upwards.

Next Week:- a lot will depend on the S&P 500, and whether it starts next week with a 2-day reversal pattern back down. (read US Index report)

Therefore the trend in the Australian will be defined by the Weekly 50% level @ 4160.

The monthly cycles don't favour more gains in the current month, but if it's above 4160 then the bias is up.

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 10th September 2011 Weekly

2011-09-09T15:58:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

Expectation is that the trend is moving down into the September lows...

Next Week:- Weekly level @ 4082 could see the SPI rise back into the Weekly 50% level @ 4182

However, the first sign of weakness will be price trading below 4082....

and then confirmed with a breakout of the Weekly lows @ 4022

Note:- Weekly lows can often form a support zone during the current Month....

but my view is that the lows won't hold, as part of a September 50% level rejection pattern towards the monthly lows

The Australian Stock Market (SPI futures) 3rd Sept 2011 Weekly

2011-09-02T16:30:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

There are two patterns at play during September using the Monthly 50% level as the trend guide....

#B) forms support around 4135/37, and rises up towards 4405 and then 4600 by the start of October

or

#c) August lows forms resistance, and the next leg down begins with the September 50% level rejection pattern.

My view is (#C) simply because all the patterns over the past 2 -months have played out accordingly...

and Thursday's fake breakout and reversal pattern was the first sign of that happening.

The 2nd sign of that happening will be the market trading below 4135/4137

September lows are seen as the target and robust support levels for the rest of 2011.

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 27th August 2011 Weekly report

2011-08-26T16:23:00.000-07:00

It won't surprise me to see the SPI inside the Weekly channels (above 4029), simply because the S&P 500 remains supported around it's August lows @ 1115 until September.

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

The Australian Market remains supported above 4137, as the S&P remains above the August lows @ 1115

Next Week:- the Australian market could move back down into the Weekly 50% level @ 4129, but my hunch the trend continues to move upwards.

Once the next 5-days are over, then the week after next will let us know whether the trend follows the September low pattern using the Monthly 50% level as the trend guide....

Or continues upwards and back towards 4405, using the September 50% level as the trend guide.

My view is that is going to continue down towards the September lows, and if that happens then my bet is that Obama will announce QE3 somewhere around those September lows (double bottom) which will underpin (support) the trend for the rest of 2011

The Australian Stock Market (SPI Futures) 20th August 2011 Weekly

2011-08-19T16:14:00.000-07:00

Next week begins the 3rd Week, and if it follows last week’s report, then the market should continue to upwards over the first 3-4 days.

This is part of retesting the previous weekly breakout @ 4321, if that happens then traders should move into short- positions from Thursday onwards.

Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

The SPI moved upwards for the first 3-days and retested the previous Weekly breakout and then got sold off on Thursday using the August lows as resistance.

I was expecting higher highs around 4405 by Thursday's open, but that was mainly due to the S&P 500 failing to follow the same 3-day rally pattern.

The current price action was written 3-weeks ago, and described in my new book, and so far it's following the text book patterns...

And if it continues to do so, then the SPI will move down towards the September lows in the following month.

Next Week:- In the short-term if it's below 4029 the trend bias is down....

However, it won't surprise me to see the SPI inside the Weekly channels (above 4029), simply because the S&P 500 remains supported around it's August lows @ 1115 until September.

Read US Index report (S&P 500)

The Australian Stock Market 13th August 2011 Weekly

2011-08-12T16:38:00.000-07:00

The Weekly lows @ 3890, will complete the break and extend pattern from last week's lows @ 4321.

Once that pattern has played out, then we look for the following week (3rd Week) for a possible larger reversal pattern upwards, which could take the market as high as 4405 (#B).

If that plays out, then we look for another leg down in the 4th week of August into the September lows

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

Last Week’s price action was exaggerated on the news of the credit downgrade in the US, but we completed the break and extend pattern into the Weekly lows @ 3890, which was part of the original analysis (#A into B#)

Next week begins the 3rd Week, and if it follows last week’s report, then the market should continue to rally upwards over the first 3-4 days.

This is part of retesting the previous weekly breakout @ 4321, and could be as high as 4404 by next Thursday. (#C)

If that happens then traders should move back into short positions

However, I could be totally wrong about a 3rd week rally, and if the market begins to trade below the weekly levels @ 4122, it could put pressure on the market once again, simply because price is trading below the August lows.

The Australian Stock Index Report 6th August 2011

2011-08-05T16:23:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

Weakness in US markets over this 5-day cycle has seen the Australian market move down and close below the Primary BUY support level @ 4137, helped by the August 50% level rejection pattern.

Extremely bearish whilst the market is below 4137, and this could see the trend continue down into 3690 by September.

In my new book there is a section on the current market conditions from pages 120 to 130, that spells out the possible price action over the next 2-3weeks, and this will be heavily influenced by the price action in the S&P 500 (read US Report http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/)

That means over the next 5-days, the market can rise upwards early next week, reach the Weekly 50% level @ 4207, but then continue down into the Weekly lows.

The Weekly lows @ 3890 (Day session @ 3951), will complete the break and extend pattern from last week's lows @ 4321.

Once that pattern has played out, then we look for the following week (3rd Week) for a possible larger reversal pattern upwards, which could take the market as high as 4405-4442 (#B).

if that plays out, then we look for another leg down in the 4th week of August into the September lows.

In conclusion:- Whilst the market remains below the Primary BUY zone @ 4137, longs are open to risk

Footnote:- This week's report was written before Standard and Poor downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA+, how it changes the analysis over the next 5-days is yet to be seen

The Aussie Market Weekly Report 30th July 2011

2011-07-29T17:15:00.000-07:00

BUY zones in July, with the expectation that the trend will continue back towards 4721 to 4804 during the current Quarter... this pattern is reliable, unless the US fails to raise it's debt ceiling.

(Previous Weekly report)

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

The continuation of the upward trend (#A) from the July lows, as shown in the Monthly charts failed to materialise, as the US continues to fail resolving its debt ceiling problem.

This has put pressure on the markets, and as we can see the Australian Market has closed below 3rd quarter support levels.

If something is done over the weekend to resolve it, then Markets can open much higher, and quickly move back towards the August 50% level and beyond.

However, if I’m focusing on the current patterns in the Weekly cycles, then the Weekly breakout this week would normally continue to move towards next week’s lows: - break and extend pattern.

Normally, next week's lows can provide a swing point for a move towards back towards the August 50% level, once validated with patterns within the 5-day range.

However, as I’ve been saying for a number of weeks now….whilst the debt ceiling issue hangs over the markets, and whilst the SPI is below 4405, the trend bias can follow the Primary trend down into 4137/57, and the next long term BUY zone (#B)

The Aussie Market Weekly report 23rd July 2011

2011-07-22T17:14:00.000-07:00

The July BUY zones are critical for the next leg upwards to 4721 and 4804…
That should be confirmed with a 5-day high breakout. (last week’s report)

BUY zones are my levels that I believe will provide the most robust support levels for the market to rise upwards from...That upward rise is back towards the 3rd Quarterly 50% level (June 25th Weekly report)

SPI Quarterly cycles

I was confident that the market would rise upwards from the BUY zones in July, as it matched the exact same pattern in 2010.

with the expectation that the trend will continue back towards 4721 to 4804 during the current Quarter

SPI Monthly and Weekly Cycles

July BUY zones were confirmed on Wednesday, with a 5-day high breakout @ 4500.

Next Week:- The SPI could remain within the Weekly levels, and consolidate for the next 5-days...

but if it's above 4617, the trend bias is up towards the July 50% level and then 4721-4804 during August.

Once again, this pattern is reliable, unless the US fails to raise it's debt ceiling.

The Aussie Market Weekly Report 16th July 2011

2011-07-15T18:26:00.000-07:00

As long as it remains above 4607, the trend bias is to follow the Weekly cycles towards the Weekly highs and the July 50% level....
The Market could also revisit the July BUY zones in the 3rd Quarter, once it hits the 50% levels, simply because, fundamentally things around the globe aren't providing many positive signs

Previous Weekly reports

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

The SPI didn’t remain above 4607, as Monday opened below, and has continued to follow the move down towards the July BUY zones, which is what I was expecting.

The BUY zones around 4395-4405 are critical for the next leg upwards to 4721 and 4804…

That should be confirmed with the market trading above the Weekly level and matched with a 5-day high breakout.

If these BUY zones don’t hold support, then the SPI will probably follow the Primary cycles towards 4137

That weakness will only come about if the US decides not to raise the debt ceiling

Aussie Index (SPI) 9th July 2011 Weekly

2011-07-08T16:23:00.000-07:00

SPI Primary and Weekly cycles

Expectation that the Australian market will continue to push upwards in the current cycle.

As long as it remains above 4607, the trend bias is to follow the Weekly cycles towards the Weekly highs and the July 50% level.

As per previous Weekly reports:- the current reversal upwards from the Primary support level @ 4442 has a bias to continue higher:- 4721 to 4804 during the current Quarter.

Aussie Index (SPI) 2nd July 2011 Weekly

2011-07-01T16:53:00.000-07:00

The Primary level @ 4442 is supporting the market, and there is the possibility that the Market rises upwards next week. That upward rise is back towards the 3rd Quarterly 50% level (Yellow)

Previous Weekly report

SPI Primary and Monthly cycles

The SPI didn't move down into MY BUY zones in July...

but instead continued upwards in the last week of the Quarter from Primary support, and looks to be moving back towards the Quarterly 50% level @ 4721, and could go as high as 4804.

The up move was helped by the price action in the S&P 500 on Wednesday, with its breakout of the Weekly highs @ 1295, (Read US Index report)

Even though the market could go as high as 4804, I feel that the market will once again move into another large 3-month sideways pattern. I'd be very surprised to see the market spend too much time above that level

The Market could revisit the July BUY zones in the 3rd Quarter, once it hits the 3rd quarter 50% level, simply because, fundamentally things around the globe aren't providing many positive signs that would lead to another Bull trend towards new highs in 2011

If the SPI continues to trend upwards and close above 4804, this will turn the Secondary cycles to Bullish once again after rising upwards from the Primary support level @ 4442

However, I would still like to see the market move into another 3-month sidways pattern, and then use the cycle turn around as support for the next leg upwards in the 4th Quarter.

Aussie Index (SPI) 25th June 2011 Weekly

2011-06-24T18:16:00.000-07:00

The Australian market has now the potential to rise upwards from the June lows, as part of a short-term counter-trend move..

However, any rise upwards will be seen as temporary, because trends that are rejected down from the 3rd month 50% level (June 50% level) will often extend towards lower lows into the following quarter.

Previous Weekly report

SPI Weekly cycles

June lows supporting the Market, and there is the possibility that the Market rises upwards next week, if above 4487

However, the June 50% level rejection pattern is trying to push the market towards the July lows in the 3rd Quarter, as shown in the following chart.

Primary and Monthly cycles

The Primary level @ 4442 is supporting the market, and may continue to do so...

However, as mentioned a few weeks ago, the rejection pattern is trying to push the trend down into the BUY zones in the monthly cycles.

Those BUY zones are my levels that I believe will provide the most robust support levels for the market to rise upwards from.

That upward rise is back towards the 3rd Quarterly 50% level (Yellow)

Once that happens, I feel that the market will once again move into another large 3-month sideways pattern. I'd be very surprised to see the market spend too much time above that level, even though it could go as high as 4804.

There are two things that could go wrong with my analysis....

#1) the trend doesn't continue down into BUY zones, but actually rises upwards from next week and moves up into the 3rd quarterly 50% level, and as high @ 4804...

if that happens, then I expect the same consolidation pattern for the rest of the 3rd quarter.

#2) support levels fail, and the market continues down towards 4157 by the end of 2011.

Aussie Index (SPI) 18th June 2011 Weekly

2011-06-17T17:24:00.000-07:00

If there is going to be a counter-trend move upwards, then is most likely going to align with the June lows @ 4460/62, and the S&P 500 finding support @ 1254-59

However, as noted in last week's report, any counter-trend moves are simply short-term up moves, as part of a larger reversal pattern towards the July lows.

Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

The SPI has moved down into the June lows @ 4460, whilst the S&P has moved down into it's own Support levels @ 1254/59.

Both markets have now the potential to rise upwards, as part of a short-term counter-trend move once price is above the Weekly levels.

However, any rise upwards will be seen as temporary, because trends that are rejected down from the 3rd month 50% level (June 50% level) will often extend towards lower lows into the following quarter.

And as we can see in the monthly cycles, there is still the potential to follow the trend towards lower lows.

SPI Primary cycles

The Primary cycles in 2011 are similar to the price action in 2010; April highs and reversal patterns downward in the 2nd Quarter.

However, the larger cycles are different, as 2010 hit resistance, whilst this year the market has moved down into the 2011 support levels @ 4442....

Therefore there are two potential patterns based on the larger primary cycles.....

#1) This week's support @ 4460 sends the SPI back up towards the Quarterly 50% levels (3rd Quarter Yellow), and more sideways consolidation for the next 2-months

#2) Or the trend follows the monthly cycles lower, and finds support in the July lows, and then swings upwards into the 3rd Quarter 50% level.

At this stage the 3-Quarterly 50% level is seen as resistance, and likely consolidation pattern over the next 3-months

Aussie Index (SPI) 11th June 2011 Weekly

2011-06-10T16:29:00.000-07:00

"markets can often come under selling pressure in the 3rd month of the Quarter if price is rejected from the monthly 50% level, and extend towards the following quarterly lows. Therefore the trend bias is to continue down into the June lows @ 4462, and then possibly extend towards the July lows

And if history repeats, then that's the level we should focus on in July, with the expectation that there will be Short-term counter-trend moves upwards until then"

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

The Trend has remained flat with a downward bias......

and as noted in last week's report.... if there is going to be a counter-trend move upwards, then is most likely going to align with the June lows @ 4460/62, and the S&P 500 finding support @ 1254-59 (US Index report)

However, as noted in last week's report, any counter-trend moves are simply short-term up moves, as part of a larger reversal pattern towards the July lows.

For those who subscribe to the definition of bear trends that is defined by the Primary timeframe, the current trend is trading below both the Yearly and Quarterly 50% levels.

Financial stocks have been in bear trends since early MAY, whilst resource stocks aren't, and they continue to remain above their own, namely BHP & RIO. (read the Stock Report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 4th June 2011 Weekly

2011-06-03T17:14:00.000-07:00

The Weekly 50% level and June 50% level align as of next week...(Wednesday)

those levels will determine whether the trend moves upwards….
or is once again rejected back down from the monthly 50% level towards the June lows.

Previous Weekly report

SPI monthly and Weekly

The market rose upwards until the start of June, and was then rejected down from the monthly 50% level, as the S&P 500 reversed down on the same day (read US market Report)

The critical support level in the short-term was 4581 Weekly lows, however, the support level was based on whether the S&P 500 would hold support @ 1301. And as we know that didn’t happen on Friday.

For those who have read my book, markets can often come under selling pressure in the 3rd month of the Quarter if price is rejected from the monthly 50% level, and extend towards the following quarterly lows. And as we can see, this is what is happening at the moment.

Therefore the trend bias is to continue down into the June lows @ 4462, and then possibly extend towards the July lows

There was a similar pattern in 2010, when markets reversed down from the April highs and continued towards the lower Quarterly support levels (Yellow)

In 2010, the lows in the market aligned precisely with the 3rd Quarter support (yellow) in July.

And if history repeats, then that's the level we should focus on in July, with the expectation that there will be Short-term counter-trend moves upwards until then.

Aussie Index (SPI) 28th MAY 2011 Weekly

2011-05-27T17:20:00.000-07:00

4703 will decide on whether the price action in MAY and the failure at the monthly 50% level will push the SPI towards the Monthly lows....

especially if the S&P follows a double Weekly low pattern (Read US report)

Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly and Weekly

The SPI opened below the Weekly level @ 4703 and moved down, as the S&P followed the double Weekly low pattern.

Once the S&P failed to continue down below the Weekly low (FAKE break), the SPI moved back above the Quarterly 50% level @ 4649, and then towards the short-term highs (5-day range)

I favour the trend to rise upwards, however, there isn't a robust set-up to BUY and hold as yet.

Things need to be validated, and those patterns begin with a move above the June 50% level, and then followed by the breakout of the Weekly highs.

As we can see the Weekly 50% level and June 50% level align as of next week...(Wednesday)

And those levels will determine whether the trend moves upwards, as the market remains above the Primary and Secondary 50% levels....

or is once again rejected back down from the monthly 50% level towards the June lows.

Aussie Index (SPI) 21st MAY 2011 Weekly

2011-05-20T16:53:00.000-07:00

find support above the 2nd Quarterly 50% level @ 4649, and then make a gradual rise in the last week of MAY.

I would continue to use the Weekly levels as resistance/Trend guide:- 4738

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Last week saw the SPI find support @ the 2nd Quarter 50% level @ 4649 and rotate up towards the MAY 50% level and stall.

As noted in last week's report...

if the last week in MAY is going to rise up gradually, then it's going to remain inside the Weekly level @ 4703, and then push up towards the Weekly 50% level, and as high as 4826

4703 will also decide on whether the price action in MAY and the failure at the monthly 50% level will push the SPI towards the Monthly lows in June

I favour a rise upwards, as the market is acting in a predictable manner

But the market is never 100% reliable, especially if the S&P follows a double Weekly low pattern (Read US report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 14th MAY 2011 Weekly

2011-05-13T17:05:00.000-07:00

I favour a continuation of the downward trend, following the break and extend pattern towards next week's lows (4649-59)

and then next best long set-ups will align with lower lows in June...

Previous Weekly Reports

SPI Monthly & Weekly

The trend in the SPI is going to depend on whether the S&P 500 breaks support or not (Read US index report)

if it breaks, the SPI will continue down into the MAY lows

if not...

it can dip down into next week's lows (4618-49), find support above the 2nd Quarterly 50% level, and then make a gradual rise in the last week of MAY.

Looking at the levels in the Weekly range....

I would continue to use the Weekly levels as resistance/Trend guide:- 4738

Aussie Index (SPI) 7th MAY 2011 Weekly

2011-05-06T18:03:00.000-07:00

keep in mind we had the same pattern in 2010, when the market reversed down from the April highs, and by the 2nd day support levels failed in MAY (left Chart), on the back of weakness in the S&P 500.

Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly and Weekly

We have the same pattern as in 2010, with the support levels failing by the 2nd day in MAY, on the back of weakness in the S&P 500.

However, we don't have the same outcome.

In 2010 the market reversed back down into the MAY lows during the first 5-days, (Flash Crash)..

Whilst in 2011, the S&P continues to remain above support levels, and the SPI below those support levels, which are now forming resistance.

There are two possible patterns during the rest of MAY....

#1) continues with the downward trend, following the break and extend pattern towards next week's lows (4649-59)

#2) US markets move upwards (read US Index Report) and the SPI has a 'fake break' pattern.

Out of the two, I favour (#1) , and then next best long set-ups will align with lower lows in June...

but it won't surprise me to see #2)

Aussie Index (SPI) 30th April 2011 Weekly

2011-04-29T00:34:00.000-07:00

SPI Primary (2010) and Secondary cycles (2011)

As mentioned at the start of April, the market was either going to continue lower...

or

because the S&P 500 had remained above key support levels (Fake break), it was more likely going to continue to consolidate until the start of MAY, and then try and make another move towards new highs in the 2nd quarter (5093-5193)

As we can see in the above right chart, the market has moved down into this Week's lows, and next week’s lows now match the MAY 50% level. (Critical Support)

The current price action suggests that the Market may continue towards new highs in
the 2nd quarter @ 5093 to 5193, once Support has been validated ( doubleWeekly low pattern)

However, keep in mind we had the same pattern in 2010, when the market reversed down from the April highs, and by the 2nd day support levels failed in MAY (left Chart), on the back of weakness in the S&P 500.

What’s the difference this time?

The Primary cycles in the Aussie market are different, in 2010 we were below the 50% level, whereas in 2011 we are above, so there’s more reason for the trend to continue higher during the current Primary cycle.

The S&P is also above the Yearly highs (1301-1331), whereas in MAY 2010, the market opened below the Yearly highs and sold off on the first day of MAY (flash crash)

And currently, US markets continue with QE2 until the end June, which can help underpin
the current upward trend in US markets.

In conclusion:- be aware of any weakness below the MAY 50% level

Aussie Index (SPI) 23rd April 2011 Weekly

2011-04-22T16:54:00.000-07:00

SPI Primary cycle and Weekly ranges

The SPI continues to consolidate in April coming into MAY, as the S&P 500 continues to remain above support levels.

As noted in last week’s report….

There are two possible patterns, and that will depend if the S&P holds support levels.

If it does hold support, then I’ll look for the next push upwards from MAY, as the market ‘chops’ around for the next 3-weeks (SET-UP B) towards 5093 to 5139

If it doesn’t hold support, and the S&P moves back down towards 1247-54, then the SPI can makes its way back towards 2nd Quarter Support (SET-UP C)

Therefore there’s 1 week left to go in April and the market continues to consolidate within the Weekly levels…

A bearish pattern will only appear if the S&P is once again trading below the weekly levels, and the SPI is trading below 4801

Aussie Index (SPI) 16 April 2011 Weekly

2011-04-15T15:38:00.000-07:00

The SPI has moved up into the monthly highs in April @ 4978, and in my opinion has hit resistance levels and will begin to rotate lower over the coming weeks, and move back down towards the lower Weekly levels.

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Primary & Secondary cycles.

Market Top @ 5006 on Monday, and expectation that the reversal pattern would occur is currently playing out

Even though I have a view that the trend bias is up towards 5093 to 5139, that’s more likely going to happen after there's a reversal pattern down from these April highs.

There are two possible patterns, and that will depend if the S&P holds support levels (above 1300-1304).

If it does hold support, then I’ll look for the next push upwards from MAY, as the market ‘chops’ around for the next 3-weeks (SET-UP B)

If it doesn’t hold support, and the S&P moves back down towards 1247-54, then the SPI can makes its way back towards 2nd Quarter Support (SET-UP C)

Next Week:- At this stage I’d treat the Aussie market as consolidating within the Weekly levels, using the Weekly 50% level as support.

And keep an eye on if there's a daily close below 1299 in the S&P500

Aussie Index (SPI) 9 April 2011 Weekly

2011-04-08T15:49:00.000-07:00

It looks like the SPI will continue to follow the double Weekly high pattern and towards the April highs.

Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Overall target during the current quarter remains 5093+

However, the SPI has moved up into the monthly highs in April @ 4978, and in my opinion has hit resistance levels and will begin to rotate lower over the coming weeks, and move back down towards the lower Weekly levels.

Depending on where the market is at the start of MAY, and if it's trading near the monthly 50% levels, then the next move upwards will align with support levels matching in the following month

Basically, I think buying into the market at these levels is open to risk, and I would prefer to wait for the market to rotate back down over the next 3-weeks into trailing support levels

Aussie Index (SPI) 2 April 2011 Weekly

2011-04-01T14:55:00.000-07:00

The current price action is a retest of breakout of the Weekly lows @ 4772 and also the Monthly 50% level, which on most occasions will push the market back down.

However, the price action in the S&P 500 on Thursday suggests more gains, which can push the Aussie market higher in the short-term, if it begins trading above 4804. .

Previous Weekly report.

SPI Yearly and Weekly

As mentioned in last week’s report, it was the price action in the S&P that was showing signs of dragging the Australian market higher, and once above 4804 the trend followed the Weekly highs.

Next Week….

It looks like the SPI will continue to follow the double Weekly high pattern and towards the April highs.

However, based on the price action on Friday, we could begin with a 2-day reversal back down towards the Weekly level @ 4813

Our overall target for 2011 remains 5093, and as high as 5139

Aussie Index (SPI) 26 March 2011 Weekly

2011-03-25T14:22:00.000-07:00

"Next Week's trend guide is the Weekly level @ 4646.

Potential swing is towards the Weekly 50% level @ 4740 to 4772."

Previous Weekly report

SPI Primary, Secondary & Intermediate Cycle

The SPI has reversed back into the Weekly 50% level and 4772.

As pointed out in the previous Weekly reports, I would treat this reversal pattern as hitting resistance and then continuing lower, towards a double monthly low pattern April, that aligns with the start of the 2nd Quarter

The current price action is a retest of breakout of the Weekly lows @ 4772 and also the Monthly 50% level, which on most occassions will push the market back down.

However, the price action in the S&P 500 on Thursday suggests more gains, which can push the Aussie market higher in the short-term, if it begins trading above 4804.

Otherwise, my view is that the SPI can remain within the Weekly levels (white) over the next 5-days until the start of the 2nd Quarter & April

As we can see in the Primary and Secondary cycles, the market has come down and retested the Yearly and Quarterly 50% levels, and is now pushing upwards. If we followed the cycles of retesting support and moving outward from these levels, the 2011 target remains the highs @ 5093.

Therefore the Aussie market is either going to continue to push upwards next week, or it's going to remain flat over the next 5-days within the Weekly levels until the start of the 2nd Quarter

READ US market report

Aussie Index (SPI) 19 March 2011 Weekly

2011-03-18T15:47:00.000-07:00

" My view is that the market is going to swing back upwards and retest the Weekly breakout.

This will be resistance zone, that can send the market back downward
into the lows once again (April)

I would normally associate the current price action with another retest of the monthly lows in April, thus forming a double bottom before the market has the potential to move upwards "

SPI Monthly and Weekly

The SPI moved down into higher timeframe support levels @ 4565, but it took until Friday for the market to begin its swing upwards, as part of a move to retest last week's breakout of the Weekly lows

Next Week's trend guide is the Weekly level @ 4646.

Potential swing is towards the Weekly 50% level @ 4740 to 4772.

Note;- as mentioned in the previous Weekly report, there is the possibility that the market moves back down into April's lows using the April 50% level as the trend guide.

If the market struggles to rise upwards over the next 2-weeks, and using the higher timeframes 50% levels as a trend guide, we could see the market back around 4330.

Any weakness in the Australian market towards those lows will be influenced by continued weakness in the S&P 500

The Quarterly 50% levels (Yellow) are the critical support levels in the secondary cycles in the market

Aussie Index (SPI) 12 March 2011 Weekly

2011-03-11T14:35:00.000-08:00

"Unless the SPI is below 4807, the upward trend remains stable.

Price has reversed down from the February highs (double monthly highs) and found support (February 50% level)

This would normally see the 3rd month continue up towards the following Quarterly highs in April, as part of a larger trend towards 5093, as previously mentioned

In the short-term, there is a gap at 4807, which matches critical levels in the SPI."

Last Week's report

SPI Monthly and Weekly

The risk of the upward trend began to falter by Tuesday once price started trading below 4807, and it was then confirmed with Thursday's breakout of the 3-week lows @ 4772, and the extension down into the MARCH lows.

Those lows @ 4590 were filled during Sycom trading.

My view from next week, is that the market is going to swing back towards 4730 to 4753 and retest the breakout.

Around 4753 is a potential resistance zone, that can send the market back downward into the lows once again

I would normally associate the current price action with another retest of the monthly lows in April, thus forming a double bottom before the market has the potential to move upwards.

If the S&P remains above it's support levels, then there's a potential rise upwards during the 2nd Quarter starting in April.

If the S&P fails support levels, then there is a larger reversal pattern taking place.... (read Below)

SPI Primary & Secondary cycles, along with the Monthly Range

The SPI is now following Set-up B or C.

The Price action in February was following Set-up A;- a bounce off the monthly 50% level, and whilst above 4807 the bias was to follow the trend towards the 2nd Quarter highs @ 5093-96.

That changed this week, with the market failing to remain above 4807, followed by the breakout of the Weekly lows @ 4772, and the continuation down towards the March lows

There are now two larger reversal patterns playing out…

#B) Has reached support and now rises upwards in the short-term, but then forms a double monthly low pattern in April.

The next upward trend aligns with the 2nd quarterly 50% level (Yellow)

#C) Support fails in the S&P 500 and the SPI continues to trend down towards 4442

Read US Index Report

Aussie Index (SPI) 5 March 2011 Weekly

2011-03-04T15:26:00.000-08:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

At the moment I'm treating the Aussie Market using orderly patterns with an upward bias in MARCH and APRIL.

The view is that most stocks have reversed down from their February highs (double monthly highs) and found support.

This would normally see the 3rd month continue up towards the following Quarterly highs in April, as part of a larger trend towards 5093, as previously mentioned

In the short-term, there is a gap at 4807, which matches critical levels in the SPI....

the Weekly level and the March 50% level @ 4806-07

Once again, my view of the trend moving higher is going to be determined by the price action in US markets, as was the case last week, when we saw early weakness in the S&P 500 during the first 2-days, as the market reversed down into critical support levels.

Unless the S&P 500 is trading below 1300 (& March 50% level), and the SPI is below 4807, then the trend is remains stable.

This stability is now based on US markets.

READ US Index report

Aussie Index (SPI) 26 Feb 2011 Weekly

2011-02-25T15:20:00.000-08:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

As noted in last week’s report, the market remains in an orderly upward trend unless the market is trading below 4881-3

This changed last Monday when it was superseded with the breakout of the 5-day lows @ 4894.

The reversal of the trend was back into trailing weekly support levels @ 4767, which were only verified once the S&P followed the same pattern, and found support @ 1295, resulting in the SPI moving up on Friday.

Looking at the bigger picture:- we have an 2-month wave pattern that has reversed down from the February highs and back into trailing support levels, during the first Quarterly cycle in 2011

Those Weekly support levels have held, and the market is now moving into a short-term counter-trend move upwards, as the next month is about to begin (MARCH)

If the market is going to continue higher, then it will obviously follow the monthly range in MARCH and push upwards once again, using next week’s 50% level @ 4844 as a trend guide.

There are two possible patterns over the next 5-days…

#1 remains orderly, and continues towards next Week’s highs, as part of a move towards the MARCH highs

#2 moves back towards the original breakout @ 4881-83, stalls and then starts trading below the Weekly 50% level once again, as March begins

If that happens then there is the potential for more weakness if the market begins trading below the monthly 50% level in MARCH.

We should all keep an eye on how the S&P 500 trades over the next 2-days, as this could help set-up the overall trend over the next few weeks.

Read US market report.

Aussie Index (SPI) 19 Feb 2011 Weekly

2011-02-18T15:41:00.001-08:00

SPI monthly and Weekly

Whilst the market remains above 4883, there is a trend bias to continue higher, and move towards 5093 by the 2nd Quarter.

At this stage the Australian market is following the trend within the Weekly ranges in
an orderly manner.

There will be levels within the daily range (not shown above) that will provide random resistance points of 21 to 42 points

However, unless the market is trading below 4883, then I can't see too much weakness in the short-term.

Aussie Index (SPI) 12 February 2011 Weekly

2011-02-11T14:31:00.000-08:00

The SPI will be hitting major resistance levels next week...

first quarterly highs @ 4883 next week, which also matches the Weekly highs @ 4881.

Those levels will be seen as resistance, however the Australian market will once again follow any leads from the S&P" (Previous Weekly Report)

SPI Monthly and Weekly

The SPI has moved up into the February highs and stalled around the resistance levels, closing lower of Friday.

These Monthly highs now completes the 2-month wave pattern within the current Quarterly cycle

Personally, I wouldn't want to buy into the market at these levels. I would want to see the market move back down into trailing support levels.

However, as noted in last week's report...

Our market will dance to the tune of the S&P 500, as it continues up towards 1331 on Friday, resulting in our market opening higher once again. (next week)

Therefore, even though my view is that the SPI has hit resistance at these levels, and I would like to see it come back down into trailing support zones

I also noted that there is a larger Primary cycle pattern, trying to push the market up towards 5093 by the 2nd Quarter in 2011

Therefore, the SPI can continue to move higher next week...

And any weakness will be helped by the market trading below 4857, and rotating back towards the Weekly 50% level.

Aussie Index (SPI) 5 February 2011 Weekly

2011-02-04T17:09:00.000-08:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

In last week's report I wasn't so bullish because of the price action in the S&P 500.

However, that quickly changed when both markets moved back above their Weekly 50% levels....

And the SPI has followed the trend into the monthly highs in February...

And likely to reach the first quarterly highs @ 4883 next week, which also matches the Weekly highs @ 4881.

Those levels will be seen as resistance, however the Australian market will once again follow any leads from the S&P (Read US market report).

SPI Yearly and Monthly

The SPI will be hitting major resistance levels next week...

However, as noted at the start of the year

http://austindex.blogspot.com/2010/12/aussie-index-spi-1stjanuary-2011-weekly.html

there is a 2011 Primary trend that can see the market continue towards 5093, by the 2nd Quarter

Aussie Index (SPI) 29 January 2011 Weekly

2011-01-28T14:16:00.000-08:00

My view is that the SPI will try and move upwards again:- 2-day rise from Friday's lows @ 4725

But any strength in the market can be easily offset if US markets reverse down next week

Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly and Weekly

The Australian market began with a 2-day rally using the Weekly 50% level as support, however as noted in the previous weekly report.... it's the price action in the S&P 500 that's going to offset that stability based on US markets reversing down from their January highs "

As the S&P 500 reversed down on Friday, the SPI is back into critical support levels once again, but this time I'm not factoring in a 2-day rise early next week (less probability)

How the Australian market plays out over the next 2-weeks will be determine whether the S&P 500 follows SET-UP A or SET-UP B (read the US market report).

Any further weakness below support levels can see the market drop back down into 4560

Aussie Index (SPI) 22 January 2011 Weekly

2011-01-21T14:59:00.000-08:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

The Trend in the Australian market continues to remain stable, as long as US markets don't reverse down from their January highs.

What we saw this week was the Weekly 50% level @ 4741 provide support early in the week for a move towards the Weekly highs @ 4828.

The expectation was for the market to continue towards the January highs @ 4844, however, weakness followed when the S&P reversed down and the SPI opened below 4810.

SPI Weekly and 5-day range

Next Week:- my view is that the SPI will try and move upwards again:- 2-day rise from Friday's lows @ 4725

But any strength in the market can be easily offset if US marekts reverse down next week (read US report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 15 January 2011 Weekly

2011-01-14T15:57:00.000-08:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Start of the new Quarterly cycle has seen Support hold @ 4657.

The trend was verifed with price trading back above 4703, and the followed by Thursday's breakout of the 5-day high @ 4734.

Expectation is that the trend will continue towards the January highs, and then follow the move towards the February high:- target @ 4883.

Once again any upside it dependant on US markets not reversing down from their own higher timeframe levels, as it nears 1300 (2011 high) (read US Report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 8th Jan 2011 Weekly

2011-01-07T14:21:00.000-08:00

SPI Futures (Australian Market)

As mentioned in last week's report, the critical level in the market is 4703....

And with Friday's close below that level, (weekly close) it is now likely to follow the Weekly pattern towards next week's lows.

Even though the market could continue to consolidate around these levels for the next couple of weeks, the Australian market isn't in synch with the US markets.

If US markets follow a move down towards their own Weekly lows, (Read US report)...

it will push the Australian market lower.

At this stage the minor timeframe cycles are bearish, as price is below both the Weekly and monthly 50% levels...

Whilst the Primary and Secondary cycles are bullish, as price is above those levels @ 4565 & 4442...

But a failure of support could see the market drift down towards those levels during the first quarter. (see previous reports for Primary and Secondary levels)

Aussie Index (SPI) 1stJanuary 2011 Weekly

2010-12-30T22:45:00.000-08:00

"In the short-term the trend remains stable with an upwards bias, however we need to keep an eye on the SPI move down into the Weekly lows @ 4692 over the next 2-weeks...

As this pattern would provide the next 'support' level for the trend to continue
towards those first Quarter highs in 2011"

Previous Weekly report.

SPI monthly and Weekly

Last day of the Primary cycle in 2010 produces a ‘flash crash’ down into the Weekly lows @ 4692.

This completes the short-term reversal pattern, and I would normally associate this pattern as the market moving down into support and then continuing higher at the start of the following Quarter:- January’s highs.

However, anything below the January 50% level @ 4703 is open to risk…

SPI Yearly

If we follow the Primary trend for 2011, our market over the next 12 months should continue up towards 5093 and could go as high as 5285....

helped by this week's price action (Weekly support), and a move towards the January highs @ 4844.

However, if I'm wrong and price is trading below 4703...

Then the critical support level in 2011 is 4442

Aussie Index (SPI) 25th DEC 2010 Weekly

2010-12-24T14:20:00.000-08:00

SPI Futures:- Dilernia Model

Trend bias is to continue towards the December highs and then up towards the January highs and the matching 1st Quarterly highs in 2011.

In the short-term the trend remains stable with an upwards bias, however we need to keep an eye on the possible SPI move down into the Weekly lows @ 4692 over the next 2-weeks...

As this pattern would provide the next 'support' level for the trend to continue towards those first Quarter highs in 2011.

Merry Christmas to you all

Aussie Index (SPI) 18th DEC 2010 Weekly

2010-12-17T14:54:00.000-08:00

SPI monthly and Weekly (Dilernia Model)

Trend remains stable and looks to be moving upwards, as long as it remains above 4760 next week.

A 2nd week reversal pattern didn't eventuate, but we would have known that, if Thursday was trading below support and was Friday closing below 4689.

If 4760 doesn't hold next week, I just think it will be a short term consolidating pattern ( Weekly 50% level @ 4690) until the end of the year, as market activity grinds into the holiday season.

Aussie Index (SPI) 11th DEC 2010 Weekly

2010-12-10T13:57:00.000-08:00

My view is to continue towards the December highs over the next 5-days...using the December 50% level as a trend guide @ 4689.

Previous Weekly report

SPI futures

The market has continued into a higher weekly close, and with a trend that looks the be heading into higher highs into the first Quarter of 2011.

However, as mentioned over 3 weeks ago...

The only pattern that will put pressure on the SPI is if the 2nd Week in December reverses down from the highs and closes below the 4689...

Next week begins the 2nd Week of December, and if next Friday is trading below 4689 then the rest of December can come under further selling pressure.

Otherwise if long stay long...but be aware.

Note:- Please refer to pages 110 & 111 of my new book, as it describes
in detail these exact same patterns that we have seen over the
past number of weeks

Aussie Index (SPI) 4th Dec 2010 Weekly

2010-12-03T14:06:00.000-08:00

“Once support has held the up trend begins to take hold in the last week of the current month (next week) and continues towards higher highs in the first Quarter of 2011.”

Previous Weekly report

SPI futures:- Monthly and Weekly

We have seen the last week of the previous month reverse upwards from support and then breakout of the 5-day highs on the first day of December.

Based on the current price action my view is to continue towards the December highs over the next 5-days...using the December 50% level as a trend guide @ 4689.

The current Weekly 50% level @ 4696 is supporting the market, but Thursday's breakout of the 5-day highs @ 4635 could see a short-term stall pattern early next week(trailing support levels)

3-day cycle lows are now all the way back down @ 4562, which can often result in a waiting game of a couple of days until the 3-day lows catch up with the current trend before the market continues upwards.

I also mentioned a potential bearish pattern appearing in December:- higher step formation.

If it does appear in the 2nd week of December, then the rotation pattern is for the market to move down towards the 2011 50% level @ 4433 (20th November).

The only pattern that I think will put pressure on the SPI is if the next 5-days moves upwards into a higher Friday close, and then the 'following week' reverses down (2nd Week) and closes below the 4689...

This can often put pressure on the market until the end of the month.

Note:- next week is the first week of Dec and the 2nd week begins from the 13th Dec

Most of the price action during this Quarter and future probable price action is clearly described in my new book.... "Market Trading Market Timing"

Aussie Index (SPI) 27th November 2010 Weekly

2010-11-26T14:37:00.000-08:00

Aus"The Trend bias is to continue down into support levels @ 4571-82.

If the market is going to go higher then these levels need to be verified by next week's close and then continue higher. This usually occurs in the last week of the current month and then pushes upwards in the first week of December from the new December Monthly 50% levels.

What we also notice is that December has a higher step formation @ 4668

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Futures

The market has moved down into the Support levels and have held for the past 4 days.

As mentioned a couple of weeks ago, once support has held the up trend begins to take hold in the last week of the current month (next week) and continues towards higher highs in the first Quarter of 2011.

However, there are two patterns that can change that view...

#1 the higher step formation in the forward month can result in a change in trend identification

#2 there's currently a Dilernia Drop in the S&P, which can continue to put short-term pressure on US markets until the end of the month (Read US Report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 20th November 2010 Weekly

2010-11-19T14:51:00.000-08:00

SPI monthly and Weekly

This quarter has seen the market follow a double monthly high pattern into November's highs and a reversal down, which is often the case as the market comes back looking for support.

The Trend bias is to continue down into support levels once again @ 4571-82.

If the market is going to go higher then these levels need to be verified by next week's close and then continue higher in December.

This usually occurs in the last week of the current month and then pushes upwards in the first week of December from the new December Monthly 50% levels into a higher weekly close.

What we also notice is that December has a higher step formation @ 4668

This can often end up a bearish pattern (please read current book regarding forward bearish patterns)

SPI Primary Cycle

We can see the market consolidating between the two Primary cycle 50% levels in 2010.

These levels will shift in 2011, with resistance disappearing @ 4964 and a potential upward trend towards 5383.

Major support levels in 2011 will be around 4433

Current Price action in the 4th Quarter has been trading above the 4th Quarter 50% level (Yellow), and recently there has been a change in the 3-period cycle (white), which now becomes support and a trend guide for the rest of this year and going into 2011

This gives more reason of the trend moving upwards over the next couple of weeks, as described in the previous chart

However, I also mentioned a potential bearish pattern appearing in December:- higher step formation.

If it does appear in the 2nd week of December, then the rotation pattern is for the market to move down towards the 2011 50% level @ 4433

Aussie Index (SPI) 13th November 2010 Weekly

2010-11-12T14:17:00.000-08:00

In the short-term, the market is either going to continue to push up towards next week's highs @ 4876 and then 4900

Or ...

we look for a minor corrective move back to retest the breakout & 4724-52

Previous Weekly report

Australian Market (Index futures SPI)

Last week began with price trading above the November highs and with the target @ 4900 in the 4th Quarter:- resistance

However, when Tuesday opened below the November highs @ 4791 then the trend changed with a short-term reversal pattern down into 4752

And once 4752 couldn't hold, the trend bias was to move from a higher weekly open and continue to reverse down from the November highs into a lower Weekly close.

At this stage the market looks to be once again moving into a consolidation pattern within the weekly levels.

And higher timeframe support @ 4582

Aussie Index (SPI) 6th November 2010 Weekly

2010-11-05T15:54:00.000-07:00

SPI Futures

Market continues towards the 4th Quarter target @ 4900

Helped by the S&P 500 moving higher on the news that the Fed is about to print $600 Billion to stimulate the economy.

In the short-term, the market is either going to continue to push up towards next week's highs @ 4876 and then 4900

we look for a minor corrective move back to retest the breakout & 4724-52

Note:- 4900 is the target for this Quarter.

This level may resist the trend for a number of weeks, or it may not (December)

What that means is, the 'THRUST PATTERN' from the Secondary cycle @ 4582 can last 2 quarters and continue into higher highs by 2011.

If we follow the primary cycle, that can be as high as 5200.

for the market to move towards 5200, banking stocks need to find support in November and then begin a gradual rise from the start of December.

Aussie Index (SPI) 29th October 2010 Weekly

2010-10-29T13:53:00.000-07:00

Trend guide during this Quarter is to continue towards 4900....

But for next week, it looks like more consolidation between the Weekly levels.

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Futures

Australian market continues to consolidate during October.

Upside target remains 4900 in the 4th Quarter.

Ideal pattern is for the market to test support levels in November using a lower Weekly close

and then continue upwards over the next 2-months towards 4900.

Stock traders on the 'long side' don't want see price trading below those support levels during November, as the upside trend will be open to risk.

Aussie Index (SPI) 22nd October 2010 Weekly

2010-10-22T15:07:00.000-07:00

"based on the current price action in global index markets, there is a possibility that the rest of October moves into a sideways pattern until the start of November using 4582 as a trend guide and Support"

Previous Weekly report

SPI monthly and Weekly

This week has seen another 5-days of sideways price action, as the Australian market continues to consolidate above 4582, whilst the S&P 500 continues to consolidate below 1182.

Trend guide during this Quarter is to continue towards 4900....

But for next week, it looks like more consolidation between the Weekly levels.

Aussie Index (SPI) 15th October 2010 Weekly

2010-10-15T15:51:00.000-07:00

Australian Index (SPI futures)

Upside target in the 4th Quarter remain 4900, however as mentioned in last week's report, our market will begin to lose steam once the S&P reaches 1182.

based on the current price action in global index markets, there is a possbility that the rest of October moves into a sideways pattern until the start of November using 4582 as a trend guide and Support.

If that happens then this will lend to more gains later in the 4th Quarter.

Note:- resource stocks have moved upwards during the 4th quarter whilst banking stocks have remained flat.

We might see a change from next week and a rotation pattern occuring in both (banks higher), whilst Resouce stocks take a breather

Aussie Index (SPI) 9th October 2010 Weekly

2010-10-08T15:19:00.000-07:00

SPI monthly and Weekly

Shift in market dynamics from the 3rd quarter into the 4th Quarter and a new trend pushing up from the 50% levels @ 4582 after forming resistance in September

Upside target is 4900 in the 4th quarter...

However, there is resistance around the October highs, and the current price action doesn't lend to the market breaking out of the October highs

My concern is not whether the Australian market continues up towards 4900, because fundamentally the market is sound.

My concern lies with the S&P 500 around 1182 (Read US market Report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 2nd October 2010 Weekly

2010-10-01T16:15:00.000-07:00

Resistance 4672-76

If the market is below 4658, then I'll look for a 'short' trade set-up from Wednesday onwards, as part of a rotation back down"

Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly and Weekly

SPI continued to move higher last week until Wednesday's 'sell' pattern appeared around the Weekly highs @ 4724

The break of 4658 was then confirmed on Thursday, as part of an expected rotation down into higher timeframe support levels.

As my Weekly reports have been saying for a number of week's now, 4672-76 is a major resistance zone, which has now shifted in the 4th quarter (less resistance)

My ideal pattern would be to see a rotation back down into the October 50% level:- form support and then HOOK back above 4582...for a continuation up towards 4900 over the next 2-3 months during the 4th Quarter.

If the SPI can make it's way down towards 4514 and then reverse using a lower weekly open...then the first target would be 4900, as I'm not expecting the October highs to 'stall' price.

If the SPI closes above the October highs at the end of the month, then my view is that the trend is going higher until the start of 2011.

Note:- All long-term analysis and expectations must be optimised using lesser timeframe patterns (Weekly) to help validate the view

If the SPI doesn't move down into 4514 but continues to move upwards using the Weekly 50% level as a support level, then the 4th Quarter will more likely zig-zag within the monthly levels (October highs resistance) with an upwards bias towards 4900

Aussie Index (SPI) 25th September 2010 Weekly

2010-09-23T23:37:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Expectation that SPI would hit resistance @ 4672-76 has played out.

The reversal pattern down into the monthly 50% levels hasn't played out, as 4602 continues to support the market this week

My expectation is for the trend to continue upwards in the 4th quarter.

However, the ideal pattern would be to see a rotation back down into the October 50% level:- form support and then HOOK back above 4584.

For a continuation up towards 4895 over the next 2-3 months during the 4th Quarter, as long as the market remains above the 4th Quarter 50% level

Next Week:- trend guide is 4658 depending on the price action in the US

if the market is below 4658, then I'll look for a 'short' trade set-up from Wednesday onwards, as part of a rotation back down

Note:- US markets have rallied on Friday putting the SPI above those resistance levels (4672-76) for Monday's open

My preferred pattern is not to see the Market continue to rally next week towards 4895, but that could be the case based on the price action in US markets.

Aussie Index (SPI) 18th September 2010 Weekly

2010-09-17T15:46:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

The Aussie market has reached 4672 in the 3rd quarter and has hit major resistance levels.

My view is that the 4th Quarter can continue higher towards 4895...

However, in the mean time there are two possible patterns that may play out depending on the price action in the S&P 500.

#1) Continues back down into the September 50% level:- support @ 4443

#2) drifts lower over the next 2-weeks and then aligns with the 4th Quarter 50% level for a push towards higher highs @ 4895

Next Week:- My view is that the S&P 500 is going to start the week with a continuation of a 2-day reversal pattern, which is going to put pressure on the Aussie market.

As mentioned in last week's report:- a reversal pattern in our market will be helped by higher timeframe resistance levels and then verified by a 5-day low breakout

The key level will be 4593 from Wednesday onwards.

Aussie Index (SPI) 11th September 2010 Weekly

2010-09-10T17:00:00.000-07:00

Market dynamics suggests higher highs next week, and there are a number of resistance levels that will come into play around the September and Weekly highs.

Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Last week saw the market reverse down into trailing support levels @ 4526 and then continue up towards the September highs:- 4628

The upside target during the 3rd quarter is 4672, which may or may not reach, as the current price action the looks to be losing some momentum around these monthly highs.

Any weakness during the next 2 weeks would see the SPI back down into the September 50% levels once again @ 4443, verified by a 5-day breakout.

The trend direction is going to be helped or hindered by the trend direction in the S&P 500, (READ US Index Weekly Report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 4th September 2010 Weekly

2010-09-03T18:46:00.000-07:00

Australian Market is well supported around the Yearly 50% level @ 4295

Based on the current pattern along with long set-ups pointed out for BHP and banking stocks (the Stock Report) the Australian market needs to move above the September 50% level for a swing towards 4672 (#B)

I'm confident in the price action for the Australian market to continue higher, however I'm not confident in the price action in the S&P 500

Previous Weekly report

SPI Weekly

The shift in market dynamics from August into September help provide the Thrust pattern upwards this week and should continue towards 4672 during the 3rd quarter in September.

Even though the Australian looked supported I still needed to see the S&P follow that same pattern to help validate my view (read US report).

Market dynamics suggests higher highs next week, and there are a number of resistance levels that will come into play around the September and Weekly highs.

Aussie Index (SPI) 28th August 2010 Weekly

2010-08-27T16:46:00.000-07:00

SPI monthly and Weekly

Australian Market is well supported around the Yearly 50% level @ 4295

Based on the current pattern along with long set-ups pointed out for BHP and banking stocks (the Stock Report) the Australian market needs to move above the September 50% level for a swing towards 4672 (#B)

This month has seen a double weekly low pattern (this week's lows) and price now is rotating back into the monthly 50% levels for September

I'm confident in the price action for the Australian market to continue higher, however I'm not confident in the price action in the S&P 500, and I've mentioned this for a number of weeks now, that the market is being held back by the S&P 500.

If that continues to play out in the S&P 500 (read US market Report), then the next long set-ups in the Australian will align with the S&P 500 hitting 970

Aussie Index (SPI) 21st August 2010

2010-08-20T14:54:00.000-07:00

"Fundamentally and technically the Australian market looks in much better shape than the US, with the S&P likely to come under more pressure.

The longer term charts suggest more weakness whilst below the August 50% levels.

However, 3rd quarter consolidation can see more 5-day patterns that remain range bound between the Weekly levels"

Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Australian market consolidates between the Weekly levels during the past 5-days whilst the S&P 500 continues to move down, as the market remains below the August 50% levels.

The price action in the US is an anchor on the Aussie Market.

Next week's range once again will be determined by support levels @ 4383, and likely swing back towards the Weekly 50% levels.

What happens in the S&P 500 is going to effect the Australian market, and at this stage it looks like more consolidation until September.

Aussie Index (SPI) 14th August 2010

2010-08-13T15:48:00.000-07:00

"There is a possible 2-day UP move beginning next week, however, if the 3rd day drops back below 4512 then August could move into a consolidation phase:- rotation with a downward bias towards the Weekly lows"....

Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Last week began with an UP move, but by the 2nd day price had closed below 4512, and the 3rd sold down into the Weekly lows @ 4330.

Currently the market is in a 3rd Quarter consolidation pattern and trading around the Yearly 50% level @ 4295.

Fundamentally and technically the Australian market looks in much better shapethan the US, with the S&P likely to come under more pressure.

The longer term charts suggest more weakness whilst below the August 50% levels.

However, 3rd quarter consolidation can see more 5-day patterns than remain range bound between the Weekly levels.

Next Week's Trend guide @ 4373

Support 4287

Aussie Index (SPI) 7th August 2010 Weekly

2010-08-06T15:33:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

The SPI is currently trading around minor resistance levels in August:- 4565.

With the current price action in the S&P on Friday, I would have an expectation that the trend will try and continue towards next week's highs @ 4606 and then 4672.

As long as price remains above 4512.

There is a possible 2-day UP move beginning next week, however, if the 3rd day drops back below 4512 then August could move into a consolidation phase:- rotation with a downward bias towards the Weekly lows:- 3rd quarter consolidation

At this stage the trend remains with an upwards bias.

Aussie Index (SPI) 31st July 2010 Weekly

2010-07-30T17:33:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

July 50% level @ 4487 has stalled the Australian market from rising.

The next week begins August with the critical trend line being 4467.

Based on the current patterns in the S&P on friday I would have the view that next week will begin with a 2-day up move and likely to continue towards 4565.

At stage the 3rd quarter looks like it's consolidating with an upward bias towards 4672 in September, as price follows the Weekly patterns in an orderly manner.

As long as price remains above the trailing Weekly 50% level and 4467 the trend bias is up

Aussie Index (SPI) 24th July 2010 Weekly

2010-07-23T16:14:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Australian market remains consolidating above the Yearly 50% level @ 4296, and now following the Weekly range upwards....

And probably continue higher next week

At this stage Global markets look to be consolidating for the 3rd Quarter.

SPI Daily 17th July 2010 Weekly

2010-07-16T15:26:00.000-07:00

Australian Index (SPI Futures)

The Aussie market is currently consolidating around the Yearly 50% level @ 4295, and has been for the past 8 weeks.

I don't think the Market is going to begin a new trend upwards, whilst the S&P 500 is trying to move downwards (Read US market Report).

Next Week will depend on the price action that occurs in the S&P 500....

Either the SPI continues to trend down towards the July lows...

or remains range bound between the Weekly levels

Aussie Index (SPI) 10th July 2010 Weekly

2010-07-09T15:39:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly

This week has seen the Australian Market continue to be supported around the Yearly 50% level @ 4295 and swing back towards the Monthly 50% levels in July.

"I'm expecting a swing back towards the monthly 50% levels, but then the most likely pattern would be an entire Quarter that consolidates in a sideways pattern until the last month (September) of the Quarter".....Previous Report

Sadly, the precise Swing set-up didn't play out, as I was expecting the market to move slightly lower towards the July lows (support) before the up move began.

At this stage I still have the view that this Quarter will continue to consolidate between the monthly lows and as high as 4672.

SPI Weekly

Last' week view was a swing into the Weekly 50% level @ 4332 and a sell pattern down into the July lows (2 week pattern)

This began to play out until the S&P had closed above it's own Weekly 50% level confirmed with a 5-day high breakout, and the SPI followed the trend upwards.

Next Week:- trend guide the Weekly 50% levels.

If Above the market is pushing upwards and following the monthly swing.

If below then it is part of the consolidation during this Quarter.

Aussie Index (SPI) 3rd July 2010 Weekly

2010-07-02T16:49:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

last month rejection of the 3-month 50% level will often drive down into the following monthly lows in the new Quarter, which is the July lows.

There is a 3-week low breakout from last week @ 4278 that should extend down into next week lows.

July's lows are seen as support, but it will need to be verified with a breakout of the 5-day highs. or matching support with US markets reaching their Yearly 50% levels (read US Index reports)

This is important because often 3rd Quarter lows don't hold during bear markets and we are also trading below the Yearly 50% level @ 4296.

Therefore anything below the July lows is seen as an extension down into the Yearly lows around 3400 and a quick bounce back upwards.

If July's lows hold support, then I'm expecting a swing back towards the 3-month 50% levels, but as mentioned previously, the most likely pattern would be then an entire Quarter that consolidates in a sideways pattern until the last month of the Quarter.

Aussie Index (SPI) 26th June 2010 Weekly

2010-06-25T16:24:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Last week's reversal pattern from the Weekly highs and back below the June 50% level @ 4519 normally follows the move down into the July lows. (3rd Quarter lows).

Next Week's 50% levels will be the trend guides.

The 3rd Quarter lows can support the Aussie market and then the trend moves into a 3-month sideways pattern (large consolidation pattern) between the 3-month lows and the 3-month 50% levels until October. (4th Quarter)

However, it will depend on the S&P 500 and whether a 3rd Quarter move continues down into the Yearly 50% level @ 969.

Aussie Index (SPI) 19th June 2010 Weekly

2010-06-18T14:17:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Yearly 50% level Support @ 4295 and now this week has closed above the 3-Quarterly 50% level @ 4522 and has remained supported without selling down.

Based on the current patterns and also the price action in the S&P 500 (Read US Index report)....

The Australian market looks like following the Weekly ranges upwards next week and into July (2-weeks)

The market could continue to consolidate around the June 50% level for the next 2-weeks until the start of the 3-Quarter and a new 3-month cycle (new trading set-ups)...

But at this stage I would treat the Aussie market as following the Weekly ranges upwards, as long as it remains above 4519.

Note:- looking at the large cap stocks (BHP, RIO, and Banking stocks), there are no bullish patterns appearing as yet or 'buy' set-ups.

The Yearly 50% levels in the XJO and Miners are supporting the market along.

BUY set-ups may appear in the 3rd Quarter. (Read Stock Report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 12th June 2010 Weekly

2010-06-11T16:59:00.000-07:00

SPI monthly and Weekly

Yearly 50% level @ 4296 continues to support the SPI and the market is trading back around the June 50% levels.

There are no leads from US markets that the trend is going to continue higher, as the 3-Week highs can send the S&P back down, or it keep in consolidating during June

At this stage I'm treating the Aussie market as consolidating in June (no Weekly close above the monthly 50% levels).

Last Week started from a lower Weekly open and a swing back towards the June 50% level

Next week starts from a higher Weekly open and trading around resistance levels.

Trend guide @ 4522.

Aussie Index (SPI) 5th June 2010 Weekly

2010-06-04T15:50:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

As pointed out in the previous Weekly reports, the price action below the MAY lows was bearish and there is a possible continuation down in June.

Whether it gets towards the June lows isn't a high probability pattern, as the Yearly 50% level @ 4295 can continue support the Australian Market.

I would have preferred to have seen Monday sell off from the June 50% level, than Monday opening lower, as the market can swing back upwards ( short-term counter-trend move)

The down trend is will be dictated by the price action in the S&P, and even though I'm bearish, the Australian market can continue to consolidate and swing around in the early part of June.

SPI Yearly and 3-Quarterly

We can see the Australian market sell from the 3-year 50% level and now trading around the single Yearly 50% level in 2010 @ 4296

This either going to have the Australian market move into a larger consolidating pattern until 2011, or it's going to continue down into the 2010 Yearly lows @ 3394 to 3061.

That will only happen if the S&P 500 continues down towards 969.

What do we notice about the SPI and the Yearly timeframe?

There is a breakout of the 2008 yearly lows but a failure to complete the move down into the 2009 lows.

The Australian Market was dragged upwards by the S&P 500, as those markets provided the Yearly swing low patterns in March 2009.

Therefore I have a feeling that the Yearly low pattern still needs to complete in 2010.

Therefore if I'm right, then around 3394 is the time to be moving back into the market and hold long term. It might dip lower to around 3061, but it won't spend much time below 3394.

We can verify using lesser timeframe (monthly) to time the market better, but I wouldn't be sweating on it.

I might be wrong and it doesn't get that low, but again it's too early to be moving into stocks just yet.

June lows might provide support in the early part of the month, but not so much in the last week of the 3rd month in the Quarter.

Aussie Index (SPI) 29th MAY 2010 Weekly

2010-05-28T16:30:00.001-07:00

Weekly report written 15th August 2009....

"3d Quarter 'thrust' pattern into the 2009 Yearly 50% level has completed from the March lows.

Any further UP moves would need to align with the 4th Quarter 50% level,and continue up from the 4th quarter 50% level and into the highs, which aligns with the Yearly 2010 highs.

If that happens then price can push back down into the Yearly 50% level in 2010 and consolidate for a number of Quarters during next year and move into a long term sideways pattern until the 2nd half of 2010"

SPI Monthly and Weekly

9 months later and this pattern has played out precisely in the Australian market.

The Yearly 50% level in 2010 is supporting the market and we can now moved into a multi-sideways consolidation pattern.

In the short-term there is a breakout of the MAY lows, therefore there is an expectation that price will try and move downward in June using the 50% level as a trend guide next week.

Note:- Weekly timeframe remains in MAY until the end of next week.

However, what happens if the S&P 500 follows the same pattern and moves down into the 2010 50% level, that is 100 points lower or 1000 points in the DOW.

Some of the biggest sell offs occur in the last month of the Quarter as price begins the month at the 50% level.

Even though the Aussie market looks like it can consolidate, the worrying pattern is the S&P 500 and the current patterns that are occuring right at this moment.

What happens if the S&P follows last year's forecast...

That can put the Aussie market down around 3400 (Yearly lows) and probably the bottom of the cycle lows for 2010.

In conclusion:- It's too early to get comfortable with current support levels

Aussie Index (SPI) 21st MAY 2010 Weekly

2010-05-21T16:50:00.000-07:00

SPI monthly and Weekly

After reading the US market report there is an expectation that US markets are moving up towards their June 50% levels.

If that is the case this is going to push the Australian Market upwards, however based on price trading below the 3-Quarterly 50% level this could see the SPI struggle to close above 4522 by the end of MAY.

Based on current patterns the trend guide next week is 4356 using the daily timeframe (sycom closed 4358).

If the SPI is trading below @ 4356 then the Aussie market is consolidating until the end of the month, as price remains below the MAY lows and the 3-quarterly 50% level.

If the SPI is trading below 4522 by the end of the month, then there is the expectation of a move lower in June:- break and extend pattern in the single month timeframe (red channels)

In conclusion:- the market remains in a breakout with a downward bias and any higher moves next week are seen a minor swing patterns and consolidation until June.

Aussie Index (SPI) 15th MAY 2010 Weekly

2010-05-14T15:33:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

MAY lows supporting the market, whilst the Weekly 50% level in the 24 hour market is supporting the market after the expected 2-day reversal on Thursday into a lower Friday close

As per previous Weekly report there is an expectation that price is heading towards the June lows, however the MAY lows and 3-Quarterly 50% level can continue to support the market until June.

Which means price can consolidate and move towards the June 50% level but then push down towards the June lows and the Yearly 50% level @ 4295.

Next Week's 50% level and lower Weekly open is the trend guide which can see the Aussie market move into a 2-3-day UP swing, as long as it remains above Weekly 50% level.

Australian Market 8th MAY 2010 Weekly

2010-05-07T14:13:00.000-07:00

SPI monthly and Weekly

Last week I was bullish on our market based on the MAY 50% levels and continuing towards the highs, however my concern were US markets as they didn't have the same patterns.

Once the daily closed below the Weekly lows and MAY 50% level the bias was to continue back down into the MAY lows.

Currently the MAY lows are supporting the market, but after reading the US report, there is an expectation that the trend is moving towards the June lows in the following month, which aligns with the Yearly 50% level @ 4295.

If US markets start with a 3-day UP move next week, then the SPI will be back into the MAY 50% level, and from next Thursday the down trend can resume.

Aussie Index (SPI) 1st MAY 2010 Weekly

2010-04-30T15:34:00.000-07:00

SPI monthly and Weekly

SPI completes the reversal pattern from the April highs towards the monthly 50% levels in MAY.

As per previous Weekly report....

http://austindex.blogspot.com/2010/04/aussie-index-spi-3-april-2010-weekly.html

Therefore the market is trading around support and with the expectation that the SPI is moving towards the 2nd Quarter highs @ 5156-5170:-

higher high 2-month wave pattern into JUNE

Confirming pattern is a breakout of the 5-day highs and trading above the Weekly 50% level.

My only concern about this pattern failing is the levels where US markets are currently trading....

I'd be much more confident if US markets were also trading around their monthly 50% levels. (read US report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 24 April 2010 Weekly

2010-04-23T16:17:00.000-07:00

SPI monthly and Weekly

The Aussie market has continued down but the US markets have failed to follow with the double top patterns and have continued higher.

3-week lows support and Friday 5-day low support should see next week start with a 2-day UP move:- random length.

It's a bit too early to tell what will happen after a 2-day UP move, as price isn't rising up from the monthly support levels in MAY.

However, we could see a move back towards the April highs by the end of next week and continue towards the 2nd Quarter highs in MAY.

Aussie Index (SPI) 17 April 2010 Weekly

2010-04-16T15:09:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

SPI trading around resistance and as per previous reports, for the SPI to continue towards 5170 the most robust pattern is to revisit the 3-month 50% levels.

This is based on a 2 timeframe wave using the quarterly timeframe:- the 3-Quarterly 50% level in the first Quarter and continues towards the highs in the following quarter.

And along the way following another text book pattern using a lesser timeframe & 2-monthly wave pattern, in this case the monthly 50% during this Quarter and another 2 month wave pattern upwards.

The reversal pattern from these highs and the expectation of a down move needed to wait until the DOW had completed it's break and extend patterns in April @ 11082, and because of this I'm looking for the trend to continue down.

And Orderly Text book pattern would be moving into the MAY 50% level and then heading higher.

However, it's not about the Aussie market, it's about US markets.

If US markets follow #3 (Read US report), then the Aussie market could follow another double monthly low pattern, but this time using the single monthly lows not the 3-month lows.

As we can see the first monthly low is @ 4686

Aussie Index (SPI) 10 April 2010 Weekly

2010-04-09T15:37:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

2nd Quarter target 5170+

Weekly high resistance should continue towards next week's highs and April's highs.

I still subscribe to the view that the next best set-up towards 5170 should occur from the monthly 50% levels, which may take 4-6 weeks to unwind.

Up trend currently helped by US markets break and extend patterns from March highs into April's highs (Read US report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 3 April 2010 Weekly

2010-04-01T18:39:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly

Start of the 2nd Quarter and expectation during this 3-month cycle is that the trend will continue towards 5170+

However, the SPI is still trading below the 3-year 50% level @ 4969 and in my opinion can continue to form a resistance zone until price retests the 3-month 50% levels.

In the first Quarter we have had a double monthly low pattern in February and a move towards the high in March:- resistance

The red channels are the single monthly range. We can see a breakout of the monthly highs @ 4767, which in theory should continue to push slightly higher in April but then rotate back down towards the monthly 50% levels.

There are two possible patterns during the 2nd Quarter...

A:- retests the 50% levels and continues towards the Quarterly highs @ 5170+

B:- finds support but continues to consolidate until MAY

Why?

The most robust UP trends often coincide with both the 3-month 50% levels and also the single monthly low (red), which is currently @ 4686.

That means that if April 50% level supports the market the monthly low will shift higher in MAY (B) and provide a better set-up to breakout of the 3-yearly 50% level and continue towards 5170+

These are a few of principles that I subscribe to...

1. all trends originate from 50% levels and push outward
2. breakout of the timeframe will continue until the next timeframe is reached:- break & extend
3. trends follow wave patterns of 2:- month & Quarter

In the above example we can see price trading above the March 3-month 50% level and heading into the March highs.

However the important pattern was not only the trend moving up from the March 50% level, but at the same time breaking out of a timeframe high:- single month

The breakout was the single month high of February:- RED.

That means there are two princples occuring at the same time....

1. Trend pushing outward from the 50% level.
2. break and extend pattern into April's highs.

The current resistance in March disappears and around April’s levels the risk increases, because the short term breakout pattern will complete, but it doesn’t mean the price will reverse down into a new 'bear-trend'

It’s simply a completion pattern:- break & extend pattern during a Quarterly cycle from one month into the next.

The 2nd Quarter Target remains @5170

Because we are treating each Quarter as its own cycle, for those wanting to Buy back into the market would need to be patient and use the 50% levels as support once again during the next cycle.

Because price is has tested the 3-Quarterly 50% level in February the expectation remains that the Trend is following a 2 Quarterly pattern towards the highs in the 2nd Quarter (5170)

Aussie Index (SPI) 27 March 2010 Weekly

2010-03-26T14:55:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly

Quarter coming into an end, with upside targets in the 2nd Quarter @ 5100+

SPI trading around the March highs with the expectation that price is going to continue higher in the 2nd Quarter.

This up move into the March highs completes a 2-month wave pattern during this Quarterly cycle, and if trading on the BUY side (stocks) we want to look for the next 'long' set-up during the next Quarterly cycle.

The most ideal set-up to capture any longs in the market would be a rotation back towards the April 50% level.

There isn't a breakout of the 3-month highs, but there is a breakout of the single monthly highs @ 4727 (red).

Because there is a breakout I would treat the market as a break & extend pattern during the single month, which means it's more likely to push upwards in early April before it rotates back downward.

SPI Weekly and 5-day range (24 hour market)

The medium term trend is defined by the Weekly 50% level, so it won't take much for the market to change with price trading below.

Trend guide on Monday @ 4930, and there is still the possibility that next week begins with a 2-day down day based on the Friday 5-day highs resistance.

If the trend is going to continue higher it can remain above the Weekly 50% level and continue up until April begins:- first Quarter target 5107

If price does drops below the Weekly 50% level, then the 3-week lows is the support zone for the next leg upwards.

Aussie Index (SPI) 20 March 2010 Weekly

2010-03-19T15:14:00.000-07:00

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Based on market dynamics and where my view of US markets are going into 2010 (read US report).... I favour the SPI (Aussie Market) still following SET-UP B.

SET-UP B:- retests the 3-month 50% level in the 2nd quarter and then continues up towards 5190

In the Short-term with the price acton in the DOW, I would favour a rotation back towards the Weekly 50% level, but the SPI could remain above the Weekly 50% level until the end of the Quarter. (March)

Aussie Index (SPI) 13 March 2010 Weekly

2010-03-12T14:27:00.000-08:00

SPI Monthly & Weekly

At this stage the expectation is that the Australian market is heading higher.

We can see the Weekly highs match the March highs, and if everything follows a 'text-book' pattern the market should continue towards higher highs in the 2nd Quarter.

However, things might look like they are going higher, but the price action in the S&P 500 differs.

Read US report

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/2010/03/s-e-mini-13th-march-2010-weekly.html

SPI Daily 6th March 2010 Weekly

2010-03-05T14:26:00.000-08:00

SPI monthly and Weekly

Last week's 2-day UP move started the ball rolling with a move above the March 50% level, and helped by the S&P heading into the February highs @ 1138.

Expectation price is heading higher in the next Quarter towards the 2nd Quarter highs.

The most robust pattern for any higher moves would have to be the March highs stalling price, and then moving higher in the 2nd Quarter using the 3-month 50% levels.

In the short-term I would have to treat the SPI supported above 4727-4759 for the rest of this Quarter, but capped under the March highs.