Aussie Index (SPI) 27th March 09 Weekly

SPI Monthly

The Aussie Market has continued the move from the March lows, above the monthly 50% level and should be completing the move into the March-April highs.

Was that the low of the Market????

I don't think so, and Personally it's time to get out of any longs in the markets especially the financials.

I can't see the Aussie market moving higher than the April levels, and I would expect a pullback into the April 50% level.

And I won't be looking for a any Buying opportunties until MAY.

There are two plays in the 2nd Quarter:-

1. a Two month consolidating trading pattern, which can see MAY's lows finding support above the 50% level for another push upwards.

2. April collapse to complete my view of the Primary Trend down into 2780


SPI Yearly

The 2009 Yearly lows haven't reached , and this current price action that we are seeing is simply a corrective move of the 4th Quarter breakout 2008, and first Quarter reversal pattern from support back into the 50% level.

There is a breakout of the 2008 lows, with the expectation that the market needs to complete the larger timeframe pattern lower:- 2780

Along with the Quarterly level reversal pattern that is occurring now, price is simply retesting the breakout of the 2008 lows and should continue down in the 2nd Quarter.

If the Yearly lows are going to be reached, then the 2nd Quarter should sell off and April should be trading below support, and finally complete the move down in MAY.

Therefore my next long term swing set-up is based on the Month of May.

I'm comfortable BUying a higher MAY if it's above the April 50% level, because price can move towards the Yearly 50% level @ 4597...

But, I would prefer to wash out the market with 1 last push down to complete the move in MAY and buy into the market once again around the Yearly lows.

That's been my view all along, and this current upswing is simply a secondary corrective move in a larger Primary down trend.

Once that occurs, then that WILL BE THE LOW of the BEAR Market.

Aussie Index (SPI) 21st March 09 Weekly

SPI Monthly

The Australian index completes the move into the March 50% level and stalls after reversing upwards from the Monthly low (support) pattern in March.

These 50% levels are and have been major trend guides, as all trends originate from 50% levels and then extend outward.

But more importantly it's the Quarterly midpoint that's going to let traders know the trend direction:- does it continue higher or continue down into the Yearly low targets?

I still have a lower Yearly target to complete the Primary trend, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the market move up from April and into the 3-months highs.

I mentioned week's ago that an early move down into the Monthly lows could provide a 25-30% up swing in the market, and if that's the case that move would take it into April's highs.




SPI Weekly

At this stage there is still over 1 week to go until April begins, and I'm looking for next week to simply move into a 5-day sideways pattern, with the Weekly 50% levels supporting price and the Monthly 50% level resisting price.

There is a breakout of the Weekly highs, and normally price would continue with the break and extend upwards.

The potential to continue upwards in April should find support around the 5-day lows and Weekly 50% level and have a higher Weekly close.

If these lesser timeframe support zones (Weekly 50% level and 5-day lows) don't hold, then the Monthly 50% level continues to be a major rejection pattern to lower prices from the 2nd Quarter towards the Yearly low targets around 2770.

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Aussie Index (SPI) 14th March 09 Weekly

SPI Monthly

SPI moved down into the March lows, and the reversal upwards was driven by US markets hitting the March lows precisely.

Expectation the Australian Market will continue towards the March 50% level, but it will then be defined by the April 50% level.

Either it continues towards the 3-month highs;- fair Value

Or because I believe there is a larger Primary down target in the 2nd Quarter, that price is going to be pushed down in the 2nd quarter before it finds a much more robust support zone in 2009 around 2770.

SPI Weekly

Cross over of the Weekly 50% level was first confirming pattern that the lows in March were in, and price should continue towards the Weekly highs early next week.

SPI 5-day pattern

But the verification started earlier with the 5-day filter breakout @ 3162...

But more importantly, any change of trend begins with a breakout of the 5-day pattern.

This breakout on Wednesday leads to a higher close by Friday...

And trading around Monday's highs next week.

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Aussie Index (SPI) 7th March 2009 Weekly

SPI Monthly

SPI slowly making it's way down towards the March lows, whilst US markets have reached theirs.

March lows are random support, but there is a larger trend driving this market lower, towards 2900, and 2770.

But even around 2770 won't be the low of the market, as there is a lesser trend that will be defined by the monthly low that will give the most robust reversal pattern, as was the case in 2003.



SPI Weekly

Weekly lows random support next week and the Weekly 50% level resistance within the 5-day pattern.

Any upside next week will be dependant on US markets holding their March lows.




SPI 5-day pattern

The previous week saw a 5-day channel breakout after a number of days consoldating in 44-87 point ranges.

The down trend was confirmed with the break of the 5-day lows @ 3248, and then the rest of the week spent rotating and following the 5-day patterns.

Once again the most robust levels to trade from were using the Spiral points along with any 5-day range within the market.

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