Aussie Index (SPI) 1st August Weekly

SPI Monthly

3rd Quarter thrust pattern towards 4400.

Based on Market dynamics the move towards 4400+ might take until September to reach.

At this stage the trading range in August are the highs and the Support the 50% levels.

SPI Weekly

If the SPI moves up into early August towards the August highs, then my view is for price to 'stall', with a potential move down into Support levels and then complete the move towards 4400 in the following month.

However, my view is to start the new week and new month with a short-term 2-day pullback within the 5-day pattern...



SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Lasts week's view was for Monday to continue high because of the 5-day breakout from the previous Friday.

After a 2-day reversal into the 5-day 50% level, it set-up up a rally towards the highs on Thursday and a continuation on Friday into' precise highs @ 4215.

Based on this pattern, I'm looking for a short-term 2-day pull back early next week, but with the view of higher prices in August.

Aussie Index (SPI) 25th July Weekly

SPI Monthly

The SPI has rallied and completed the 'precise' top in July @ 4120

We have seen the past 3 months have the same patterns, and the SPI has moved back down into a rotating pattern, as it moves UP towards 4400 in 2009

Each reversal pattern has also started from a higher Weekly open, and we begin the trading week with a Higher Weekly open next week.

However, even though we have the exact same pattern now as previously, we have to optimise the pattern to each individual Quarter. And this Quarter we have a 'Thrust' pattern that can continue UP as part of the larger trend.....

And follow a 2x monthly wave pattern UP into August, which is coming into 'Reporting' season

SPI Weekly

It's a simple pattern next week:- if the SPI reverses down then the first reversal Target is the Weekly 50% level @ 3958.

If the SPI continues up next week, then it is towards 4200+ and will hit 4400 in August:- 2 x Monthly wave pattern upwards in the 3rd quarter.

It makes it hard to think it will continue UP if there hasn't been a higher Weekly close above 4120, and the trading week will start from a higher Weekly open.

SPI 5-day pattern

As pointed out in the daily report on Friday, I wasn't expecting too much downside because of the Thursday high Break.

Regardless of the levels in the higher timeframes, the larger timeframe patterns need to be optimised using 5-day pattern recognition techniques;- Dilernia Principles.

Whilst daily patterns and intra-day trading are optimsied using support & resistance along with 'Spiral points' & range trading

And on Monday price should continue UP towards Monday's highs:- 4115-'4130'

normally that will push up 42-44 points.

This is the pattern that we need to see happen if the SPI is going to reverse down....

The SPI can't spend too much time above 4130 on Monday

However, it's not what Monday does, but where Tuesday 'opens'

If Monday stalls around 4115-4130...

Then Tuesday needs to open below the 5-day 50% level @ 4065, which will set-up a move down into the 5-day lows, and hopefully continue down towards the Weekly 50% levels:- higher Weekly open reversal pattern down from Monthly resistance

Otherwise and higher move on Monday could open higher on Tuesday (if US markets move upwards) , and anyone shorting above 4130 will be putting themselves at Risk, as a 3rd Quarter Thurst pattern will breakout and continue UP in August.

Aussie Index (SPI) 18th July Weekly

SPI Monthly

Ever since the March lows and subsequent rally into the June highs @ 4088, there was an expectation that the market would rotate back down into the July 50% level and then continue towards 4400 in the 3rd quarter.

That larger trend reversal was based upon price trading above July’s 50% level, and last week that wasn’t the case, so the UP move was open to risk of following a 2-month wave pattern downward.

However, based on the ‘fake’ break and this week’s reversal back above the July 50% level, there is now the view that I’ve had for a number months now : -primary trend reversal towards 4400.

There are July highs @ 4067, which can resist price…

But based on a 3rd quarter ‘thrust’ pattern from the 50% level, 4067 can breakout and continue to move higher into August highs.



SPI Weekly

I mentioned that to become bullish on the BUY side the SPI had to be trading back above 3906, which occurred this week. However, the Daily close above the Monthly 50% level along with US markets closing above their 5-day highs..

The continuation upwards was already in motion, which has been my view for a number of months now.

Next Week:- trend and support levels are the Weekly 50% level, with the expectation price is heading upwards.

Aussie Index (SPI) 11th July Weekly

SPI Monthly

As per the previous Report, the next move in the market was based on the direction price took in relation to the 3rd Quarter 50% levels.

With last week closing the 2nd Quarter below the 3rd quarter 50% level any UP trend was open to Risk.

Whenever price crosses over the Monthly 50% level I factor in a 2-month wave pattern following the Monthly ranges. We had this pattern play out on the recen UP move from March lows and the 2nd Quarter....

And as per 'Dilernia Principles' and the model, I'm now factoring in a 2-month wave pattern down into August.

In July we have the Monthly support levels @ 3584, which may or may not support price because of the larger trends pushing the market down.

However, if 3584 does support price in July, I'm still factoring in a 2nd monthly down move in August at this stage.


SPI Weekly

I'm looking for a continuation down into the Weekly and July lows next week.

The 3-cycle will be the trend guide @ 3763

If price can't close above 3763 and breakout of the 5-day high, then the SPI should continue down into the lows.

If there is a 5-day high breakout, then price is moving back towards the July 50% level and Weekly 50% level:- resistance.

Aussie Index (SPI) 4th July Weekly

SPI Monthly

"I've been harping on for a couple of months that the SPI is going to go higher in the 3rd quarter towards 4400... based on current price action and trading around the 3rd quarter 50%, there is a potential Thrust pattern in play...

Thrust pattern:- is a trend originating from the Monthly 50% levels in the new Quarter.

However, we first have to deal with next week's higher Weekly open (Expectation of a 2-3 day down move) , and it might take another 5-days of trading until next week closes to verify any continuation upwards.....

Previous Weekly Report

Based on Friday's close and next Week's open (below the 3rd Quarter 50% level), that UP move in the 3rd Quarter is now open to RISK of dropping down into July's lows and continuing down into August lows 2x Monthly wave pattern in lower lows.

And that will depend a lot on US markets and the trend they take...


http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

SPI Futures Weekly

Last Week's early sell pattern was helped by US market JOBS data, and at this stage...

The Weekly 50% level and July's 50% level should be used as resistance for a continuation downward.

The only way for the Australian Market to continue higher, is if US markets actually move UP in the 3rd Quarter...

And our market follows helped by Financials....

At this stage I wouldn't be buying into stocks until there is at least some consolidation above 3907.

Because whilst price is below the 3-Quarter 50% level there is a potential to revisit the recent lows in March:- 'Secondary trend' is now back in a 'sell' pattern bear trend.