Aussie Index (SPI) 29th October 2010 Weekly

Trend guide during this Quarter is to continue towards 4900....

But for next week, it looks like more consolidation between the Weekly levels.

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Futures

Australian market continues to consolidate during October.

Upside target remains 4900 in the 4th Quarter.

Ideal pattern is for the market to test support levels in November using a lower Weekly close

and then continue upwards over the next 2-months towards 4900.

Stock traders on  the 'long side' don't want see price trading below those support levels during November, as the upside trend will be open to risk.

Aussie Index (SPI) 22nd October 2010 Weekly

"based on the current price action in global index markets, there is a possibility that the rest of October moves into a sideways pattern until the start of November using 4582 as a trend guide and Support"

Previous Weekly report

SPI monthly and Weekly

This week has seen another 5-days of sideways price action, as the Australian market continues to consolidate above 4582, whilst the S&P 500 continues to consolidate below 1182.

Trend guide during this Quarter is to continue towards 4900....

But for next week, it looks like more consolidation between the Weekly levels.

Aussie Index (SPI) 15th October 2010 Weekly

Australian Index (SPI futures)

Upside target in the 4th Quarter remain 4900, however as mentioned in last week's report, our market will begin to lose steam once the S&P reaches 1182.

based on the current price action in global index markets, there is a possbility that the rest of October moves into a sideways pattern until the start of November using 4582 as a trend guide and Support.

If that happens then this will lend to more gains later in the 4th Quarter.

Note:- resource stocks have moved upwards during the 4th quarter whilst banking stocks have remained flat.

We might see a change from next week and a rotation pattern occuring in both (banks higher), whilst Resouce stocks take a breather

Aussie Index (SPI) 9th October 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Shift in market dynamics from the 3rd quarter into the 4th Quarter and a new trend pushing up from the 50% levels @ 4582 after forming resistance in September

Upside target is 4900 in the 4th quarter...

However, there is resistance around the October highs, and the current price action doesn't lend to the market breaking out of the October highs

My concern is not whether the Australian market continues up towards 4900, because fundamentally the market is sound.

My concern lies with the S&P 500 around 1182 (Read US market Report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 2nd October 2010 Weekly

Resistance 4672-76

If the market is below 4658, then I'll look for a 'short' trade set-up from Wednesday onwards, as part of a rotation back down"

Previous Weekly report
 

SPI Monthly and Weekly

SPI continued to move higher last week until Wednesday's 'sell' pattern appeared around the Weekly highs @ 4724

The break of 4658 was then confirmed on Thursday, as part of an expected rotation down into higher timeframe support levels.

As my Weekly reports have been saying for a number of week's now, 4672-76 is a major resistance zone, which has now shifted in the 4th quarter (less resistance)

My  ideal pattern would be to see a rotation back down into the October 50% level:- form support and then HOOK back above 4582...for a continuation up towards 4900 over the next 2-3 months during the 4th Quarter.

If the SPI can make it's way down towards 4514 and then reverse using a lower weekly open...then the first target would be 4900, as I'm not expecting the October highs to 'stall' price.

If the SPI closes above the October highs at the end of the month, then my view is that the trend is going higher until the start of 2011.

Note:- All long-term analysis and expectations must be optimised using lesser timeframe patterns  (Weekly) to help validate the view

If the SPI doesn't move down into 4514 but continues to move upwards using the Weekly 50% level as a support level, then the 4th Quarter will more likely zig-zag within the monthly levels (October highs resistance) with an upwards bias towards 4900