Aussie Index (SPI) 1stJanuary 2011 Weekly

"In the short-term the trend remains stable with an upwards bias, however we need to keep an eye on the SPI move down into the Weekly lows @ 4692 over the next 2-weeks...

As this pattern would provide the next 'support' level for the trend to continue
towards those first Quarter highs in 2011"

Previous Weekly report.

SPI monthly and Weekly

Last day of the Primary cycle in 2010 produces a ‘flash crash’ down into the Weekly lows @ 4692.

This completes the short-term reversal pattern, and I would normally associate this pattern as the market moving down into support and then continuing higher at the start of the following Quarter:- January’s highs.

However, anything below the January 50% level @ 4703 is open to risk…



SPI Yearly

If we follow the Primary trend for 2011, our market over the next 12 months should continue up towards 5093 and could go as high as 5285....

helped by this week's price action (Weekly support), and a move towards the January highs @ 4844.

However, if I'm wrong and price is trading below 4703...

Then the critical support level in 2011 is 4442

Aussie Index (SPI) 25th DEC 2010 Weekly

SPI Futures:- Dilernia Model

Trend bias is to continue towards the December highs and then up towards the January highs and the matching 1st Quarterly highs in 2011.

In the short-term the trend remains stable with an upwards bias, however we need to keep an eye on the possible SPI move down into the Weekly lows @ 4692 over the next 2-weeks...

As this pattern would provide the next 'support' level for the trend to continue towards those first Quarter highs in 2011.

Merry Christmas to you all

Aussie Index (SPI) 18th DEC 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly (Dilernia Model)

Trend remains stable and looks to be moving upwards, as long as it remains above 4760 next week.

A 2nd week reversal pattern didn't eventuate, but we would have known that, if Thursday was trading below support and was Friday closing below 4689.

If 4760 doesn't hold next week, I just think it will be a short term consolidating pattern ( Weekly 50% level @ 4690) until the end of the year, as market activity grinds into the holiday season.

Aussie Index (SPI) 11th DEC 2010 Weekly

My view is to continue towards the December highs over the next 5-days...using the December 50% level as a trend guide @ 4689.

Previous Weekly report

SPI futures

The market has continued into a higher weekly close, and with a trend that looks the be heading into higher highs into the first Quarter of 2011.

However, as mentioned over 3 weeks ago...

The only pattern that will put pressure on the SPI is if the 2nd Week in December reverses down from the highs and closes below the 4689...


Next week begins the 2nd Week of December, and if next Friday is trading below 4689 then the rest of December can come under further selling pressure.

Otherwise if long stay long...but be aware.



Note:- Please refer to pages 110 & 111 of my new book, as it describes
in detail these exact same patterns that we have seen over the
past number of weeks

Aussie Index (SPI) 4th Dec 2010 Weekly

“Once support has held the up trend begins to take hold in the last week of the current month (next week) and continues towards higher highs in the first Quarter of 2011.”

Previous Weekly report

SPI futures:- Monthly and Weekly

We have seen the last week of the previous month reverse upwards from support and then breakout of the 5-day highs on the first day of December.

Based on the current price action my view is to continue towards the December highs over the next 5-days...using the December 50% level as a trend guide @ 4689.

The current Weekly 50% level @ 4696 is supporting the market, but Thursday's breakout of the 5-day highs @ 4635 could see a short-term stall pattern early next week(trailing support levels)

3-day cycle lows are now all the way back down @ 4562, which can often result in a waiting game of a couple of days until the 3-day lows catch up with the current trend before the market continues upwards.


I also mentioned a potential bearish pattern appearing in December:- higher step formation.

If it does appear in the 2nd week of December, then the rotation pattern is for the market to move down towards the 2011 50% level @ 4433 (20th November).

The only pattern that I think will put pressure on the SPI is if the next 5-days moves upwards into a higher Friday close, and then the 'following week' reverses down (2nd Week) and closes below the 4689...

This can often put pressure on the market until the end of the month.

Note:- next week is the first week of Dec and the 2nd week begins from the 13th Dec

Most of the price action during this Quarter and future probable price action is clearly described in my new book.... "Market Trading Market Timing"