SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 26th MAY 2012

Around next week's lows could see a short-term counter-trend move upwards, as part of retesting the MAY lows (resistance)

 But, the Australian stock Market is going to struggle to rise higher than 4143/64 for the rest of this Quarter  (Previous Weekly Report)

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

The Market didn't make it down into the Weekly lows, but it did test 4143, which formed resistance and pushed the stock market lower

The overall target remains around 3785 based on the Primary cycles

The Trend bias is also part of the break and extend pattern from the MAY lows into the June lows.

However, there is 1 week to go in MAY, and often price can rotate upwards into the following monthly 50% level...(June)

and then once again rejected down into the June lows, completing the break and extend pattern :- SUPPORT

Next week's lows @ 3961 will determine whether there is a counter-trend move up into the June 50% levels or not.

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 19th MAY 2012

like all Good Support levels, the market is often dictated by it's lesser timeframe cycles....(Weekly)..

 and if it's going to continue down into the 2nd Quarterly 50% level and MAY lows @ 4143/64, then the shift in the Weekly cycles (lower lows) can provide the road map for further weakness.

Trend guide Weekly level @ 4293

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

The MAY 50% level along with the Weekly level @ 4293 help set-up further weakness towards the MAY lows and 2nd Quarterly 50% level

which was a target zone, and also a Support zone (4143/64)

However, as we have seen, that support zone failed to hold once the S&P 500 failed to hold its own MAY lows @ 1315.50, resulting in further weakness that could see the SPI move as low as 3785 in 2012

Around next week's lows could see a short-term counter-trend move upwards, as part of retesting the MAY lows (resistance)

But, the Australian stock Market  is going to struggle to rise higher than  4143/64 for the rest of this Quarter

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 12th MAY 2012

there is an expectation that for the trend to continue higher it needs to revisit support during the current Quarter. That Support resides around 4252/54.

So if you want to get back into the current trend, then that's the area of interest.

However, as a footnote I also mentioned the possibility that if it breaks Support it will continue down into the 2nd Quarterly 50% level (Yellow), which has always been my overall support zone.

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

4252/54 has held support , and if the market is going to continue upwards, then the Weekly level @ 4293 will provide the trend guide early next week...

We currently have the same price action during this Quarter as the previous three Quarters:- dynamic Support

However, like all Good Support levels, the market is often  dictated by it's lesser
timeframe cycles....(Weekly)

and if it's going to continue down into the 2nd Quarterly 50% level and MAY lows, then the shift in the Weekly cycles (lower lows) can provide the road map for further weakness.

Trend guide Weekly level @ 4293

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 5th MAY 2012

The SPI is trading around the monthly highs, which is currently acting as resistance.... and may continue to do so until it pulls back into trailing Support levels.

If that's going to repeat during this Quarterly cycle, then the trailing single monthly lows (RED) in the future months "a window into the Future' are levels that should be of interest for traders looking to 'TIME' longs once again.

Note:- A break of monthly support will result in a minor break and extend pattern towards the Quarterly 50% level (Yellow) Previous Weekly Report.

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

As mentioned in last week's report, there is an expectation that for the trend to continue higher it needs to revisit support during the current Quarter.

That Support resides around 4252/54.

So if you want to get back into the current trend, then that's the area of interest.

However, as a footnote I also mentioned the possibility that if it breaks Support it will continue down into the 2nd Quarterly 50% level (Yellow), which has always been my overall support zone.

Because what we notice using past history to define probable future moves is that...

the breaks of support often occur during the month of MAY, extend down into lower lows (JUNE/JULY) and then find support.

Therefore 4252/54 can and may continue to follow the same patterns for the past 3 Quarters and support the trend.

or it's going to follow a similar pattern as past years and break support and extend lower