Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 13 December 2015 Report

"As noted in the previous report, the BEAR-Market pattern often extends towards the 2016 lows, If we use historical patterns clearly described in my book :-Market Trading Market Timing, then we should see some consolidation around the current 2015 lows, but then further weakness from the 4th Quarter down into the 1st Quarter lows some time in March 2016

If that plays out, then I'd look to move back into Long positions in the Aussie Market 6 months from now, using the 2016 lows as support & entry"  (September Report)

SPI Primary Cycles

As you probably aware I'm bearish on the Aussie Market, and so far the market is consolidating around the 2015 lows.  

If we follow the pattern as previously described, the Market should be heading down towards 4600. and if it's reaching those lows around March, then it's a good time to rock & roll. 

Note:- Market Trading Market Timing is probably the best T.A book on the market. 

Merry Christmas.

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 30th November 2015 Monthly Report

SPI Primary Cycles

My view is that the Australian Market will try and move lower in the early part of 2016 until it reaches those 2016 lows. 

However, as noted in the previous report, the rest of the year it could move into a sideways pattern. 

Long term bias is down.

Keep an eye on the 2016 50% level as a trend guide/resistance zone in early 2016.

Note:- no signs of Weakness appearing in US markets (Read S&P 500 Report)

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 13th November 2015

SPI Primary Cycles

 My view is that the stock market is heading lower, but it is likely to find support around the 2015 lows @ 4990-5065 until the end of the year. (Previous Report)

As we can see the Market has revisited the Support zone after hitting the 2015 50% level.

My view is that the Australian Market will try and move lower in the early part of 2016 until it reaches those 2016 lows.

However for the rest of the year it could move into a sideways pattern around support.

Long term bias is down.

Keep an eye on the 2016 50% level as a trend guide/resistance zone in early 2016

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET SPI FUTURES 1st November 2015 Monthly Report

Primary & Weekly Cycles

We can see in the above chart, the Primary Cycles and levels having a major influence in the trend and also the major turning points in the market. 

From the exact highs at 6005 and the exact lows @ 4750, and now the 2015 50% level forming resistance.

My view is that the stock market is heading lower, but it is likely to find support around the 2015 lows @ 4990-5065 until the end of the year.

When we look at the Weekly cycles, the trend bias remain robust in the short-term defined by the November 50% level and Weekly lows.

Therefore those 2 levels @5213 & 5116 are your short-term random support zones within a larger Primary Cycle that's wanting to move lower.

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 4th October 2015 Monthly Report

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

Read the previous report to get my view on the market, where & when.

Trend bias is to follow the Primary Cycles towards the 2016 lows, as the market remains in a 3rd Quarter breakout, which is currently forming resistance.

Australia Stock Market SPI Futures 12th September 2015 Monthly Report

SPI Primary & Weekly cycles

We also have to acknowledge the SPI is now officially in a bear trend, and bear markets often follow trends lower into 2016. (2-pattern extension into the following yearly lows)

Therefore any short-term support must treat the 2015 50% as resistance for the rest of the year. (previous Report)

The Australian Market has continued its dramatic sell-off extending its low towards the 100% level of the Yearly Timeframe @ 4750

As noted in the previous report, the BEAR-Market pattern often extends towards the 2016 lows, If we use historical patterns clearly described in my book :- Market Trading Market Time, then we should see some consolidation around the current 2015 lows, but then further weakness from the 4th Quarter down into the 1st Quarter lows some time in March 2016

If that plays out, then I'd look to move back into Long positions in the Aussie Market 6 months from now using the 2016 lows and SUPPORT & ENTRY

Australian Stock Market SPI futures 24th August 2015

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

As noted in the Previous Report, I still wanted to see some downside in the Australian market, as it hadn't followed the 'TEXT-BOOK' support patterns.

We can now see the Market sell-off began with the breakout of the Weekly lows @ 5474, and likely to move down into this week's lows @4969, and ideal zone to be looking for a short-term swing pattern.

We are also testing the 3rd Quarter lows.

We also have to acknowledge the SPI is now officially in a bear trend, and bear markets often follow trends lower into 2016. (2-pattern extension into the following yearly lows)

Therefore any short-term support  (READ S&P 500 report) must treat the 2015 50% as resistance for the rest of the year

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 2nd August 2015 Monthly Report

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

The SPI didn't follow a move down into the July lows, so it hasn't followed a 'Text-Book pattern' that often captures the next move upwards. Instead price has remained within the confines of the Weekly cycles.

TEXT BOOK Pattern:- 2 month wave pattern (July lows) or monthly support pattern.

As commodity prices drop the Aussie market is now following US markets (READ US S&P500 Report)

US markets are showing more upside, therefore the robust support levels in the Aussie market resides around 5547 in August.

I would still like to see those TEXT book patterns play out, and that might happen some weeks from now, as the market moves into a multi-week consolidation pattern (3rd Quarter Consolidation into the 4th Quarter)

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 4th July 2015 Monthly Report

                                

                                                  Primary & Weekly Cycles

 " There is also a pattern within the Weekly cycle that  often forewarns more weakness"           (Previous Monthly Report)

  As we can see in the above chart, the Weekly breakout pattern at the start of the previous month has seen the market follow the 'Dilernia Principle" of Break and Extend pattern downward into the following Weekly lows and now more than likely follow the trend down into the July Lows.

Normally in Primary Bull Trends the July low is a pattern to keep an eye to capture the next wave upwards, however the Secondary Cycle (Quarterly/Yellow) is showing weakness, as it's trading below 5547.

Most markets are waiting on Greece being saved or kicked out, if it's the latter then the potential move for the rest of the year is down towards 5172 and then continue lower into the 2016 lows.

A July low bounce and move back above 5547 should see another rise upwards into the end of the year, even though commodity prices are showing weakness. (READ US Report & Gold Report)

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 8th June 2015

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

The Australian Stock Market is back into the BUY Zone @5484.

Do you BUY here?

If you're working on statistics within the Primary Cycles (LONG TERM), then this is the zone you want to be moving back into the MARKET.

5484 is the BUY zone in the 2nd Quarter, and if it's going to rise once again then Price should continue higher in the 3rd Quarter from July using the future level.

However, both GOLD & IRON ORE has more downside, whilst the S&P 500 is showing signs of further weakness.

There is also a pattern within the Weekly cycle in the above chart that often forewarns more weakness; Friday's close below the June lows.

Page 34 of Market Trading Market Timing...

Use Sequential ordering of pattern formations

1. Apply the trend identification Model

2. Identify Support,Resistance, & Trends

3. Identify the change of Support & Resistance with the use of TIME

4. Forewarn & Foretell the likely events in the future using Principle SET-UPS

Principle Set-up:- potentially a break & extend pattern from the June lows into the July lows

READ GOLD & S&P 500 Reports

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 25th MAY 2015

                                                       SPI Futures Primary & Monthly cycles

I've been bearish on the Aussie market ever since the SPI Futures hit 6005, and looking at the Monthly cycles the current trend suggests there is a downward 2-month wave pattern towards the June lows, and as far as the July lows. (3rd Quarter)

This aligns with the market dropping towards the BUY zone within the Primary cycles.

The interesting pattern appearing now is happening in US markets (Read the S&P 500 Report)

Even though the BUY zone @ 5484 appears in the Primary cycle, it's the trend within the Monthly cycles that help define the timing of the trade. (READ BOOK)

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 4th MAY 2015

SPI Primary & Weekly Charts (click to enlarge)

The Australian Market is now consolidating between the EXIT Zone of 6005 and above the 2014/15 highs, which is forming a support zone.

However, helping to keep the Australian Market around these highs is also the Trend bias in the US markets, as they push upwards to complete targets in their own Primary Bull Trends (READ US Report)

The Australian Market is now trading around the MAY 50% level @ 5761, but there is a tiny bearish pattern in the Weekly timeframe that could see a mini break and extend pattern downward towards 5688.

Like I said some weeks ago, once the Australian Market reached 6005, I'm more than happy to exit,  sit, and wait until the Market retraces into the BUY zone once again. 

I'm also bearish on GOLD, (READ GOLD Report)

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 30th March 2015 Report

As mentioned in the last report:- 5691 was going to act as support and push up towards 6005... The question is... do you want to be holding LONGS once again once 6005 is reached?  I know I wouldn't, unless there's a pullback within the Quarterly cycles  (Previous Report)

SPI Primary & Weekly cycles

As noted in the previous report, it was time to get out of the market once the SPI hit 6005 (overnight 6011).

As noted in the previous report, the next term long is around the BUY zone, which is currently 5482.

The current price action is very similar to the high reached in MAY 2013 and reversal down into the BUY zone.

However, the only difference between the two patterns is that the price action in 2013 was occurring within a break & extend pattern in the Quarterly cycles, whereas this current high is still part of the current Quarterly breakout @ 5691.

Therefore there is still the potential that the market has another go at a higher high in the 2nd Quarter as part of the extend pattern, and that will depend on the price action in US markets (S&P 500 Report)

But for me, I'd rather sit on the sidelines and wait for the pullback.

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 3rd March 2015

The Trust pattern upwards from the 2015 50% level and now a close above 5691 is extremely bullish to continue higher 
 Therefore 5691 is seen as support, as the trend can continue to move higher until the 2nd Quarter (April) 6005 is the current target.     Previous Report

SPI Primary & Weekly cycles

As mentioned in the last report:- 5691 was going to act as support and push up towards 6005...

The question is...  do you want to be holding LONGS once again once 6005 is reached? (potentially the MARCH highs)

I know I wouldn't, unless there's a pullback within the Quarterly cycles :- Monthly 50% levels

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 9th February 2015

SPI Primary & Weekly cycles

As mentioned in the previous report, the Australian Market is back into a Bull trend. & has now completed the move into the 2015 highs.

Unlike my view last year to dump stocks around the 2014 highs, this time it's different

The Trust pattern upwards from the 2015 50% level and now a close above 5691 is extremely bullish to continue higher

Therefore 5691 is seen as support, as the trend can continue to move higher until the 2nd Quarter (April)

6005 is the current target.

AUSTRALIAN Stock Market SPI Futures 28 January 2015

SPI Primary Cycles 2015

If you've been following my reports for a while now, you'd know that I've been bearish on the Australian Market since reaching the 2014 highs. 

Normally with the alignment of the 2015 50% level, this would put pressure on the Primary cycles to move lower, as was the case with the first few weeks in January.

However, if you've read my US reports (S&P 500), you know I've been bullish, and the price action in the US has helped the Australian Market remain stable, and based on this week's price again once again move into a BULL trend. (Above 2015 50%)

However, the important pattern in the Australian market is the price action of the Precious Metals (GOLD & Silver). I was Bullish on Silver but not so much on Gold.

Both those markets now have the potential to rise upwards after being depressed for the past 2 years, which gives reason to underpin the Australian Market. (READ GOLD Report).

If GOLD & Silver is going to Rise, then keep an eye on the AUD/USD (Read Forex Report)

Australian Stock Market SPI futures 1st January 2015

SPI Primary & Weekly cycles

The 2014 50% level has supported the Australian Stock Market, and as mentioned in the previous report, the US markets continue to look bullish, which was enough to drag the Aussie market upwards and close out the 2014 Primary cycle right at a critical level.

As mentioned in previous reports, the 2015 50% level @ 5377 is going to define the trend for the next 2 years, especially if it's trading below it. 

If you look at precious metals (read Gold Report) my view is that there is weakness in those commodities which is enough to push our market down into the 2015 lows, however US markets continue to look bullish. 

As we can see the SPI is going to open above on the January 50% level @ 5355 which is going to define the short-term trend.

Read S&P report

http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com.au/