SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles.
READ the S&P Report,
but 7006 is the interest zone for any reversals down
Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 3rd November 2019 Monthly Report
SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles
Primary Trends have over-riden the minor trends, as seen with the price action in the Weekly cycles.
Normally, if there's a break of the Weekly lows, as seen at the start of October, price will continue down into the following Weekly lows, using the Ocotber 50% level as resistance.
This didn't happen, confirmed with a breakout of the 5-day highs and above the October 50% level
During Primary cycles, the 100% level (6775) is often seen as a Target, Exit and/or a shorting zone.
However, the probability drops in the 4th Quarter, as markets try and extend upwards into the new Primary cycle highs.
6775 is a random resistance zone
4th Quater target is 7006
Dont trade longs below the Weekly lows @ 6570
Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 5th October 2019
SPI PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES
My ideal scenario is, to see the SEPT 50% level push the market down into the Monthly lows, which aligns with the 4th Quarter 50% level in October for the next move higher.
However, it won't surprise me to see it go back up to 6775
Markets moved upwards in September, with the SPI moving back up towards 6775.
Weekly price action suggests more weakness due to the Weekly breakout pattern even after overnight rallies in the US markets.
Resistance October 50% level @6600
I still think Markets will go higher into 2020, but I would idealy like to see it move as low as 6175 before it moves higher.
Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures 2nd September 2019
SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles
WHEN IT HITS 6775, I WOULDN'T WANT TO BE HOLDING LONGS, AS IT RARELY SPENDS MUCH TIME ABOVE THIS LEVEL IN THE PRIMARY CYCLE
6775 IS A LEVEL YOU WOULD LOOK FOR SET-UPS TO CAPTURE SHORTS FOR REVERSALS INTO LOWER LEVELS, AS PART OF A TREND THAT'S GOING HIGHER
We've seen a top in the Market around 6775, however it's still above the Yearly highs in 2019 with the expectation that it's going higher in 2020.
My ideal scenario is, to see the SEPT 50% level push the market down into the Monthly lows, which aligns with the 4th Quarter 50% level in October for the next move higher.
However, it won't surprise me to see it go back up to 6775
Trend line 50% level @ 6550
Random resistance Weekly highs @ 6665
Support - 6245/62
Australian Stock Market SPI futures 5th August 2019 Monthly Report
SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles
WHEN IT HITS 6775, I WOULDN'T WANT TO BE HOLDING LONGS, AS IT RARELY SPENDS MUCH TIME ABOVE THIS LEVEL IN THE PRIMARY CYCLE
6775 IS A LEVEL YOU WOULD LOOK FOR SET-UPS TO CAPTURE SHORTS FOR REVERSALS INTO LOWER LEVELS, AS PART OF A TREND THAT'S GOING HIGHER. (previous report)
The SPI hit 6775 and stalled.
Looks to be moving down towards the AUGUST 50% level @6587
The August 50% level is a random support zone, that may hold for a number of days. (look for 5-day high breakouts)
However, a failure of it holding and the SPI will move down into the Yearly high Support levels @ 6383 - 6262
I still think markets will be higher in 2020
AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET SP FUTURES 30TH JUNE 2019 REPORT
SPI PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES
STOCK MARKET LOOKS TO BE MOVING TO THE 100% RANGE AT 6775.
IT CAN MOVE UP EARLY AT THE START OF THE 3RD QUARTER, IN JULY
OR
IT CAN MOVE DOWN INTO THE JULY 50% LEVEL, WHICH IS ABOVE THE YEARLY HIGHS AND THEN GO HIGHER
IN CONCLUSION
THE MARKET IS GOING HIGHER UNTIL 2020
HOWEVER, WHEN IT HITS 6775, I WOULDN'T WANT TO BE HOLDING LONGS, AS IT RARELY SPENDS MUCH TIME ABOVE THIS LEVEL IN THE PRIMARY CYCLE
6775 IS A LEVEL YOU WOULD LOOK FOR SET-UPS TO CAPTURE SHORTS FOR REVERSALS INTO LOWER LEVELS, AS PART OF A TREND THAT'S GOING HIGHER.
AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET - SPI FUTURES 9th June 2019
SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles
BULLISH towards the 100% level in the Primary cycles @ 6775
Random resistance in JUNE @ 6542
Support June 50% level 6337 (& yearly highs @ 6262)
Australian Stock Market - SPI Future 28th April 2019 Monthly Report
SPI Futures Primary & Weekly cycles
The Market hit resistance @6262 and retested the Weekly lows.
I think it's going to move higher once again in the short-term. (Previous Report)
The expectation is that the Markets are going higher into 2020 and as high at 6775 in 2019
However, I would think it would look to top out anywhere between 6465 & MAY highs and revisit the 3rd Quarter 50% level, with hopefully selling is the 2nd half of MAY
If that happens, then I would look for the next move higher, later in the year
Australian Stock Market SPI futures 1st April 2019
SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles
Major resistance 6262, aligns with the Quarterly & Yearly highs.
6262 & 6383
It's like a parabolic rise since the December lows, that I would think it needs to revisit the March 50% level or even the Yearly 50% level sometime in May / June before it goes higher into 2020-21 (Previous Report)
The Market hit resistance @6262 and retested the Weekly lows.
I think it's going to move higher once again in the short-term.
However, we want to see Markets come under pressure from MAY, so that it can retest the Yearly 50% level, which is our next BUY zone for another move higher into 2020
If weakness comes late in the 2nd Quarter, then the 3rd Quarter support levels move higher.
Expectation there will be higher highs by the end of this year and the start of 2020, so we want to be buying the dips.
(Read Book - long term investing/accumulation)
AUSTRALIA STOCK MARKET SPI FUTURES 3 MARCH 2019
SPI PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES
Major resistance 6262, aligns with the Quarterly & Yearly highs.
6262 & 6383
It's like a parabolic rise since the December lows, that I would think it needs to revisit the March 50% level or even the Yearly 50% level sometime in May / June before it goes higher into 2020-21
Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 4th February 2019
SPI Primay & Weekly Cycles
Read the previous report to get a better understanding of the current price action.
As mentioned last month, this now has the feel of the same pattern as 2011.
Weekly lows & 2019 50% level is Support
Random resistance around 6051 in this Quarter
Support in 2nd Quarter 2019 50% level for a move upwards into 2020
AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET - 6TH JANUARY 2019 REPORT
SPI PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES
The Australian Stock market has moved down 100% of the Range in 2018. We see these patterns often at the start of BEAR CYCLES.
Expectation that price will continue lower from the 2019 50% level, move down into the 2019 lows and then make higher highs going into 2020.
Even though there's bearish patterns in all INDEX MARKETS, there's too much good economic news coming out of the US for the BEAR trends not to go lower than the 2019 lows.
NOTE:- Instead of going down into the 2019 lows, Price could go up towards the Quarterly/Secondary cycles (YELLOW) by the 2nd Quarter. IF that happens then there's less likely the market will complete the move down into the 2019 lows, but kick higher in the 3rd Quarter.
PRIMARY CYCLES
We can see the 100% LOWS in 2011, 2015 and 2018.
The Question now is....
Will 2019 play out the same as 2016 (double Yearly low) or will it follow a similar pattern as 2012 and continue higher in the 3rd Quarter?
Note:- the only failure of the 100% low that didn't support the market was in 2008 during the GFC, but it completed the Bottom at the 2009 lows (double Yearly low)
Overall - BULLISH Long Term
Bearish Short-term
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