Aussie Index (SPI) 2nd October 2010 Weekly

Resistance 4672-76

If the market is below 4658, then I'll look for a 'short' trade set-up from Wednesday onwards, as part of a rotation back down"

Previous Weekly report
 

SPI Monthly and Weekly

SPI continued to move higher last week until Wednesday's 'sell' pattern appeared around the Weekly highs @ 4724

The break of 4658 was then confirmed on Thursday, as part of an expected rotation down into higher timeframe support levels.

As my Weekly reports have been saying for a number of week's now, 4672-76 is a major resistance zone, which has now shifted in the 4th quarter (less resistance)

My  ideal pattern would be to see a rotation back down into the October 50% level:- form support and then HOOK back above 4582...for a continuation up towards 4900 over the next 2-3 months during the 4th Quarter.

If the SPI can make it's way down towards 4514 and then reverse using a lower weekly open...then the first target would be 4900, as I'm not expecting the October highs to 'stall' price.

If the SPI closes above the October highs at the end of the month, then my view is that the trend is going higher until the start of 2011.

Note:- All long-term analysis and expectations must be optimised using lesser timeframe patterns  (Weekly) to help validate the view

If the SPI doesn't move down into 4514 but continues to move upwards using the Weekly 50% level as a support level, then the 4th Quarter will more likely zig-zag within the monthly levels (October highs resistance) with an upwards bias towards 4900

Aussie Index (SPI) 25th September 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Expectation that SPI would hit resistance @ 4672-76 has played out.

The reversal pattern down into the monthly 50% levels hasn't played out, as 4602 continues to support the market this week

My expectation is for the trend to continue upwards in the 4th quarter.

However, the ideal pattern would be to see a rotation back down into the October 50% level:- form support and then HOOK back above 4584.

For a continuation up towards 4895 over the next 2-3 months during the 4th Quarter, as long as the market remains above the 4th Quarter 50% level

Next Week:- trend guide is 4658 depending on the price action in the US

if the market is below 4658, then I'll look for a 'short' trade set-up from Wednesday onwards, as part of a rotation back down

Note:- US markets have rallied on Friday putting the SPI above those resistance levels (4672-76) for Monday's open

My preferred pattern is not to see the Market continue to rally next week  towards 4895, but that could be the case based on the price action in US markets.

Aussie Index (SPI) 18th September 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

The Aussie market has reached 4672 in the 3rd quarter and has hit major resistance levels.

My view is that the 4th Quarter can continue higher towards 4895...

However, in the mean time there are two possible patterns that may play out depending on the price action in the S&P 500.

#1) Continues back down into the September 50% level:- support @ 4443

#2) drifts lower over the next 2-weeks and then aligns with the 4th Quarter 50% level for a push towards higher highs @ 4895

Next Week:- My view is that the S&P 500 is going to start the week with a continuation of a 2-day reversal pattern, which is going to put pressure on the Aussie market.

As mentioned in last week's report:- a reversal pattern in our market will be helped by higher timeframe resistance levels and then verified by a 5-day low breakout

The key level will be 4593 from Wednesday onwards.

Aussie Index (SPI) 11th September 2010 Weekly

Market dynamics suggests higher highs next week, and there are a number of resistance levels that will come into play around the September and Weekly highs.

Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Last week saw the market reverse down into trailing support levels @ 4526 and then continue up towards the September highs:- 4628

The upside target during the 3rd quarter is 4672, which may or may not reach, as the current price action the looks to be losing some momentum around these monthly highs.

Any weakness during the next 2 weeks would see the SPI back down into the September 50% levels once again @ 4443,  verified by a 5-day breakout.

The trend direction is going to be helped or hindered by the trend direction in the S&P 500, (READ US Index Weekly Report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 4th September 2010 Weekly

Australian Market is well supported around the Yearly 50% level @ 4295

Based on the current pattern along with long set-ups pointed out for BHP and banking stocks (the Stock Report) the Australian market needs to move above the September 50% level for a swing towards 4672 (#B)

I'm confident in the price action for the Australian market to continue higher, however I'm not confident in the price action in the S&P 500

Previous Weekly report

SPI Weekly

The shift in market dynamics from August into September help provide the Thrust pattern upwards this week and should continue towards 4672 during the 3rd quarter in September.

Even though the Australian looked supported I still needed to see the S&P follow that same pattern to help validate my view (read US report).

Market dynamics suggests higher highs next week, and there are a number of resistance levels that will come into play around the September and Weekly highs.

Aussie Index (SPI) 28th August 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Australian Market is well supported around the Yearly 50% level @ 4295

Based on the current pattern along with long set-ups pointed out for BHP and banking stocks (the Stock Report)  the Australian market needs to move above the September 50% level for a swing towards 4672 (#B)

This month has seen a double weekly low pattern (this week's lows) and price now is rotating back into the monthly 50% levels for September

I'm confident in the price action for the Australian market to continue higher, however I'm not confident in the price action in the S&P 500, and I've mentioned this for a number of weeks now, that the market is being held back by the S&P 500.

If that continues to play out in the S&P 500 (read US market Report), then the next long set-ups in the Australian will align with the S&P 500 hitting 970

Aussie Index (SPI) 21st August 2010

"Fundamentally and technically the Australian market looks in much better shape than the US, with the S&P likely to come under more pressure.

The longer term charts suggest more weakness whilst below the August 50% levels.

However, 3rd quarter consolidation can see more 5-day patterns that remain range bound between the Weekly levels"

Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Australian market consolidates between the Weekly levels during the past 5-days whilst the S&P 500 continues to move down, as the market remains below the August 50% levels.

The price action in the US is an anchor on the Aussie Market.

Next week's range once again will be determined by support levels @ 4383, and likely swing back towards the Weekly 50% levels.

What happens in the S&P 500 is going to effect the Australian market, and at this stage it looks like more consolidation until September.