Aussie Index (SPI) 20th November 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

This quarter has seen the market follow a double monthly high pattern into November's highs and a reversal down, which is often the case as the market comes back looking for support.

The Trend bias is to continue down into support levels once again @ 4571-82.

If the market is going to go higher then these levels need to be verified by next week's  close and then continue higher in December.

This usually occurs in the last week of the current month and then pushes upwards in the first week of December from the new  December Monthly 50% levels into a higher weekly close.

What we also notice is that December has a higher step formation @ 4668

This can often end up a bearish pattern (please read current book regarding forward bearish patterns)




                                                                       SPI Primary Cycle

We can see the market consolidating between the two Primary cycle 50% levels in 2010.

These levels will shift in 2011, with resistance disappearing @ 4964 and a potential upward trend towards 5383.

Major support levels in 2011 will be around 4433

Current Price action in the 4th Quarter has been trading above the 4th Quarter 50% level (Yellow), and recently there has been a change in the 3-period cycle (white), which now becomes support and a trend guide for the rest of this year and going into 2011

This gives more reason of the trend moving upwards over the next couple of weeks, as described in the previous chart

However, I also mentioned a potential bearish pattern appearing in December:- higher step formation.

If it does appear in the 2nd week of December, then the rotation pattern is for the market to move down towards the 2011 50% level @ 4433

Aussie Index (SPI) 13th November 2010 Weekly

In the short-term, the market is either going to continue to push up towards next week's highs @ 4876 and then 4900

Or ...

we look for a minor corrective move back to retest the breakout & 4724-52

Previous Weekly report

                                                      Australian Market (Index futures SPI)

Last week began with price trading above the November highs and with the target @ 4900 in the 4th Quarter:- resistance

However, when Tuesday opened  below the November highs @ 4791 then the trend changed with a short-term reversal pattern down into 4752

And once 4752 couldn't hold, the trend bias was to move from a higher weekly open and continue to reverse down from the November highs into a lower Weekly close.

At this stage the market looks to be once again moving into a consolidation pattern within the weekly levels.

And higher timeframe support @ 4582

Aussie Index (SPI) 6th November 2010 Weekly

SPI Futures

Market continues towards the 4th Quarter target @ 4900

Helped by the S&P 500 moving higher on the news that the Fed is about to print $600 Billion to stimulate the economy.

In the short-term, the market is either going to continue to push up towards next week's highs @ 4876 and then 4900

Or

we look for a minor corrective move back to retest the breakout & 4724-52

Note:- 4900 is the target for this Quarter.

This level may resist the trend for a number of weeks, or it may not (December)

What that means is, the 'THRUST PATTERN' from the Secondary cycle @ 4582 can last 2 quarters and continue into higher highs by 2011.

If we follow the primary cycle, that can be as high as 5200.

for the market to move towards 5200, banking stocks need to find support in November and then begin a gradual rise from the start of December.

Aussie Index (SPI) 29th October 2010 Weekly

Trend guide during this Quarter is to continue towards 4900....

But for next week, it looks like more consolidation between the Weekly levels.

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Futures

Australian market continues to consolidate during October.

Upside target remains 4900 in the 4th Quarter.

Ideal pattern is for the market to test support levels in November using a lower Weekly close

and then continue upwards over the next 2-months towards 4900.

Stock traders on  the 'long side' don't want see price trading below those support levels during November, as the upside trend will be open to risk.

Aussie Index (SPI) 22nd October 2010 Weekly

"based on the current price action in global index markets, there is a possibility that the rest of October moves into a sideways pattern until the start of November using 4582 as a trend guide and Support"

Previous Weekly report

SPI monthly and Weekly

This week has seen another 5-days of sideways price action, as the Australian market continues to consolidate above 4582, whilst the S&P 500 continues to consolidate below 1182.

Trend guide during this Quarter is to continue towards 4900....

But for next week, it looks like more consolidation between the Weekly levels.

Aussie Index (SPI) 15th October 2010 Weekly

Australian Index (SPI futures)

Upside target in the 4th Quarter remain 4900, however as mentioned in last week's report, our market will begin to lose steam once the S&P reaches 1182.

based on the current price action in global index markets, there is a possbility that the rest of October moves into a sideways pattern until the start of November using 4582 as a trend guide and Support.

If that happens then this will lend to more gains later in the 4th Quarter.

Note:- resource stocks have moved upwards during the 4th quarter whilst banking stocks have remained flat.

We might see a change from next week and a rotation pattern occuring in both (banks higher), whilst Resouce stocks take a breather

Aussie Index (SPI) 9th October 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Shift in market dynamics from the 3rd quarter into the 4th Quarter and a new trend pushing up from the 50% levels @ 4582 after forming resistance in September

Upside target is 4900 in the 4th quarter...

However, there is resistance around the October highs, and the current price action doesn't lend to the market breaking out of the October highs

My concern is not whether the Australian market continues up towards 4900, because fundamentally the market is sound.

My concern lies with the S&P 500 around 1182 (Read US market Report)