The Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures 3rd MAY 2020

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

Extremely bearish on the Australian Market. 

It's consolidating below the 2020 lows, has retested the Monthly 50% levels in April and I have the expectation that it will try and move down towards the Monthly lows (B)

We now have the Weekly channels converging into each other, and it now looks like it wants to POP, but not on the upside.

Those monthly lows (B) is where to you to be buying again, but it's still and BUY and GET OUT, because of the view it's going lower into 2021.

The only thing propping up the Markets is the US FED, pumping the tyres of the US markets, but the state of the economy will soon catch up and those  US Markets will soon move to the DOWNSIDE also.

Australia Stock Market 19th April 2020 - SPI Futures

Primary & Weekly Cycles

The pattern in the Australian Stock market is the classic BEAR MARKET pattern - 

Moves up towards the previous breakout or 50% level in the following Monthly and then Sells down

ie. 5524  or as high as 5980.

However, only if the US markets follow, and they're being pumped full of money.

The big difference between the two are - the S&P 500 is heavily weighted by 4 companies that are still doing well during this Crisis, whilst the Australian Market, heavily dominated by Financials and Minerals are doing poorly.

I don't see any V shape recovery.

I see more weakness into 2021.

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET SPI FUTURES 5TH APRIL 2020

SPI PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

LONG TERM - THE AUSTRALIAN MARKET IS GOING INTO NEW LOWS INTO 2021

SHORT-TERM, I STILL THINK IT WILL TRY AND MOVE UPWARDS TO APPROX 

50% OF THE RANGE (WEEKLY HIGHS)

NEXT WEEK TREND GUIDE IS 5274

RANDOM RESISTANCE 5524

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET SPI FUTURES 28TH MARCH2020

SPI PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

Resistance below the 2020 lows and now breaking the 100% range at 5021.

I would read the US REPORT (S&P 500), to get a better idea, that even though it's below 5021, I'm expecting a counter-trend rally in April of 50% of the range from the Highs in January Highs and the new lows that will be set soon. 

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

However, LONG TERMS BUYS REMAIN IN 1st QUARTER LOWS in 2021, as I'm expecting more weakness from JUNE.

THERE WAS A LARGE COUNTER-TREND RALLY IN THE S&P 500, AND THE AUSTRALIAN MARKET TRIED ITS BEST TO FOLLOW BUT DIDN'T HAVE THE SAME LEGS.

APRIL BEGINS NEXT WEEK, BUT I'M STRUGGLING TO SEE A 50% RETRACEMENT AFTER LAST WEEK'S PRICE ACTION

  WE CAN SEE THE BREAK AND EXTEND PATTERNS DOWN TOWARDS 4061 & 3855.

THERE'S STILL NO REASON TO BE BUYING INTO THE MARKET UNTIL 2021.

21st March 2020 Australian Stock Market SPI Futures

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET SPI FUTURES 

PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

 Resistance next week around these 2 levels 5868 & the March lows @ 5980

They are predicting it's going to get worse over the next 4 weeks with a Peak around MAY June, therefore there is expected weakness into 2021 for long terms buys.

In the Short-term I would think a bit of A....

Resistance below the 2020 lows and now breaking the 100% range at 5021.

I would read the US REPORT (S&P 500), to get a better idea, that even though it's below 5021, I'm expecting a counter-trend rally in April of 50% of the range from the Highs in January Highs and the new lows that will be set soon. 

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

However, LONG TERMS BUYS REMAIN IN 1st QUARTER LOWS in 2021, as I'm expecting more weakness from JUNE.

Australian Stock Market 14th March 2020 - SPI Futures

ASX Primary & Weekly Cycles

When we look at previous Bear Market sell offs, it can often go looking for the 100% of the range, which is 5012.

Once it reaches that point, it doesn't go much lower, in the current year.

5012 is Support for 2020, but it's not a BUY & HOLD level, that will come in 2021 (previous Report)

Australian Stock Market down into 5012 and support back into the 2020 lows @ 5883

Has all the bad news been factored in the market in the Short-term?

There's 3 potential price actions that may happen.

A. - remains below the 2020 lows & in between 5021

with resistance next week around these 2 levels 5868 & the March lows @ 5980

B. More short covering from 5525 up to 6120 - resistance

C: A lot of Short covering into the 2020 50% level over the next few week @ 6355 - a lot of resistance for more weakness into 2021

They are predicting it's going to get worse over the next 4 weeks with a Peak around MAY June, therefore there is expected weakness into 2021 for long terms buys.

In the Short-term I would think a bit of A, but I won't be surprise is there is B!

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 10th March 2020

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

There should be support and short-covering this week.

It will be hard to see it going higher than the MARCH 50% level and February lows @ 6564  - Retest of the Break down - RESISTANCE.

At this stage there is no reason to be buying into the Market for BUY & HOLDS, otherthan short-term volatility on the upside into Resistance levels

Next Long Term buy is the 2021 Lows (PREVIOUS REPORT)

We saw a early support last week, but sadly it didn't reach the MARCH 50% level, unlike the S&P 500, which provided the perfect set-up for more downside

When we look at previous Bear Market sell offs, it can often go looking for the 100% of the range, which is 5012.

Once it reaches that point, it doesn't go much lower, in the current year.

Therefore, I would expect some support and around this level, but it might not get higher than 5749 for a number of weeks.

5012 is Support for 2020, but it's not a BUY & HOLD level, that will come in 2021