Australian Stock Market - SPI FUTURES 29th June 2020

Australian Stock Market - Primary & Weekly Cycles

Whilst above the Yearly lows at 5683 the bias is to continue higher towards the 2020 50% level at 6375

Weekly cycles continue to be bullish, but I still would like to see the June 50% level tested to validate whether it will continue towards the 2020 50% level

Still trading above the 2020 lows, but I'm surprised it hasn't move as high as the 2020 50% level @ 6375

Around the July 50% level, it will also match the monthly lows, providing a robust support zone for that move upwards 6375 to 6420

However, read the S&P 500 report, because what looks like a good set-up for a move higher can lead to a break of support and down into the July lows and then the August lows.

Therefore below the Weekly lows at 5613 is open to Risk in July.

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 13th June 2020 Report

Australian Stock Market (Primary & Weekly Cycle)

I would like to see the Weekly highs stall the trend from going higher and retest the JUNE 50% level.  (SET-UP B and into  SET-UP C)

Once that happens we can validate whether the Australian Market will go higher and how high. (previous Report)

Whilst above the Yearly lows at 5683 the bias is to continue higher towards the 2020 50% level at 6375

Weekly cycles continue to be bullish, but I still would like to see the June 50% level tested to validate whether it will continue towards the 2020 50% level.

There's so much negative news in the economy, I'm even scratching my head of how the market can go higher?

But it can!

Things will change, once it's below the Monthly 50% levels and with a distinct possibility any selling would move back to the Monthly Blue Channel lows.

The Australian Stock Market 30th MAY 2020

Australian Stock Market - Primary & Weekly Cycles

14th MARCH 2020

There's 3 potential price actions that may happen.

A. - remains below the 2020 lows & in between 5021

with resistance next week around these 2 levels 5868 & the March lows @ 5980

B. More short covering from 5525 up to 6120 - resistance

C: A lot of Short covering into the 2020 50% level over the next few week @ 6355 - a lot of resistance for more weakness into 2021

With a Peak around MAY June, therefore there is expected weakness into 2021 for long terms buys.

Currently we are in SET-UP A -  retesting the MARCH lows at 5980

Fundamentally the economy is cactus, but the BEAR MARKET Pattern in the Australian Market has failed to materialise, and the Aussie Market has followed the S&P 500 higher (read S&P 500)

Whilst inside the 2020 lows, the trend bias is to move towards the 2020 50% level at 6375

 (SET-UP C)

However, I would like to see the Weekly highs at 6017 stall the trend from going higher and retest the JUNE 50% level.  (SET-UP B and into  SET-UP C)

Once that happens we can validate whether the Australian Market will go higher and how high.

In conclusion - 

It looks like it's going to go higher into June, but I've always have had the view that the Market is going to continue to go lower into 2021 and that it starts to unwind from the 3rd Quarter. 

However, there is no SET-UP or resistance levels to validate that view at this stage.

The Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures 3rd MAY 2020

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

Extremely bearish on the Australian Market. 

It's consolidating below the 2020 lows, has retested the Monthly 50% levels in April and I have the expectation that it will try and move down towards the Monthly lows (B)

We now have the Weekly channels converging into each other, and it now looks like it wants to POP, but not on the upside.

Those monthly lows (B) is where to you to be buying again, but it's still and BUY and GET OUT, because of the view it's going lower into 2021.

The only thing propping up the Markets is the US FED, pumping the tyres of the US markets, but the state of the economy will soon catch up and those  US Markets will soon move to the DOWNSIDE also.

Australia Stock Market 19th April 2020 - SPI Futures

Primary & Weekly Cycles

The pattern in the Australian Stock market is the classic BEAR MARKET pattern - 

Moves up towards the previous breakout or 50% level in the following Monthly and then Sells down

ie. 5524  or as high as 5980.

However, only if the US markets follow, and they're being pumped full of money.

The big difference between the two are - the S&P 500 is heavily weighted by 4 companies that are still doing well during this Crisis, whilst the Australian Market, heavily dominated by Financials and Minerals are doing poorly.

I don't see any V shape recovery.

I see more weakness into 2021.

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET SPI FUTURES 5TH APRIL 2020

SPI PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

LONG TERM - THE AUSTRALIAN MARKET IS GOING INTO NEW LOWS INTO 2021

SHORT-TERM, I STILL THINK IT WILL TRY AND MOVE UPWARDS TO APPROX 

50% OF THE RANGE (WEEKLY HIGHS)

NEXT WEEK TREND GUIDE IS 5274

RANDOM RESISTANCE 5524

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET SPI FUTURES 28TH MARCH2020

SPI PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

Resistance below the 2020 lows and now breaking the 100% range at 5021.

I would read the US REPORT (S&P 500), to get a better idea, that even though it's below 5021, I'm expecting a counter-trend rally in April of 50% of the range from the Highs in January Highs and the new lows that will be set soon. 

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

However, LONG TERMS BUYS REMAIN IN 1st QUARTER LOWS in 2021, as I'm expecting more weakness from JUNE.

THERE WAS A LARGE COUNTER-TREND RALLY IN THE S&P 500, AND THE AUSTRALIAN MARKET TRIED ITS BEST TO FOLLOW BUT DIDN'T HAVE THE SAME LEGS.

APRIL BEGINS NEXT WEEK, BUT I'M STRUGGLING TO SEE A 50% RETRACEMENT AFTER LAST WEEK'S PRICE ACTION

  WE CAN SEE THE BREAK AND EXTEND PATTERNS DOWN TOWARDS 4061 & 3855.

THERE'S STILL NO REASON TO BE BUYING INTO THE MARKET UNTIL 2021.