AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET - SPI FUTRES 1ST NOVEMBER 2020

 

SPI PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

AUSSIE MARKET REMAINS IN A BEAR TREND, AND IT DOESN'T TAKE TOO MUCH FOR THE NOVEMBER LOWS TO BREAK AND SEE THE MARKET DROP MUCH LOWER INTO 2021

THE US ELECTION WILL HAVE A MASSIVE BEARING ON THE STOCK MARKET TRENDS.

A TRUMP WIN WILL BE POSITIVE, A BIDEN WIN I'M SURE WILL BE NEGATIVE, - RAISING TAXES AND SHUTTING THE ECONOMY.

SURE THE MARKET CAN RISE, BUT I WOULD RATHER VERIFY THAT USING THE 2021 50% LEVEL AS THE TREND GUIDE IN JANUARY

Australian Stock Market Report 3rd October 2020

 

Primary & Weekly Cycles

If we subscribe to the Primary Cycles Bear Market Patterns, then we are looking for October lows to fail and then for the trend continue down towards new lows in 2021.

With Trump going into Hospital with Covid-19 after Future Markets closed, it will be interesting on next week's open, and enough to spook the markets.

The 3rd Quarter has always been the Secondary Cycle that sees the next wave downwards.

Whilst the US markets and the Australian Market don't align, they will if US markets continue lower (read US Report)

We can see in the Forward Primary Cycle in 2021, if price doesn't sell off, but continues to remain supported in 2020 above the Yearly lows (5703), then next year's 50% level will define whether the Aussie market goes higher or not.

If looking to be a BUYER in the Aussie Market, I would sit it out until next year

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET REPORT 4TH SEPTEMBER 2020

 

Australian Stock Market Report 

It's best to read the US Report to give you an idea of what may play out.

S&P 500 50% level should coincide with the Australian Stock Market September lows and also the 3rd Quarter 50% level at 5614

From there, does it bounce?

Or does the Australian Stock Market follow the BEAR MARKET Trend and break the lows and  price continues to trend down until 2021

Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures 1st August 2020

Australian Stock Market

The Aussie Market looks terrible compared to the S&P 500, but it still should continue higher to at least the Yearly 50% level, which should coincide with the S&P 500 forming a double top (Read US Report) 

Once that happens, we could begin to see the start of another move downward.

Some early weakness next week but the August lows and Yearly Lows most likely support the market.

Australian Stock Market - SPI FUTURES 29th June 2020

Australian Stock Market - Primary & Weekly Cycles

Whilst above the Yearly lows at 5683 the bias is to continue higher towards the 2020 50% level at 6375

Weekly cycles continue to be bullish, but I still would like to see the June 50% level tested to validate whether it will continue towards the 2020 50% level

Still trading above the 2020 lows, but I'm surprised it hasn't move as high as the 2020 50% level @ 6375

Around the July 50% level, it will also match the monthly lows, providing a robust support zone for that move upwards 6375 to 6420

However, read the S&P 500 report, because what looks like a good set-up for a move higher can lead to a break of support and down into the July lows and then the August lows.

Therefore below the Weekly lows at 5613 is open to Risk in July.

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 13th June 2020 Report

Australian Stock Market (Primary & Weekly Cycle)

I would like to see the Weekly highs stall the trend from going higher and retest the JUNE 50% level.  (SET-UP B and into  SET-UP C)

Once that happens we can validate whether the Australian Market will go higher and how high. (previous Report)

Whilst above the Yearly lows at 5683 the bias is to continue higher towards the 2020 50% level at 6375

Weekly cycles continue to be bullish, but I still would like to see the June 50% level tested to validate whether it will continue towards the 2020 50% level.

There's so much negative news in the economy, I'm even scratching my head of how the market can go higher?

But it can!

Things will change, once it's below the Monthly 50% levels and with a distinct possibility any selling would move back to the Monthly Blue Channel lows.

The Australian Stock Market 30th MAY 2020

Australian Stock Market - Primary & Weekly Cycles

14th MARCH 2020

There's 3 potential price actions that may happen.

A. - remains below the 2020 lows & in between 5021

with resistance next week around these 2 levels 5868 & the March lows @ 5980

B. More short covering from 5525 up to 6120 - resistance

C: A lot of Short covering into the 2020 50% level over the next few week @ 6355 - a lot of resistance for more weakness into 2021

With a Peak around MAY June, therefore there is expected weakness into 2021 for long terms buys.

Currently we are in SET-UP A -  retesting the MARCH lows at 5980

Fundamentally the economy is cactus, but the BEAR MARKET Pattern in the Australian Market has failed to materialise, and the Aussie Market has followed the S&P 500 higher (read S&P 500)

Whilst inside the 2020 lows, the trend bias is to move towards the 2020 50% level at 6375

 (SET-UP C)

However, I would like to see the Weekly highs at 6017 stall the trend from going higher and retest the JUNE 50% level.  (SET-UP B and into  SET-UP C)

Once that happens we can validate whether the Australian Market will go higher and how high.

In conclusion - 

It looks like it's going to go higher into June, but I've always have had the view that the Market is going to continue to go lower into 2021 and that it starts to unwind from the 3rd Quarter. 

However, there is no SET-UP or resistance levels to validate that view at this stage.