Australian( SPI)Index Weekly 26th July 08

"I'm not expecting a major counter-trend move UP like what occurred in March this Year, my view is support forming around 4836 and remaining range bound below 5100 until the end of July, and if there is going to be a 'pop' upwards into the monthly 50% level, then there is more of a chance that higher prices would occur from August.

After a rotation into the Monthly 50% level, my view remains that the Aussie market is heading down into the Yearly lows @ 4538."

Weekly Report 12th July 2008

SPI Weekly Report

Market reversal off July's lows and a move back UP into 5100.

The reason I'm not expecting a major reversal this time compared to March is because of the breakout of June's lows. (5100)

This pattern will probably remain range bound for the rest of July and then the next move begins from August....

SPI Daily...

Last Week global markets reversed down from their highs, but this reversal pattern was just a rotation back down into the Weekly 50% level.

There is a big difference between a reversal down this week and previous weeks, it's occurring above the weekly 50% levels and not below.

Therefore next Week can continue higher:- lower Weekly open and rising higher after it's verified the 3-day cycle support on Friday.

"remaining range bound below 5100 until the end of July, and if there is going to be a 'pop' upwards into the monthly 50% level, then there is more of a chance that higher prices would occur from August."

So what's the POP?

The POP is the start of August defined by it's own level (balance point red dotted line).

If the market is going to rise higher and back towards the Monthly 50% level, then it's going to align with the start of August (SET=UP A)

If SET-UP A plays out then I'm looking for a move back down into the Yearly lows, but it might take a few weeks to unwind into a new down-trend.

SET-UP B:- is simply the down-trend continuing from August, which normally occurs with the market opening below the August balance point and rejects down.

SPI 5-day pattern

Day traders simply trade on the side of the 5-day level, using the 5-day filters along with the Spiral point trading set-ups intra-day.

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Australian( SPI) Index Weekly 19th July 08

"Once the July lows (4836) are reached next week, my expectation is price is going to swing back towards the 3-week highs.

A rotation UP towards the Monthly 50% level, but it could take a number of weeks to move back towards the Monthly 50% level in August."

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Weekly and Daily charts

The Australian Index found support around July's lows @ 4836 , but the reversal upwards last week wasn't as robust as US markets, namely because BHP was dragging the market down.

I mentioned a number of weeks ago that BHP and other resources stocks would be the main culprits in sending the Index lower, whilst telling my readers that once 4836 hits that i'll be moving back into financials for the 3rd time this year.

And i'll be exiting banking stocks around their Weekly highs and moving into cash again probably early next week.

I'm looking for the Aussie index to remain range bound between last week's lows and 5100, and could move slightly higher in August and back into the 50% level.

After any completion into the 50% level, my view remains for prices to move back down into lower lows in coming months.

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Australian( SPI) Index Weekly 12th July 2008

"Whenever there is a breakout of the Weekly timeframe and Friday closes below (5100), price normally continues down towards the next weekly lows after a 2 day consolidation.

Breakout of June's lows @ 5100, can send the market down into 4836 before any reversal pattern back towards July's 50% level occurs.

Therefore the first two days of trading next week should give traders a fair idea on how the market is going to play out, because if the trend is going to continue down, it will normally occur after a 2-day 'stalling' pattern."

Previously Weekly Report

SPI Weekly chart

SPI has continued down from 5100 and the breakout towards 4836.

Once the July lows are reached next week, my expectation is price is going to swing back towards the 3-week highs, but that needs to be confirmed with similar price action in the US markets.

http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

SPI Daily

Last Week the SPI remained in a tight 5-day pattern around the Weekly lows 4929, and next Week's lows @ 4844 match my overall view of the down move into 4836 in July.

Note: A rotation UP towards the Monthly 50% level, but it could take a number of weeks to move back towards the Monthly 50% level in August.

What that basically means is that, I'm not expecting a major counter-trend move UP like what occurred in March this Year, my view is support forming around 4836 and remaining range bound below 5100 until the end of July, and if there is going to be a 'pop' upwards into the monthly 50% level, then there is more of a chance that higher prices would occur from August.

After a rotation into the Monthly 50% level, my view remains that the Aussie market is heading down into the Yearly lows @ 4538-82, which will be helped by Resource stocks namely BHP.

Any UP move in the next few weeks is only viewed as short-term, with the expectation of lower prices in 2008.

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Australian( SPI) Index Weekly 5th July 2008

“Note:- Around the 100% of the Weekly lows in the 24 hour market has often provide major support and reversal patterns in the market for the current weekly timeframe.

That area of interest is around 4953”…… Thursday’s Report

SPI Daily

SPI reversed down from the Weekly 50% level and completed the move into July's lows, hitting a low on Friday in sycom @ 4951, and we can see Friday moving higher from 5013.

Around July's low after completing a 2 month wave pattern downwards, I'm look for a counter-trend move back towards the July 50% level.

A few of things need to be verified for the UP move to occur :- bounce off Monthly lows, breakout of the 5-day highs (usually lead by US markets), and then price needs to be trading above the Weekly 50% level.

So far the first pattern is playing out, and now we need to see two more.....

But is the SPI going to move higher, or actually continue down???

Whenever there is a breakout of the Weekly timeframe and Friday closes below, price normally continues down towards the next weekly lows (4929) after a 2 day consolidation.

We can see this pattern taking place, as was the case two weeks ago.....

SPI Weekly

In the Weekly chart the same pattern, breakout of June's lows @ 5100, can send the market down into 4836 before any reversal pattern back towards July's 50% level occurs.

Therefore the first two days of trading next week should give traders a fair idea on how the market is going to play out, because if the trend is going to continue down, it will normally occur after a 2-day 'stalling pattern.

There are two set-ups in Play in July:-

Set-up A:- bounce off July's lows @ 5013 and continue up into the 50% level.

or

Set-up B:- continuation downwards, which is still a possibility, because of the breakout patterns just discussed.

SPI 5-day

All intra-day 5-day pattern trading, set-ups, and filters discussed in the 'Trader Premium'

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Australian( SPI) Index Weekly 28th June 2008

CNBC is now alerting that US markets are nearly in a 'BEAR' Market, but in fact that BEAR market began at the start of the January 2008, as prices pushed down from the Yearly 50% levels.

As previously mentioned many times, the counter-trend UP into MAY from March lows would be the time to go cash, as the expectation that all global markets would be moving down toward the lows once again, and continue lower July-Sept as price push down towards their Yearly lows for 2008 ......

Aussie index XJO Cash market

Yearly lows are 4538 and the expectation is that the market will move that low, and probably in the next Quarter.

Ever since the 'crash' pattern began in January the market was heading down into 4538, but only after the 2-month counter-trend move from March Low back into the May's highs, had completed, and the expectation of further weakness down.

SPI Weekly Futures

Ideally I want to be moving back into Financials, but I'm not expecting any counter-trend move greater than the higher timeframe 50% levels.

That reversal upwards can occur from July's lows, but then the expectation is further weakness down into the Yearly lows.

Note:- As previously mentioned many times before, even though the 2008 lows might support the market this year, I'm expectating lower prices in 2009, where once those lower levels are reached we should bottom out this bear market, but I'll come back to that next year.

Dilernia Principle:- two timeframe waves pattern based on the Yearly timeframe

SPI Daily

Expectation SPI is continuing down, which could occur from the Weekly 50% level, or prices could push upwards into July's 50% level before continuing down.

But as a Day-trader on Index futures, I'm not concerned about which price action takes place....

SPI 5-day pattern and 44 point ranges.

Because I'm trading short-term 5-day patterns using the 5-day filter and spiral-point trading..

But waiting for the right price action to re-enter stocks looking for the next Counter-trend move back up into the monthly 50% level and where I'll go cash once again, before the next downward move into 4538......

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SPI Australian Index Weekly 21st June 2008

SPI Weekly

It's not often the Index markets drop lower the week of expiry of contracts, more often than not prices rise up into expiry and then continue lower if the overall pattern favours that move. The pattern I was looking was a move up into July's 50% level and then continue lower next month or after contract expiry.

But as the saying goes...."same,same but different".... the view of lower prices was going to occur once prices topped out in MAY, but whether it goes lower in June or July it's not all that important, because i'm not ready to move into stocks just yet looking for the next monthly counter-trend move upwards.

That will occur on the next double monthly low pattern, which more than likely looks to be occurring in July where once again i'll be moving back into Financial stocks.

As pointed out in the Stock Report:- I've already noted where my BUY levels are on all 4 banks.

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/

SPI Daily

Therefore the view is for prices to move down into June's lows @ 5100, and then continue lower into July's low.

SPI daily and 5-day pattern

Last week's view of higher prices into the Friday was looking good once price crossed over the 5-day filter @ 5352 kicking higher on Wednesday, but once price crossed back under 5379 on Friday then the market was heading down into the 5-day lows.

Next week:- Monday is going to be simply defined by 5230.......

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SPI Australian Index Weekly 14th June

SPI Weekly

"I expect the SPI to remain flat a probably below the June 50% level, but then look for higher prices as contract expiry follows the next week" ...Previous Weekly report

Trading below the 3-week lows and June's 50% level the expectation was to push downward this week, and now in the week of expiry the expectation is price is going to rise upwards into Friday, but then mostly likely continue lower in the next Quarter.

If the SPI follows the June month, then it will continue down into 5100, and then probably continue lower towards 4862, but at this stage I would lean more to the SPI consolidating for a couple more weeks, with the best set-up selling down in July.

July's 50% level and the start of the next Quarter is going to define whether the 3rd stage of the bear trend continues. The first stage was the January breakout down into March lows. the 2nd stage was the counter-trend move up into MAY, and now the 3rd stage is about the unfold in July.


SPI Daily

Next week's price action is going to be determined by the Weekly 50% level and the 3-day cycle.

At this stage the view is to continue lower, but if US markets move upwards next week then the SPI will be continuing upwards into Friday (random length)

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/2008/06/dow-s-weekly-report-14th-june-2008.html


SPI 5-day pattern


"Early next Week: trading below 5485 and look for 44 point rotations and resistance"
Previous Weekly Report

Last week was all about the 5-day lows @ 5485.

Once below that the expectation was price was continuing lower in the 5-day pattern down into 5345, along with some ideal 44 point money pattern rotations throughout the day and counter-trend move upwards on Wednesday and Friday.

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