Aussie Index (SPI) 31 Oct 2009 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Last week's view was based on the S&P 500 dropping with a Monday high set-up and a Tuesday trending down day, as part of SET-UP A

At the start of October if you recall, my expectation was a short term pullback into the 3-week lows for support and for a move upwards in October to complete the 3-month cycle tops as part of the breakout pattern from July and into October.

This played out precisely.

Once the 3-monthly cycle was completed (October highs), these 3-week lows are first target pullback zones, with SET-UP A favouring a move back down into the monthly 50% levels.

There might not be a Set-up A in the S&P 500, but there was in the Australian markets.

Resistance as shown...

There might be lower swing points for a short-term counter-trend moves from lower prices next week around the October 50% levels back into resistance levels.

But how it reacts to the resistance levels is important, because a failure can follow the market dynamics down into November lows.

Above resistance, (week close) and the 4th Quarter will probably remain range bound and consolidate until the end of the Year.

Aussie Index (SPI) 23 Oct 2009 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

October highs expected resistance after completing the 3-month cycle breakout from July.

There is an expected pullback in the markets, and that pullback is dependant on the S&P 500.

To understand what might happen next week, it's best to read the US Weekly report

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

A break of the Weekly 50% levels and first target will be the 3-week lows.

Aussie Index (SPI) 17 Oct 2009 Weekly

SPI Monthly

SPI and US markets complete the 3-month cycle breakout patterns from July into October.

Normally when these cycles complete price will move into a rotation pattern looking for the monthly 50% levels.

Sure the market can go higher, but at this stage I'm treating the Global Equity markets as range bound around upper resistance levels until November

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Next Week is simply a view of price being range bound between the Weekly 50% levels, and maybe travel as high as the Weekly highs.

Any moves during the week will be based on using the support or resistance levels within the 5-day pattern.

Bearish patterns around the October highs, will need to be verified with a Friday close below the Weekly 50& levels.

At this stage next week starts around support levels in the 5-day pattern

Aussie Index (SPI) 10 Oct 2009 Weekly

SPI monthly

The move upwards this week aligned with the S&P 500 rising up from the 3-week lows, and any higher move in the 4th Quarter will be based on November's 50% level.

And 3-month cycle July breakout pattern should complete the October highs next week.


Once the October highs are reached this will complete the 3-month breakout pattern and I won't have another long term view until November because certain patterns can occur once the cycle ends.

October highs are seen as resistance, and it is obvious that any UP trend needs to remain above the Monthly 50% levels, so a pullback into the November 50% level is highly likely over the next few weeks.

The same applies with the Financial Stocks. The financial stocks have been driving most of this trend upwards, and they will complete the breakout and extend pattern around October highs. Once that happens price normally goes looking for 3-month 50% levels.

4th Quarter target as shown above, but that won't be reached if the S&P 500 is trading below the November 50% level. (read US report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 3rd Oct 2009 Weekly

SPI monthly

SPI continues to consolidate over the past couple of weeks around the September high levels.

There is an expectation that price will continue towards the October
highs based on the breakout and extend pattern from July:- break
in the 3-month cycles will normally continue to move towards the highs in the
next 3-month cycle:- October/November.

Along the way I like to have preferred patterns to trade the larger cycles,
my first preferred pattern was the Yearly 50% level @ 4455 to resist
price and then trade longs from the monthly 50% level for the next
move upwards.

However that didn’t occur, and once above 4455 at the end of August
the trend was going higher, helped by the S&P moving into it’s own
Yearly 50% levels which was lagging at the time.

Capturing the rest of the trend is based on the smaller thrust patterns
using the weekly 50% levels and Weekly open strategies, helped by
set-ups within the S&P 500

And the same applies in the 4th quarter.

Expectation of a higher move to complete the break and extend pattern
from July, but as pointed out in the Premium Report, my preferred pattern is
to see a ‘dip’ early in October and retest the 3-week lows.

A dip doesn't have to be large, I would just like to see a retest of the
3-week lows which 4442 and around the Yearly 50% level for the next move upwards.

However, it will be based on the price action in the S&P 500 over the next 3 -days.

Read US market report.

Aussie Index (SPI) 26th Sept Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

With the SPI range trading within the September levels and remaining above 4656, and with only a few days to go until October begins, I have to favour a continuation of the Trend upwards in the early part of October.

Breakout pattern in the Quarterly timeframe (3-month cycle) in July is continuing into higher highs into the next Quarter:- break and extend pattern.

At this stage with the market above the Yearly 50% levels and 3-Year 50% levels, and now consolidating above the 3rd Quarter highs, the trend keeps on keeping on.

At this stage I'm not going to forecast a 4th Quarter 'top', but simply treat each month on it's own merit until and lesser timeframe gives me clues on any short-term reversal patterns that could lead to longer-term reversal patterns towards trailing 50% levels in the monthly timeframes.

Aussie Index (SPI) 19th Sept Weekly

SPI Weekly

Last Week's view was a 2-day pullback and a UP move from Wednesday into the September highs.

There was a continuation into higher highs on Thursday based on US markets moving higher on Wednesday and the SPI has closed above 4656....

At this stage I would expect a slightly higher move in October to fullfil the breakout and extend pattern from the 3rd Quarter (July) and continuation higher into October.

Once we move into the 4th Quarter starting in October, the trend will depend greatly on the price action in the US, (Read the US report)

And like all good breakouts I would like price to revisit the break sometime in the future, which can often occur in the next 3 month period, especially if the S&P struggles to move higher than 1073.

That retest of the breakout is around 4159.