SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 28th April 2012

Monthly & Weekly cycles

The SPI is trading around the monthly highs, which is currently acting as resistance.... and may continue to do so until it pulls back into trailing Support levels.


As it's been described in my latest book regarding Quarterly cycles, each UP move during the past 3 previous Quarterly cycles have aligned with the single monthly lows (RED)...

If that's going to repeat during this Quarterly cycle, then the trailing single monthly lows (RED) in the future months "a window into the Future' are levels that should be of interest for traders looking to 'TIME' longs once again.

Eventually a Robust UP trend will breakout of the monthly highs and continue to Extend up towards new highs in the following quarterly cycles, but at this stage I feel market will continue to consolidate in a large sideways band that has a slight upward bias.
Next Week:- 4384 and the Weekly level will determine the short-term 5-day trend with in the weekly cycles
Note:- A break of monthly support will result in a minor break and extend pattern towards the Quarterly 50% level (Yellow)

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 21st April 2012

SPI Weekly cycles

The SPI remains stable with an UP bias....

and if it follows the monthly cycles in April...

then the trend should continue to push up towards next week's highs, and also the April highs.

Trend guide the Weekly level @ 4375.

Note: 4389 is the 3-year 50% level that has been acting as resistance during 2012.

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 14th April 2012

The Weekly 50% level @ 4300 will define whether there is a short-term upward move

and 4300 will also define whether the trend moves down into 4256, and as low as the Weekly lows 4239  (Previous Weekly Report)

SPI Weekly Cycles

Weekly lows formed Support @ 4239 this week...

and next week's 50% level @ 4309 will define whether market continues to consolidate around the April 50% level...

or there's a short-term rise up towards 4358

After reading the US Index report, there is potential weakness next week until the S&P moves down into 1347.

Note:- Whilst the SPI is trading above 4257 the trend remains stable with an UPward bias.

However, I still believe that the market will visit the 2nd Quarterly 50% level @ 4146  during the current 3-month cycle

SPI Futures Australian Stock market 7th April 2012

Trend bias is to continue up towards the April highs....

However, my view is that the Australian Market will revisit the 2nd Quarterly 50% level over the next 3-months.

The move down will be helped by weakness in US markets..... (Previous Weekly Report)

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

The SPI didn't reach the precise April highs, as the downward trend gathered pace as US markets started to reverse down towards their own Monthly 50% levels.

The overall reversal target is the 2nd Quarterly 50% level 4196.

However, the April 50% level @ 4256 could form a random support zone for a number of Weeks ( further consolidation)

Next Week:-  The Weekly 50% level @ 4300 will define whether there is a short-term upward move 

and 4300 will also define whether the trend moves down into 4256, and as low as the Weekly lows 4239

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 31st March 2012

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

Trend bias is to continue up towards the April highs....

However, my view is that the Australian Market will revisit the 2nd Quarterly 50% level over the next 3-months....

the 2nd Quarterly 50% level is seen as a robust Support zone during 2012

The move down will be helped by weakness in US markets.....

SPI Futures Australian Stock March 24th March 2012

Any further gains over the next 2-weeks will be towards the MARCH highs @ 4385

Note:- if the market is trading below 4300  the likely scenario is a close of gap...

Weekly 50% level Support @ 4244 (Previous weekly Report)

 

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

As the S&P 500 came down to retest Support @ 1482, (read US Index Report) the SPI followed moving down to it's own support levels @ 4244.

And if the S&P 500 follows the April high pattern, then it's going to drag the SPI upwards:- 4385

However, the 1st Quarterly 50% level continues to form resistance around @ 4292....

and even though the SPI could move towards the Weekly highs & 4385, don't discount the SPI revisiting the 2nd Quarterly 50% level during the next Quarter.

as this level @ 4130 would provide a more robust Support  'Thrust ' pattern upwards over the next 3-6 months.

In conclusion:- the SPI will be dictated in the short-term by how the S&P 500 responds to it's Weekly level @ 1395 (READ US Index report)

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 17th March 2012 Weekly report

My view is that the trend will continue to move upwards over the coming weeks, and that will be decided by next week's 50% level @ 4229.

A continuation upwards will be helped by potential UPward patterns in US markets (Read S&P 500 Weekly report)  Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

The SPI is likely to follow the Weekly cycles and move towards next Week's highs, helped by the Weekly close above the Quarterly 50% level @ 4292.

Any further gains over the next 2-weeks will be towards the MARCH highs @ 4385

Note:- if the market is trading below 4300 (4292) the likely scenario is a close of gap (Tuesday's highs)

Weekly 50% level Support