SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 9th February 2015

SPI Primary & Weekly cycles

As mentioned in the previous report, the Australian Market is back into a Bull trend. & has now completed the move into the 2015 highs.

Unlike my view last year to dump stocks around the 2014 highs, this time it's different

The Trust pattern upwards from the 2015 50% level and now a close above 5691 is extremely bullish to continue higher

Therefore 5691 is seen as support, as the trend can continue to move higher until the 2nd Quarter (April)

6005 is the current target.

AUSTRALIAN Stock Market SPI Futures 28 January 2015

SPI Primary Cycles 2015

If you've been following my reports for a while now, you'd know that I've been bearish on the Australian Market since reaching the 2014 highs. 

Normally with the alignment of the 2015 50% level, this would put pressure on the Primary cycles to move lower, as was the case with the first few weeks in January.

However, if you've read my US reports (S&P 500), you know I've been bullish, and the price action in the US has helped the Australian Market remain stable, and based on this week's price again once again move into a BULL trend. (Above 2015 50%)

However, the important pattern in the Australian market is the price action of the Precious Metals (GOLD & Silver). I was Bullish on Silver but not so much on Gold.

Both those markets now have the potential to rise upwards after being depressed for the past 2 years, which gives reason to underpin the Australian Market. (READ GOLD Report).

If GOLD & Silver is going to Rise, then keep an eye on the AUD/USD (Read Forex Report)

Australian Stock Market SPI futures 1st January 2015

SPI Primary & Weekly cycles

The 2014 50% level has supported the Australian Stock Market, and as mentioned in the previous report, the US markets continue to look bullish, which was enough to drag the Aussie market upwards and close out the 2014 Primary cycle right at a critical level.

As mentioned in previous reports, the 2015 50% level @ 5377 is going to define the trend for the next 2 years, especially if it's trading below it. 

If you look at precious metals (read Gold Report) my view is that there is weakness in those commodities which is enough to push our market down into the 2015 lows, however US markets continue to look bullish. 

As we can see the SPI is going to open above on the January 50% level @ 5355 which is going to define the short-term trend.

Read S&P report

http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com.au/

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 17th December 2014

SPI Primary & Monthly Cycles

 

As we can see the Primary and Secondary cycles are driving the market lower.

 

There is current support around 2014 50% level, but the secondary Sell zone in the 4th Quarter @ 5399 has stalled the market, followed by a December break, leading to a potential move down into the January lows.

 

As mentioned in the previous report; below the 2015 50% level and the Primary cycles suggest further weakness in 2015, and potentially a 2-wave cycle that trends lower into 2016. (5-6 Quarters)

 

When we compare the Aussie Market to the S&P 500, the Primary cycles look to be moving in the opposite directions.

 

http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com.au/

 

The S&P remains above the Primary highs in 2014, and potentially this could see a push upwards in the 1st Quarter in 2015.

 

If that's the case this will help the Australian market rise up into the 2015 50% level (Sell Zone).

 

At this stage in the Primary cycle I would be focusing on building cash reserves, whilst the market zig-zags lower of the next 5-6 Quarters. (long term investing).

 

Whatever happens in 2015 sets up the next long term BUY strategy in 2016 for the next 4-5years.

 

 

 

Australian Stock Market Report 1st December 2014

The most robust pattern of the trend continuing higher is for the Trailing support (currently 5139) rising upwards and forming a higher Support zone in December, providing the next thrust pattern.

Previous Report

SPI Primary and Monthly Cycles

As we can see the 2014 highs have continued to form resistance since bouncing off the October support zone.

As mentioned in the previous report, if the market is going to continue higher, the December support pattern now at 5267 comes into play.

That means Support @ 5267 (24 hour market @ 5243), followed by a 5-day high breakout &  a weekly close back above  5399.

If that follows then we should see the start of the year push upwards.

It doesn't bode well if the market is opening below the 2015 50% level at the start of the new year, as illustrated in my books.

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 29th October 2014

SPI Primary & Secondary Cycles

 

My view of 5399 stalling the market (Sell Zone) failed with last Friday's close above that level.

 

Two important patterns have occurred since the market reaching the 2014 Primary highs..

 

1:- Reversal down into the 2014 50% level and October lows (Support)

 

2:- Last week's close above 5399.

 

This suggests the overall Primary Trend remains bullish, along with 5399 now being a random support zone, and that the trend will likely continue up towards the 2015 highs.

 

The most robust pattern of the trend continuing higher is for the Trailing support (currently 5139) rising upwards and forming a higher Support zone in December, providing the next thrust pattern.

Australian Stock Market Weekly Report 19th October 2014

Trend bias is to complete the Primary cycles based on the Dilernia Principle of Break & Extend towards the 2014 highs. As we can see, the change in cycle saw support come into the market @ 5266, whilst within the Monthly cycles there is another break & extend pattern that suggests the minimum move will be towards the April highs. (March 50% level Support) My view remains, off load Margin long positions around those Yearly highs

Previous Weekly Report

Australia Stock Market :- Primary & Secondary Cycles

The Market has played out as expected, completing the Primary Cycles towards the 2014 highs, and hopefully traders took my recommendation to exit Long Margin Positions around those upper levels.

When we look at the shorter cycles within the Weekly timeframe, we can see a similar break and extend pattern on the downside, from the September lows & now into the October lows. This medium term support coincides with the 2014 Yearly 50% level.

At this stage in the game, the secondary cycles are likely to form resistance around 5399 (SELL ZONE), and with just over 2-months to go until the end of this Primary cycle, it’s way too early to have a long term view of the overall market trend.

My view is that the Market could consolidate within a narrow band of the Sell Zone, and short-term Support until the next Primary cycle begins in 2015.