Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures - 1st December 2018

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

We can also see the Quarterly cycles bearish (below Yellow), whereas earlier in the year they were support.

This now sets up the market being below the 2018 50% level and BEARISH PATTERNS that will go looking for 100% targets to the downside.

The Breakout of the October lows @ 6048 has put pressure on the market, but more importantly it's broken key levels in the Primary cycles and the bearish patterns have continued in November
(50% level resistance) 

Whilst there is strength in the S&P 500 (sort of), the SPI should follow a 2-wave downside pattern towards the 2019 lows and as far as the 100% level @ 5113

I just can't see a December rally in the Australian market looking at these pattern.
There could be some upside, but only to retest resustance.

SPI PRIMARY CYCLES

This is a very similar pattern as in 2015-2016

Weakness in the 2nd half of 2015 and support in 2016 a continuation upwards.

12th SEPTEMBER 2015 REPORT

Therefore any short-term support must treat the 2015 50% as resistance for the rest of the year. (previous Report)

The Australian Market has continued its dramatic sell-off extending its low towards the 100% level of the Yearly Timeframe @ 4750

As noted in the previous report, the BEAR-Market pattern often extends towards the 2016 lows, If we use historical patterns clearly described in my book :- Market Trading Market Time, then we should see some consolidation around the current 2015 lows, but then further weakness from the 4th Quarter down into the 1st Quarter lows some time in March 2016

If that plays out, then I'd look to move back into Long positions in the Aussie Market 6 months from now using the 2016 lows and SUPPORT & ENTRY

As you can see in the above post from September 2015, I had already had a vision how the market would act for the rest of the year and I was extremely confident that there would be further weakness in 2016 and that those lows would support the market.

I was confident because the MARKET had already extended itself 100% of the Primary range on the downside in 2015.

We haven't had that happen in 2018/2019, as yet.

So even though I've got an expectation that 2019 will push lower, I'm not as confident that 2019 will be as a robust support as 2016.

Australia Stock Market SPI Futures 4th November 2018

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

As you know I've been bullish on the markets with the expectation that the trend continuing to move up into new highs until 2020-21.  

This is based on the 2016 lows and then the trend continuing higher using the Primary cycles for an initial two years (2018 highs) and up to 4/5 years (2020-21). There's also a ton of good economic news coming out of the US atm.

However, the break of the October lows and now trading below the 2018 50% level, suggests the trend will continue down into the November lows (Weekly cycles bearish)

We can also see the Quarterly cycles bearish (below Yellow), whereas earlier in the year they were support.

This now sets up the market being below the 2019 50% level and BEARISH PATTERNS that will go looking for 100% targets to the downside.

If you read the S&P 500 Report, the Primary Cycles are still bullish, but the same bearish patterns are aligning.

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Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures 13th October Report

Australia Stock Market

PRIMARY and WEEKLY CYCLES

As per the previous report, the short-term pattern suggested a move towards the 3-month lows.

The move spiked down as far as the 2018 50% level.

This Primary cycle 50% level defines the state of the BULL TREND, and I continue to be bullish into 2020-21

However, it still remains in a SHORT_TERM breakout pattern, which is going to struggle to move higher than 6041 for the rest of this month if there's Buying & 'short-covering' early next week.

Australian Stock Market SPI futures 1st October 2018 Monthly Report

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

Weekly cycles showing weakness with the break of the September 50% level and breakout of the Weekly lows.

Normally there would be an expectation the trend will continue lower towards the Weekly lows, as part of a "break and extend pattern" and looking for the 2/3 month lows.

However, the Primary cycle is still looking for more gains and the target of 6437

Therefore, long term suggests more gains, Short term suggests weakness.

Trade either side of 6147

A retest of the 2/3 month lows, or as far as 5984 is an ideal level to get back into the Primary BULL trend

Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures 3rd September 2018

SPI Futures PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

Price looking to reach the 2018 highs @ 6437

Current Support @ 6220  (September 50%)

Once it reaches those highs, my expectation is that there will be a lot of resistance around that level.

However, I still think the trend is still going higher until 2020-2021.

Therefore it may stall, but any weakness is short-term (2-3 months) into trailing support levels.

Keep an eye on the S&P 500 (read report)

The Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures - 5th August 2018

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

TArget in 2018 - 6437

If it's going hit those highs, it will need to form support above the 2018 highs @ 6155

However, past  Primary cycles has seen resistance around the .618 of the range @ 6223

Support

Weekly Lows and July 50% level (don't trade longs below) @ 6008 (previous Report)

The Market continues higher and now forming support above 6155.

I'm still bullish for a move to 6437 but there's a bit of resistance around these  upper levels

Weekly lows have now moved higher into the August 50% level.

Even though I'm still bullish, don't trade long below @6145

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET 1st July 2018 Monthly Report

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

Still Bullish on the markets until 2020-21, even though there is so much negative news around, i/e Trump's tariffs etc

TArget in 2018 - 6437

If it's going hit those highs, it will need to form support above the 2018 highs @ 6155

However, past  Primary cycles has seen resistance around the .618 of the range @ 6223

Support

Weekly Lows and July 50% level (don't trade longs below) @ 6008