Australian Stock Market SPI futures 1st April 2019

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

Major resistance 6262, aligns with the Quarterly & Yearly highs.

6262  & 6383

It's like a parabolic rise since the December lows, that I would think it needs to revisit the March 50% level or even the Yearly 50% level sometime in May / June  before it goes higher into 2020-21 (Previous Report)

The Market hit resistance @6262 and retested the Weekly lows.

I think it's going to move higher once again in the short-term.

However, we want to see Markets come under pressure from MAY, so that it can retest the Yearly 50% level, which is our next BUY zone for another move higher into 2020

If weakness comes late in the 2nd Quarter, then the 3rd Quarter support levels move higher.

Expectation there will be higher highs by the end of this year and the start of 2020, so we want to be buying the dips.  

(Read Book - long term investing/accumulation)

AUSTRALIA STOCK MARKET SPI FUTURES 3 MARCH 2019

SPI PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

Major resistance 6262, aligns with the Quarterly & Yearly highs.

6262  & 6383

It's like a parabolic rise since the December lows, that I would think it needs to revisit the March 50% level or even the Yearly 50% level sometime in May / June  before it goes higher into 2020-21

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 4th February 2019

SPI Primay & Weekly Cycles

Read the previous report to get a better understanding of the current price action.

As mentioned last month, this now has the feel of the same pattern as 2011.

Weekly lows & 2019 50% level is Support

Random resistance around 6051 in this Quarter

Support in 2nd Quarter 2019 50% level for a move upwards into 2020

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET - 6TH JANUARY 2019 REPORT

SPI PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

The Australian Stock market has moved down 100% of the Range in 2018. We see these patterns often at the start of BEAR CYCLES.

Expectation that price will continue lower from the 2019 50% level, move down into the 2019 lows and then make higher highs going into 2020.

Even though there's bearish patterns in all INDEX MARKETS, there's too much good economic news coming out of the US for the BEAR trends not to go lower than the 2019 lows.

NOTE:- Instead of going down into the 2019 lows,  Price could go up towards the Quarterly/Secondary cycles (YELLOW) by the 2nd Quarter. IF that happens then there's less likely the market will complete the move down into the 2019 lows, but kick higher in the 3rd Quarter.

PRIMARY CYCLES

We can see the 100%  LOWS in 2011, 2015 and 2018.

The Question now is....

Will 2019 play out the same as 2016 (double Yearly low) or will it follow a similar pattern as 2012 and continue higher in the 3rd Quarter?

Note:- the only failure of the 100% low that didn't support the market was in 2008 during the GFC, but it completed the Bottom at the 2009 lows (double Yearly low)

Overall - BULLISH Long Term

Bearish Short-term

Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures - 1st December 2018

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

We can also see the Quarterly cycles bearish (below Yellow), whereas earlier in the year they were support.

This now sets up the market being below the 2018 50% level and BEARISH PATTERNS that will go looking for 100% targets to the downside.

The Breakout of the October lows @ 6048 has put pressure on the market, but more importantly it's broken key levels in the Primary cycles and the bearish patterns have continued in November
(50% level resistance) 

Whilst there is strength in the S&P 500 (sort of), the SPI should follow a 2-wave downside pattern towards the 2019 lows and as far as the 100% level @ 5113

I just can't see a December rally in the Australian market looking at these pattern.
There could be some upside, but only to retest resustance.

SPI PRIMARY CYCLES

This is a very similar pattern as in 2015-2016

Weakness in the 2nd half of 2015 and support in 2016 a continuation upwards.

12th SEPTEMBER 2015 REPORT

Therefore any short-term support must treat the 2015 50% as resistance for the rest of the year. (previous Report)

The Australian Market has continued its dramatic sell-off extending its low towards the 100% level of the Yearly Timeframe @ 4750

As noted in the previous report, the BEAR-Market pattern often extends towards the 2016 lows, If we use historical patterns clearly described in my book :- Market Trading Market Time, then we should see some consolidation around the current 2015 lows, but then further weakness from the 4th Quarter down into the 1st Quarter lows some time in March 2016

If that plays out, then I'd look to move back into Long positions in the Aussie Market 6 months from now using the 2016 lows and SUPPORT & ENTRY

As you can see in the above post from September 2015, I had already had a vision how the market would act for the rest of the year and I was extremely confident that there would be further weakness in 2016 and that those lows would support the market.

I was confident because the MARKET had already extended itself 100% of the Primary range on the downside in 2015.

We haven't had that happen in 2018/2019, as yet.

So even though I've got an expectation that 2019 will push lower, I'm not as confident that 2019 will be as a robust support as 2016.

Australia Stock Market SPI Futures 4th November 2018

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

As you know I've been bullish on the markets with the expectation that the trend continuing to move up into new highs until 2020-21.  

This is based on the 2016 lows and then the trend continuing higher using the Primary cycles for an initial two years (2018 highs) and up to 4/5 years (2020-21). There's also a ton of good economic news coming out of the US atm.

However, the break of the October lows and now trading below the 2018 50% level, suggests the trend will continue down into the November lows (Weekly cycles bearish)

We can also see the Quarterly cycles bearish (below Yellow), whereas earlier in the year they were support.

This now sets up the market being below the 2019 50% level and BEARISH PATTERNS that will go looking for 100% targets to the downside.

If you read the S&P 500 Report, the Primary Cycles are still bullish, but the same bearish patterns are aligning.

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Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures 13th October Report

Australia Stock Market

PRIMARY and WEEKLY CYCLES

As per the previous report, the short-term pattern suggested a move towards the 3-month lows.

The move spiked down as far as the 2018 50% level.

This Primary cycle 50% level defines the state of the BULL TREND, and I continue to be bullish into 2020-21

However, it still remains in a SHORT_TERM breakout pattern, which is going to struggle to move higher than 6041 for the rest of this month if there's Buying & 'short-covering' early next week.