Weekly charts:-SPI futures on the left and XJO Cash on the right.
Range bound between Quarterly Support and Resistance from the breakout of the previous Quarterly lows, and the current view is further weakness in the forward quarter in April if price isn't able to close above the 3-week cycle highs @ 6026.
We subscribe to support being valid (BUY) and the resistance being valid (SELL), but eventually one is going to fail:- reverse the down-trend and move higher, or continue with the down-trend into lower lows defined by higher timeframe analysis.
A Weekly pattern of a small 5-day range that has just completed can often move into a 3-day trending period upwards:- figure 27 in the book illustrates this, and I have modelled US markets to rise higher on Monday which gives further reason for the SPI to breakout of this 5-day range.
Daily chart SPI future 24 hours
A 3-day rally could move as high as the 100% Weekly 50% level....(SELL ZONE)
Or a breakout on the downside could move down towards the 100% lows (BUY ZONE), the latter will follow if US markets reverse down on Tuesday (Read US Weekly Report)
Daily Chart SPI Futures
Intra-day chart SPI Futures 44 point ranges
Last week's price action and consolidating 5-day pattern provided some robust patterns which provided high probability follow through. Friday's late rally was perfect example using the Reversal pattern and the R44 spiral low.
In Conclusion:-
The Analytical view of the market is valid until proven wrong or it changes.
The Analytical view of the market is range bound between Quarterly Support and Resistance until it's broken.
The Short-term view of the market has been modelled to move higher on Monday towards the 5-day highs, this is valid unless price is trading below 'support'.
A Monday that rises higher has a random length:- it might reach the 5-day highs or it might not, but it's not a 'shorting' day whilst trading above the 5-day 50% level.
A Monday that rises higher is the start of a new Trading week with the potential that price could continue higher each day:- 3-day rally until it reaches resistance.
A 'shorting' day will be valid around higher timeframe resistance and a higher open, but that will need to be confirmed by price moving back under the Weekly 50% level. If that price action occurs then my Analytical view is price is moving back down into Weekly lows, and at a much faster rate than many would expect based on US markets reversing.
That entire walk-forward scenario is valid and can play out precisely until proven wrong, and that is simply going to be defined by price trading on the either side of dynamic timeframe levels (50%) and support/resistance.... and using 44 point spirals.
Please Refer to the Daily Reports......
Daily Chart SPI FuturesLast's Week probability pattern:- was based on Monday's reaction to the Weekly 50% level:- above and price was moving towards the 5-day highs, like what occurred in US markets. This was because of Quarterly support and a lower Weekly open.
A down move on Monday and it was back into 'short-term' Risk trading using timeframe levels and spiral points. And that's what we got last Week.
Next week's Probability pattern is going to be defined by the 5-day 50% level @ 5595 and for the market to continue upwards it needs to break above the Weekly 50% level @ 5685 on the back of strength in US markets...
Intra-day chart SPI Futures 44 point rangesLast week's price action and consolidating 5-day pattern provided some robust patterns which provided high probability follow through. Friday's late rally was perfect example using the Reversal pattern and the R44 spiral low.
Next Week:- the Analytical view is that the market will breakout of the 5-day range, this should occur from price rising upwards from the 5-day 50% level and continue higher towards the 5-day highs.
The most robust pattern would be a rise from a 44 point low.
The 44 point range needs to complete before 'open-trading' begins on Monday:- A down move provides the best Risk entry.
If the 44 point range rises upwards on Monday into 5642, then it gets tricky because a couple of price patterns could play out on Monday....
It just continues higher towards the Weekly 50% level and more (opens higher on Tuesday based on US markets rising higher)
Or.....It moves down from the R44 high (gap completion from Friday @ 5638) and once again moves into a rotating-stalling daily pattern (opens higher based on US markets)
In Conclusion:-
The Analytical view of the market is valid until proven wrong or it changes.
The Analytical view of the market is range bound between Quarterly Support and Resistance until it's broken.
The Short-term view of the market has been modelled to move higher on Monday towards the 5-day highs, this is valid unless price is trading below 'support'.
A Monday that rises higher has a random length:- it might reach the 5-day highs or it might not, but it's not a 'shorting' day whilst trading above the 5-day 50% level.
A Monday that rises higher is the start of a new Trading week with the potential that price could continue higher each day:- 3-day rally until it reaches resistance.
A 'shorting' day will be valid around higher timeframe resistance and a higher open, but that will need to be confirmed by price moving back under the Weekly 50% level. If that price action occurs then my Analytical view is price is moving back down into Weekly lows, and at a much faster rate than many would expect based on US markets reversing.
That entire walk-forward scenario is valid and can play out precisely until proven wrong, and that is simply going to be defined by price trading on the either side of dynamic timeframe levels (50%) and support/resistance.... and using 44 point spirals.
Please Refer to the Daily Reports......
