SPI Weekly Report 8th March 2008

XJO Weekly charts

Expectation of the 2nd wave down from April has started earlier in March, and the next Quarterly lows are being pushed further down.

What that basically means is that: the reversal back upwards into the April 50% level is going to be much less and will be relatively flat, and the potential down move in the next Quarter is going to be greater.

We can see how valid the 2nd phase of the bear market has been, as it's consolidating under the Yearly 50% level with the view that the bear market will move down into a 2 year wave pattern lower.

I still have the view that price will re-test the 50% level in the next Quarter, but the reversal upwards is going to be much less than if price had remained supported....

"SPI is back down into Quarterly support, with the expectation of further weakness down from the next Quarter in April.....However, SPI futures has closed on a Monthly timeframe (last day of the month) below Quarterly support. This isn't a good sign when the Monthly timeframe closes outside a major support zone on it's last day." Previous Weekly report


SPI Weekly Chart:- Last week’s close on the last day of the Month below Quarterly support was the first sign that these support zones would fail.

The 2nd sign was the break of the 3-week lows, with the expectation that the market path would begin a move down towards the March Lows.

This was helped by the US market following the exact same pattern of the Weekly Range breakouts.

SPI Daily chart:- On Monday price will be opening around the Weekly lows @ 5165, and the expectation remains that price is moving down into March lows.

Any reversal upwards from Weekly lows and it's only viewed as a short-term 2-3 day pattern before the trend continues down into March lows.

SPI Daily and SPI 24 hour chart

We can see the difference in Weekly ranges when we take into effect the overnight market action and larger Ranges.

What is a Weekly low in the day session, is much further down in the 24 hour market, with the Weekly lows @ 5013.

Intra-day 44 point Ranges

And each move is based on the 5-day ranges:- below 5181 on Monday and price is moving lower.

Above 5181 and price is starting a 2-day upward move before it continues down:- ideally from the 5-day 50% level...

But the market is going down into March lows and Support.....(Next Consolidation Phase)

Please read the Daily Report.....