4th Week:- last week of the month often starts the next trend, which leads into the continuation of the trend in the following month, but who is not to say that next Week just continues higher"....
Previous Weekly Report
SPI Weekly and Daily charts
I've been bearish on the market in this Quarter with the expectation that price would make lower lows in August before a 3-month counter-trend upwards would occur.
But when certain things happen I have to acknowledge that a continuation downward in this Quarter might not eventuate.
Even though price is still trading below the Monthly 50% levels in September, This week's 4th week rally and breakout of the 3-week highs normally shows further strength in the new month....
SPI Weekly futures
Above is the SPI Weekly futures showing the 3-week cycles (White line)
Whenever price closes on the opposite side, the market often reverses the trend.
It occurred in March and June, and now in August.
The big difference between the two previous 3-week breaks and now are:- I had an overall view that price was reversing from March lows and moving into a 2-month rally into May's highs. In June I had the view that markets were coming down from May's highs into a lower low pattern in July.
In August I don't have a view on any counter-trend move upwards.
I do have the view of a 3-month UP move, but only if it made lower lows this Month, which it hasn't.
Therefore:- like in April this year expectation still remains that September 50% level is resistance which could last for the next 2 weeks (more consolidation):- Ideal for spiral point trading and 5-day patterns.
And if price does continue higher towards October's highs it should push higher in the 3rd week.
Note:- Contract expiry this month.
Expiry of contract normally supports the market or even push higher into Expiry.
SPI 5-day pattern"Personally I hope it remains in a sideways pattern, especially when day trading futures....
These markets are ideal for the way I trade:- consolidating trading patterns of weekly sideways price action favours swing trading, which is the core theory of spiral point trading (c).
There is enough volatility in the market that it moves 87 points and not just 44 points.
When markets trend in one direction, the frequency drops and volatility drops especially when Market rise, not so much when markets go down.
The end result in trending markets are, my profits drop because my frequency of trades drop"
And last week's 5-day pattern in the SPI was ideal and text book spiral trading, and hopefully for the next two weeks it remains the same.....
