XJO Australian IndexExpectation that Global Index markets would swing back into the November 50% level and then continue down into November's lows.
At this stage the expectation is that November's lows will form a robust support zone, but continue lower into December's lows.....
Dilernia Principle:- 2 timeframe wave pattern on the breakout.
Once December's lows are reached, then there is an expectation that market will swing back up to retest the Yearly low breakout @ 4232 , and then continue down in 2009.
SPI Monthly and Weekly
November's lows should be reached next week, which will coincide with the G20 meeting giving markets enough reason to reverse off their lows and swing back into the Weekly 50% level.
But because of the monthly 2 timeframe wave pattern, I've modelled a lower low in December before the market reverses back towards 4200+.
There is still an expectation that 2009 will go lower, but the pattern to confirm the market going lower is a re-test of the break early in 2009 then continue down into lower lows.
SPI Monthly and Weekly 24 hours.
In the 24 hour market :- the Dilernia Model has different levels because of the greater ranges.
We often see price move in the day session within their own timeframe levels, but will extend to greater ranges based on the 24 hour model.
In the day session the SPI continued down into the Weekly lows @ 3747.
But in the 24 hour market, price continued down into it's own Weekly lows @ 3674.
What do you notice when the market broke out of Octobers lows?
The market moved in a 2 timeframe wave pattern down into the Weekly lows @ 3706 and then reversed back towards the November 50% level.
Next Week the double Weekly lows @ 3559 match closely to November's lows, and the expectation of a swing back towards the Weekly 50% level.
I'm not expecting markets to rise much further than the Weekly 50% level, but there is a possibility of a 4th Week UP move but more weakness in early December.
