SPI FuturesSPI Completes the 3rd Quarter move into the Yearly 50% level @ 4455.
That was my entire 3rd Quarter UP move play, which occurred much quicker than I wanted it to.
My preferred play was the reversal down from August highs @ 4313 and trade longs once again off Monthly support into these highs based on another 2 month higher high pattern.
This now completes the 3rd quarter move, and I won’t have a view until this month ends or even the next quarter begins.
Exact same pattern in 2003 stalled at this precise level and reversed down into trailing support levels and then continued higher in the following Quarter.
If it follows the same pattern, then the next UP move into the market is more likely to align with the start of the 4th Quarter.
Financial Index As pointed out a while ago, the UP trend in the market were going to be lead by financial Stocks.
3rd Quarter 'thrust' pattern into Yearly 50% level has completed.
Any further UP moves would need to align with the 4th Quarter 50% level.
Set-up A:- continues up from the 4th quarter 50% level and into the highs, which aligns with the Yearly 2010 highs.
If that happens then price can push back down into the Yearly 50% level in 2010 and consolidates for a number of Quarters during next year and move into a long term sideway pattern until the 2nd half of 2010.
However, for me to BUY into banks right now, I would actually need to see the Index come all the way back down into the 50% level in this Quarter and where the 'Thrust' pattern began. (Set-up B)
Set-up B:- finds support, which could then lead to Set-up A occurring, or it might even struggle for the rest of the 4th Quarter if it can’t get back above the 4th Quarter 50% level.
If that happens then price action is going to be dependant on the 4th Quarter 50% level, because price might end up moving sideways until the end of the year and 2010 begins.
If that's the case, then next trend will then be based on the Yearly 50% level for 2010.
Set-up C:- continues up from the Yearly 2010 50% level and back towards the 2010 highs, but could remain range bound between the highs and 50% level over a number of Quarters until the 2nd half of 2010.
Set-up D set-up…
Opens near the 2010 Yearly 50% level and sells down quickly over a number of months into the lows once again, and then swings back above the Yearly 50% level in 2010 in the 2nd half of the year.
If that happens then banks will continue higher over the next 2-3 years into a long term UP trend
Basically, the 4th quarter 50% level is going to set-up my the next BUY strategy and i'll wait until then, or unless SET-UP B plays out.
Any further UP moves would need to align with the 4th Quarter 50% level.
Set-up A:- continues up from the 4th quarter 50% level and into the highs, which aligns with the Yearly 2010 highs.
If that happens then price can push back down into the Yearly 50% level in 2010 and consolidates for a number of Quarters during next year and move into a long term sideway pattern until the 2nd half of 2010.
However, for me to BUY into banks right now, I would actually need to see the Index come all the way back down into the 50% level in this Quarter and where the 'Thrust' pattern began. (Set-up B)
Set-up B:- finds support, which could then lead to Set-up A occurring, or it might even struggle for the rest of the 4th Quarter if it can’t get back above the 4th Quarter 50% level.
If that happens then price action is going to be dependant on the 4th Quarter 50% level, because price might end up moving sideways until the end of the year and 2010 begins.
If that's the case, then next trend will then be based on the Yearly 50% level for 2010.
Set-up C:- continues up from the Yearly 2010 50% level and back towards the 2010 highs, but could remain range bound between the highs and 50% level over a number of Quarters until the 2nd half of 2010.
Set-up D set-up…
Opens near the 2010 Yearly 50% level and sells down quickly over a number of months into the lows once again, and then swings back above the Yearly 50% level in 2010 in the 2nd half of the year.
If that happens then banks will continue higher over the next 2-3 years into a long term UP trend
Basically, the 4th quarter 50% level is going to set-up my the next BUY strategy and i'll wait until then, or unless SET-UP B plays out.
