Aussie Index (SPI) 26 Dec 2009 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

"Friday's price action often suggests that next week will begin with a 2-day UP move:- random length.

Tuesday is above 4690, then there is a bias to move into a higher Weekly close and towards the Weekly highs @ 4811"...... (Previous Weekly report )

Last week’s played out as expected after the price action in the previous week and Friday’s pattern suggest the market would begin with a bias of the first 2-days rising. Once there was a 5-day pattern breakout on Wednesday ( above 4690) the rest of the week expected to trend upwards.

At this stage the trend remains buoyant and most likely continue towards the January highs in the first Quarter.

I should have a better idea on market dynamics after 1 more week and potential trends for 2010.

Aussie Index (SPI) 18 Dec 2009 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

With the SPI trading below the December 50% levels and not moving down into December lows this week, it's now looking like the market will remain in a consolidation pattern until the end of the Year.

Friday's price action often suggests that next week will begin with a 2-day UP move:- random length.

Therefore if the first day is trading above 4690 (daily close), there could be a chance that the market is moving back towards the 3-week highs @ 4811.

Based on the overall market dynamics I still favour a down move in 2010, but if Tuesday is above 4690, then there is a bias to move into a higher Weekly close.

Of course any moves in the market will be dependant on price action in US markets.

Aussie Index (SPI) 12 Dec 2009 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Last week the market was trading above the December 50% levels, and the expectation was for the trend to continue higher.

I also pointed out that I expected the first 2-days in the week to move lower, and when that occured this placed the trend below the monthly 50% levels on Wednesday and it's struggled to move higher ever since.

If the Trend is going to follow the trend down in 2010, then the market should continue lower next week, and then continue lower in the first Quarter of 2010 towards 4300

However, based on the price action in the US there doesn't seem to be the same 'weak' trend appearing, and if price is trading back above the December 50% levels next week then the bias is to move back towards 4831 and the 4th Quarter ends up a consoldating 3-month range after October's highs

The 3-week cycle is a 'SELL'. (white @ 4831)

For the market to get bullish there needs to be a Weekly close back above 4831.

And if that happens then the January Quarter 50% level is the trend guide with the potential to push upwards in early 2010.

At this stage I'm happy to sit on the sidelines until the first Quarter of 2010 (trading stocks)

Aussie Index (SPI) 5 Dec 2009 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Expectation of higher prices in December as part of a 2-month wave pattern upward during the current 3-month cycle.

As long as price remains above the December 50% levels, the bias is to continue higher.

Depending on the price action in US markets early next week, there could be early weakness in the first two days, but if price remains above support I’m expecting the market to continue higher into a higher Friday close.

Last week’s UP move and short-term reversal pattern down on Friday, is normally associated with the change of the 3-day cycle from a ‘sell’ into a ‘BUY’.

The market normally stalls and reverses to retest support levels and then price continues with the monthly trend.

Even though the UP trend during this month is expected to rise higher, (2-month wave pattern) I’m also expecting a larger trend reversal into 2010 (read previous reports).

Normally I can pre-empt those larger trend reversals in the market, but for next week I have the view of the trend remaining stable.