Aussie Index (SPI) 12 Dec 2009 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Last week the market was trading above the December 50% levels, and the expectation was for the trend to continue higher.

I also pointed out that I expected the first 2-days in the week to move lower, and when that occured this placed the trend below the monthly 50% levels on Wednesday and it's struggled to move higher ever since.

If the Trend is going to follow the trend down in 2010, then the market should continue lower next week, and then continue lower in the first Quarter of 2010 towards 4300

However, based on the price action in the US there doesn't seem to be the same 'weak' trend appearing, and if price is trading back above the December 50% levels next week then the bias is to move back towards 4831 and the 4th Quarter ends up a consoldating 3-month range after October's highs

The 3-week cycle is a 'SELL'. (white @ 4831)

For the market to get bullish there needs to be a Weekly close back above 4831.

And if that happens then the January Quarter 50% level is the trend guide with the potential to push upwards in early 2010.

At this stage I'm happy to sit on the sidelines until the first Quarter of 2010 (trading stocks)