Aussie Index (SPI) 27 March 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly

Quarter coming into an end, with upside targets in the 2nd Quarter @ 5100+

SPI trading around the March highs with the expectation that price is going to continue higher in the 2nd Quarter.

This up move into the March highs completes a 2-month wave pattern during this Quarterly cycle, and if trading on the BUY side (stocks) we want to look for the next 'long' set-up during the next Quarterly cycle.

The most ideal set-up to capture any longs in the market would be a rotation back towards the April 50% level.

There isn't a breakout of the 3-month highs, but there is a breakout of the single monthly highs @ 4727 (red).

Because there is a breakout I would treat the market as a break & extend pattern during the single month, which means it's more likely to push upwards in early April before it rotates back downward.



SPI Weekly and 5-day range (24 hour market)

The medium term trend is defined by the Weekly 50% level, so it won't take much for the market to change with price trading below.

Trend guide on Monday @ 4930, and there is still the possibility that next week begins with a 2-day down day based on the Friday 5-day highs resistance.

If the trend is going to continue higher it can remain above the Weekly 50% level and continue up until April begins:- first Quarter target 5107

If price does drops below the Weekly 50% level, then the 3-week lows is the support zone for the next leg upwards.

Aussie Index (SPI) 20 March 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Based on market dynamics and where my view of US markets are going into 2010 (read US report).... I favour the SPI (Aussie Market) still following SET-UP B.

SET-UP B:- retests the 3-month 50% level in the 2nd quarter and then continues up towards 5190

In the Short-term with the price acton in the DOW, I would favour a rotation back towards the Weekly 50% level, but the SPI could remain above the Weekly 50% level until the end of the Quarter. (March)

Aussie Index (SPI) 13 March 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly & Weekly

At this stage the expectation is that the Australian market is heading higher.

We can see the Weekly highs match the March highs, and if everything follows a 'text-book' pattern the market should continue towards higher highs in the 2nd Quarter.

However, things might look like they are going higher, but the price action in the S&P 500 differs.

Read US report

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/2010/03/s-e-mini-13th-march-2010-weekly.html

SPI Daily 6th March 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Last week's 2-day UP move started the ball rolling with a move above the March 50% level, and helped by the S&P heading into the February highs @ 1138.

Expectation price is heading higher in the next Quarter towards the 2nd Quarter highs.

The most robust pattern for any higher moves would have to be the March highs stalling price, and then moving higher in the 2nd Quarter using the 3-month 50% levels.

In the short-term I would have to treat the SPI supported above 4727-4759 for the rest of this Quarter, but capped under the March highs.