"3d Quarter 'thrust' pattern into the 2009 Yearly 50% level has completed from the March lows.
Any further UP moves would need to align with the 4th Quarter 50% level,and continue up from the 4th quarter 50% level and into the highs, which aligns with the Yearly 2010 highs.
If that happens then price can push back down into the Yearly 50% level in 2010 and consolidate for a number of Quarters during next year and move into a long term sideways pattern until the 2nd half of 2010"
SPI Monthly and Weekly
9 months later and this pattern has played out precisely in the Australian market.
The Yearly 50% level in 2010 is supporting the market and we can now moved into a multi-sideways consolidation pattern.
In the short-term there is a breakout of the MAY lows, therefore there is an expectation that price will try and move downward in June using the 50% level as a trend guide next week.
Note:- Weekly timeframe remains in MAY until the end of next week.
However, what happens if the S&P 500 follows the same pattern and moves down into the 2010 50% level, that is 100 points lower or 1000 points in the DOW.
Some of the biggest sell offs occur in the last month of the Quarter as price begins the month at the 50% level.
Even though the Aussie market looks like it can consolidate, the worrying pattern is the S&P 500 and the current patterns that are occuring right at this moment.
What happens if the S&P follows last year's forecast...
That can put the Aussie market down around 3400 (Yearly lows) and probably the bottom of the cycle lows for 2010.
In conclusion:- It's too early to get comfortable with current support levels
