Above is the SPI Futures Weekly chart...
Last week price was range bound between the January 50% level and the Yearly 50% level, with each day rising upwards from lower opens, and reversing down from higher opens or anytime it got close to Monthly 50% levels.
Next week with US markets falling, the SPI will open below the Quarterly 50% levels and Yearly BP. This will be the first time since 2003 that price is below the Yearly 50% balance point.
We can also see a shift in timeframes and January lows are lower than December, and a reference for any potential weakness next week.
Last Week ended up closing in the middle of the 5-day range after 6295 ended up supporting the market, and this is an important level next week for any UP move, because above 6293 price will be back above the Weekly 50% level, as it has shifted lower from 6392 down to 6293
The Weekly 50% level:- is a reversal target early next week, above it and market is heading back to the 3-day highs and January 50% levels. The latter might take the entire week for this to happen. (Higher Weekly close)
Because on Monday we have 'gap-Trading' probability once again, with the expectation that the gap will close on Monday and reverse back into the Weekly 50% level.
If this is the case, then price will back above the Yearly and Quarterly 50% levels, and if there are any upside moves in the US next week (refer to the US weekly Report), this is going to push the SPI higher also....
In conclusion:- I'm leaning to a bullish Weekly timeframe if the first part of the 'gap-trading' eventuates, and then US markets rotate upwards from support towards their own Weekly 50% level.
When we look at the Weekly chart of the XJO (CASH) the Weekly timeframe from 2007 has just completed. The open on Monday will officially start the Weekly timeframe for 2008, and this has confirmed the 'Primary balance point' of 6213.
Above 6213 in the cash market and Primary Trend remains UP....
In Conclusion:- SPI Futures will open below all timeframe 50% levels on Monday, this is extremely bearish. The potential to move down into lower lows is highly probable:- open outside 6231 and the 5-day lows (bearish)
However, on Monday I'm favouring longs based on 'gap-trading' probability with a swing back towards the Weekly 50% levels. If the market is going to move down, then it will fail here and move down from this level.
If the market swings back towards the Weekly 50% level on Monday, and then opens above it the next day, I favour a weekly timeframe that closes higher, as it rotates back towards January 50% levels:- Next Week's Risk level is 6293
Please Refer to the Daily reports "the Trader Trading" for Monday's trading:-
Premium Report:- market opening below 5-day lows @ 6231, be careful on 22 point UP move and then failure outside the 5-day range lows:- reversing down taking out the lows.
Do not trade longs if this is the case on Monday, as expectation price is heading down towards the January lows...
