Australian Market YearlyThe Australian Market is going lower in 2009!!!
However it depends how it's getting there that's the important thing when trading.
Currently the Market is in Set-up A:- drifting lower below the Monthly 50% levels and following the dynamic timeframes lower.
Eventually price will reach the 2009 Yearly lows, but it still won't be the lows for 2009. But i'll get back to that in a few weeks time in the new Year.
Set-UP B:- Is what I think will happen or hope to happen.
SET-UP B is based on a timeframe breakout.
A Timeframe breakout normally comes back and retests the breakout at the start of the new timeframe, in this instance the Yearly breakout @ 4232 in 2008, and the start of the new Yearly timeframe in 2009.
Therefore my expectation is that early in the first Quarter price will try to make it's way back towards 4232, and then continue lower.
SPI Futures Monthly
"Those 3-week highs in all global Index markets are extremely valid resistance zones, and have been all year.
But eventually they will break, and markets will begin a rotation upwards as part of the larger timeframe cycles" Previous Weekly report
We can see the test of the 3-week highs early on Monday and the push down.
Set-up B won't occur until there is a breakout and a Friday close above those highs (3763)
Once that occurs I'll be looking for a move towards December's 50% level (resistance), stall and another consolidation period for about 2 weeks, and then a higher move back towards the Quarterly 50% level in the first Quarter of 2009.
That price action meets the Yearly timeframe breakout.
Once that occurs I would be looking for the next leg of the down trend into the 2009 lows.
SPI FUTURES WEEKLYAs we can see there was a shift in the Weekly 50% level from top to bottom, and whilst price is trading above the Weekly 50% levels, I still have the view that markets should be heading higher, but we need to verify this with a breakout of those 3-week highs.
For Day traders they can see the same re-occurring patterns over the past 3 weeks, Higher daily opens result in lower Daily closes, and lower Daily opens result in higher daily closes.
Eventually there will be a breakout of the 3-week range and will result in the next trending period, which in fact is simply the rotation back towards higher timeframe 50% levels, and the next 'Thurst' pattern based on the Dilernia principles of following the Primary cycles of the market into new lows in 2009.
