SPI Monthly
SPI consolidating since finding support around November's lows.
I still have an expectation that the Market will continue lower in 2009, but I would like to see the SPI rotate upwards into the Quarterly 50% level before it continues down in the new year.
But that won't occur until there is a Friday close and breakout of the 3-week highs @ 3761.
This is simply based on price rotating back into the higher timeframe midpoints before the next trend continues lower in the new year.
For every breakout price will normally come back and test the breakout in the next Timeframe and then continue with the trend. A perfect example was October breakout and then the rotation back into the November 50% level, and then Drive down into lower lows in November.
SPI Monthly and Weekly
The down trend in the 4th Quarter ceased once price found support at the November lows but was verified with the shift in the Weekly 50% level @ 3506, and the market has now moved in a tight 3-week sideways pattern, which eventually price will breakout of.
As mentioned before, any up-trend won’t occur until there is a breakout of the 3-week highs.
Next Week gets interesting on the SPI as there is a divergence of the Weekly timeframes and a shift in the Filter from above to below @ 3532 (brown).
The downtrend can continue lower next week if trading below 3532 which is part of the bigger picture of continuing lower in 2009, and confirmed with a breakout of the 3-week lows.
But it also can be the spring board for the rotation upwards, which is what I think will happen, completing the retest of the Yearly breakout @ 4232 and the rotation back into the higher timeframe Quarterly 50% level.
As a SPI Futures day-trader I'll be trading on the side of 3606 as my bias either way next week.
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