Aussie Index (SPI) 26 Dec 2009 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

"Friday's price action often suggests that next week will begin with a 2-day UP move:- random length.

Tuesday is above 4690, then there is a bias to move into a higher Weekly close and towards the Weekly highs @ 4811"...... (Previous Weekly report )

Last week’s played out as expected after the price action in the previous week and Friday’s pattern suggest the market would begin with a bias of the first 2-days rising. Once there was a 5-day pattern breakout on Wednesday ( above 4690) the rest of the week expected to trend upwards.

At this stage the trend remains buoyant and most likely continue towards the January highs in the first Quarter.

I should have a better idea on market dynamics after 1 more week and potential trends for 2010.

Aussie Index (SPI) 18 Dec 2009 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

With the SPI trading below the December 50% levels and not moving down into December lows this week, it's now looking like the market will remain in a consolidation pattern until the end of the Year.

Friday's price action often suggests that next week will begin with a 2-day UP move:- random length.

Therefore if the first day is trading above 4690 (daily close), there could be a chance that the market is moving back towards the 3-week highs @ 4811.

Based on the overall market dynamics I still favour a down move in 2010, but if Tuesday is above 4690, then there is a bias to move into a higher Weekly close.

Of course any moves in the market will be dependant on price action in US markets.

Aussie Index (SPI) 12 Dec 2009 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Last week the market was trading above the December 50% levels, and the expectation was for the trend to continue higher.

I also pointed out that I expected the first 2-days in the week to move lower, and when that occured this placed the trend below the monthly 50% levels on Wednesday and it's struggled to move higher ever since.

If the Trend is going to follow the trend down in 2010, then the market should continue lower next week, and then continue lower in the first Quarter of 2010 towards 4300

However, based on the price action in the US there doesn't seem to be the same 'weak' trend appearing, and if price is trading back above the December 50% levels next week then the bias is to move back towards 4831 and the 4th Quarter ends up a consoldating 3-month range after October's highs

The 3-week cycle is a 'SELL'. (white @ 4831)

For the market to get bullish there needs to be a Weekly close back above 4831.

And if that happens then the January Quarter 50% level is the trend guide with the potential to push upwards in early 2010.

At this stage I'm happy to sit on the sidelines until the first Quarter of 2010 (trading stocks)

Aussie Index (SPI) 5 Dec 2009 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Expectation of higher prices in December as part of a 2-month wave pattern upward during the current 3-month cycle.

As long as price remains above the December 50% levels, the bias is to continue higher.

Depending on the price action in US markets early next week, there could be early weakness in the first two days, but if price remains above support I’m expecting the market to continue higher into a higher Friday close.

Last week’s UP move and short-term reversal pattern down on Friday, is normally associated with the change of the 3-day cycle from a ‘sell’ into a ‘BUY’.

The market normally stalls and reverses to retest support levels and then price continues with the monthly trend.

Even though the UP trend during this month is expected to rise higher, (2-month wave pattern) I’m also expecting a larger trend reversal into 2010 (read previous reports).

Normally I can pre-empt those larger trend reversals in the market, but for next week I have the view of the trend remaining stable.

Aussie Index (SPI) 28 Nov 2009 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

In the short-term the direction of the Australian Market is going to be defined by the December 50% levels.

Last week I was bullish on the Australian market, but only if US markets (S&P 500) had moved down into the Weekly 50% levels.

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/2009/11/dow-s-28th-november-2009-weekly.html

That never happened until Friday's trading, and if the SPI is above the December 50% levels the bias is to move upwards or remain supported.

However, as pointed out in the US market report, i'm looking for larger cycle rotations in 2010...

And if price is below the December 50% levels, the bias is to continue down in the next 3-month cycle (1st Quarter 2010)

Aussie Index (SPI) 21 Nov 2009 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Is the SPI going to continue higher in December and move towards 4996...

or is the SPI going to continue down and move down into the November lows?

That's going to depend on the price action in the S&P 500 over the next 2 days...

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/2009/11/s-500-futures-21st-nov-09-weekly.html

The SPI is in a 3-week sell cycle...

If the SPI was going to go higher it would have closed back above the 3-week cycle highs to once again change the cycle into a BUY.

Normally a change of cycle will move into a 2-period 'stall' pattern and then continue with the trend.


The SPI has now completed a 2-week stall pattern but still in a SELL cycle.

If US markets move down and continue down on Tuesday...

The 3-week sell cycle on the SPI will most likely break the monthly 50% levels and continue down into the monthly lows.

Note:- if US markets continue to remain supported above the Weekly 50% level and Tuesday closes higher...

The SPI will remain above the Weekly 50% levels and mostly likely follow a move upwards.

Aussie Index (SPI) 14 Nov 2009 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Last Week’s Friday close above the November 50% levels and 3-week lows along with the expectation that the S&P would move higher early in the week set up a 3-day rally.

"Robust swing points to trade longs from lower prices from next Friday. The trend would continue down another week, but then provide support next Friday and for a large 3-day counter-trend rally back upwards the week after that" 31st October

As pointed out during the week, ideally sell a higher Thursday open or exit longs, as there was an expectation that there would be a 2-day pullback into support levels before any potential higher moves in November.

Those support levels aligned with the 5-day 50% level with buying support on Friday and helped by the S&P 500 having an UP day in the US on Friday.

Whilst price is above the support levels and the 3-day cycle the view is to continue towards the November highs.

If there is a daily close below the 3-day cycle low early next week, then the SPI will probably end up drifting lower and remain in a choppy 5-day pattern and then continue higher the week after that.

I can't see any major selling that's going to effect the SPI over the next 5-days.

A major reversal down would have only occured if Thursday's sell day and Friday had close below the Weekly 50% levels. (back into the November 50% levels)

Aussie Index (SPI) 7 Nov 2009 Weekly

SPI monthly

Last Week saw the market reverse back down into SET-UP A and remain below the 3-week lows (4574) for most of the week until Friday, when price move back this key level closing the Weekly timeframe above.


With price closing higher on Friday and above a number of key levels, (Yearly 50% level 4455, the November 50% level, and the 3-week lows) at this stage I favour the Australian market following SET-UP B, and heading back towards the highs, helped by the US markets following the same pattern.

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

"Robust swing points to trade longs from lower prices from next Friday. The trend would continue down another week, but then provide support next Friday and for a large 3-day counter-trend rally back upwards the week after that" Previous US Weekly report

The SPI has tested the Yearly 50% level @ 4455, and is now rising upwards.

My lower Friday pattern ended up a higher Friday pattern, with the cross-over of the 5-day 50% level @ 4561 but I expected far more buying on Friday to be closing near the weekly 50% level and Monday opening above.

Even though I'm bullish from these levels, there needs to be lesser timeframe patterns to validate support:- Price to be trading above the Weekly 50% level, and also breaking out of the 5-day high.

At this stage Monday will be trading near the 5-day high and below resistance, which might see a 2-day stall pattern.

Aussie Index (SPI) 31 Oct 2009 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Last week's view was based on the S&P 500 dropping with a Monday high set-up and a Tuesday trending down day, as part of SET-UP A

At the start of October if you recall, my expectation was a short term pullback into the 3-week lows for support and for a move upwards in October to complete the 3-month cycle tops as part of the breakout pattern from July and into October.

This played out precisely.

Once the 3-monthly cycle was completed (October highs), these 3-week lows are first target pullback zones, with SET-UP A favouring a move back down into the monthly 50% levels.

There might not be a Set-up A in the S&P 500, but there was in the Australian markets.

Resistance as shown...

There might be lower swing points for a short-term counter-trend moves from lower prices next week around the October 50% levels back into resistance levels.

But how it reacts to the resistance levels is important, because a failure can follow the market dynamics down into November lows.

Above resistance, (week close) and the 4th Quarter will probably remain range bound and consolidate until the end of the Year.

Aussie Index (SPI) 23 Oct 2009 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

October highs expected resistance after completing the 3-month cycle breakout from July.

There is an expected pullback in the markets, and that pullback is dependant on the S&P 500.

To understand what might happen next week, it's best to read the US Weekly report

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

A break of the Weekly 50% levels and first target will be the 3-week lows.

Aussie Index (SPI) 17 Oct 2009 Weekly

SPI Monthly

SPI and US markets complete the 3-month cycle breakout patterns from July into October.

Normally when these cycles complete price will move into a rotation pattern looking for the monthly 50% levels.

Sure the market can go higher, but at this stage I'm treating the Global Equity markets as range bound around upper resistance levels until November

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Next Week is simply a view of price being range bound between the Weekly 50% levels, and maybe travel as high as the Weekly highs.

Any moves during the week will be based on using the support or resistance levels within the 5-day pattern.

Bearish patterns around the October highs, will need to be verified with a Friday close below the Weekly 50& levels.

At this stage next week starts around support levels in the 5-day pattern

Aussie Index (SPI) 10 Oct 2009 Weekly

SPI monthly

The move upwards this week aligned with the S&P 500 rising up from the 3-week lows, and any higher move in the 4th Quarter will be based on November's 50% level.

And 3-month cycle July breakout pattern should complete the October highs next week.


Once the October highs are reached this will complete the 3-month breakout pattern and I won't have another long term view until November because certain patterns can occur once the cycle ends.

October highs are seen as resistance, and it is obvious that any UP trend needs to remain above the Monthly 50% levels, so a pullback into the November 50% level is highly likely over the next few weeks.

The same applies with the Financial Stocks. The financial stocks have been driving most of this trend upwards, and they will complete the breakout and extend pattern around October highs. Once that happens price normally goes looking for 3-month 50% levels.

4th Quarter target as shown above, but that won't be reached if the S&P 500 is trading below the November 50% level. (read US report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 3rd Oct 2009 Weekly

SPI monthly

SPI continues to consolidate over the past couple of weeks around the September high levels.

There is an expectation that price will continue towards the October
highs based on the breakout and extend pattern from July:- break
in the 3-month cycles will normally continue to move towards the highs in the
next 3-month cycle:- October/November.

Along the way I like to have preferred patterns to trade the larger cycles,
my first preferred pattern was the Yearly 50% level @ 4455 to resist
price and then trade longs from the monthly 50% level for the next
move upwards.

However that didn’t occur, and once above 4455 at the end of August
the trend was going higher, helped by the S&P moving into it’s own
Yearly 50% levels which was lagging at the time.

Capturing the rest of the trend is based on the smaller thrust patterns
using the weekly 50% levels and Weekly open strategies, helped by
set-ups within the S&P 500

And the same applies in the 4th quarter.

Expectation of a higher move to complete the break and extend pattern
from July, but as pointed out in the Premium Report, my preferred pattern is
to see a ‘dip’ early in October and retest the 3-week lows.

A dip doesn't have to be large, I would just like to see a retest of the
3-week lows which 4442 and around the Yearly 50% level for the next move upwards.

However, it will be based on the price action in the S&P 500 over the next 3 -days.

Read US market report.

Aussie Index (SPI) 26th Sept Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

With the SPI range trading within the September levels and remaining above 4656, and with only a few days to go until October begins, I have to favour a continuation of the Trend upwards in the early part of October.

Breakout pattern in the Quarterly timeframe (3-month cycle) in July is continuing into higher highs into the next Quarter:- break and extend pattern.

At this stage with the market above the Yearly 50% levels and 3-Year 50% levels, and now consolidating above the 3rd Quarter highs, the trend keeps on keeping on.

At this stage I'm not going to forecast a 4th Quarter 'top', but simply treat each month on it's own merit until and lesser timeframe gives me clues on any short-term reversal patterns that could lead to longer-term reversal patterns towards trailing 50% levels in the monthly timeframes.

Aussie Index (SPI) 19th Sept Weekly

SPI Weekly

Last Week's view was a 2-day pullback and a UP move from Wednesday into the September highs.

There was a continuation into higher highs on Thursday based on US markets moving higher on Wednesday and the SPI has closed above 4656....

At this stage I would expect a slightly higher move in October to fullfil the breakout and extend pattern from the 3rd Quarter (July) and continuation higher into October.

Once we move into the 4th Quarter starting in October, the trend will depend greatly on the price action in the US, (Read the US report)

And like all good breakouts I would like price to revisit the break sometime in the future, which can often occur in the next 3 month period, especially if the S&P struggles to move higher than 1073.

That retest of the breakout is around 4159.

Aussie Index (SPI) 11th Sept Weekly

SPI Monthly

SPI continuing higher with the 3rd Quarter UP move in September.

Not the price action I wanted to see happen even though my expectation was that price would move higher.

As mentioned a number of times previously. my preferred option would have been SET-UP A:- a move down into support from 4455 and then another Wave higher.

This would have provided another long set-up and more 'bang for the buck and th the 3rd quarter rise

Instead SET-UP B has continued higher with the August high close above the Yearly 50% level and higher move towards September highs.

At this stage once the September highs are reached I'll will continue to look for a rotation back down into support. (50%) SET-UP C



SPI Weekly and Primary range spiral filter

SET-UP B was set-up with last Week's support and this week's lower open and rise up from support, and also helped by the exact same price action in the US markets.

after Friday's highs, I'm looking for a 2-day pullback into trailing support.

The first sign of SET-UP C occurring will be price closing below the 50% levels

Aussie Index (SPI) 5th Sept Weekly

SPI Futures

SPI trading around the Yearly 50% level @ 4455...

I do have a view of higher prices into the 4th Quarter...

However, my preferred pattern continues to remain price drifting sideways until the 4th Quarter and rising up from the 50% levels

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI trading above Weekly support and can continue higher next week....

However, for the next couple of weeks i'm leaning to a sideways pattern until the 4th Quarter begins.

For SPI traders it's simply trading on the right side of the levels in the 5-day range, and looking for those 21-42 point intra-day range patterns.

Aussie Index (SPI) 29th August Weekly

SPI Futures

Expectation that a move towards 4455 would play out in the 3rd Quarter from the July Thrust pattern and then reverse down into the 50% levels before the next leg upwards.

Or that is what I hope for.

The reversal down was based on price retesting the July breakout and matched with the 50% levels and then heading higher into the end of quarter.

The 2nd week top @ 4455 and 3rd Week reversal should have continued down in the 4th Week, and not have a lower Weekly open above 4314:- rising and higher Weekly close.

4314 was the August highs, and price will most likely follow the September pattern towards 4664, as the monthly timeframe will close above the August highs.

SPI Daily

Trend support next Week is 4367-95, with a bias to move higher.

Note:- levels will be confirmed after another Week of trading (5-days)

As the Weekly timeframe won't move into September until next Friday's close.

Aussie Index (SPI) 22nd August Weekly

SPI Futures

As per previous report, once the Yearly 50% level was reached my view was that the Australian market would pullback.

The confirming pattern was Friday's break of support and change of cycle, but unless price is trading below the Weekly 50% level, the Australian Market can consolidate around these highs.

Any further weakness in the Australian market will be dependant on US markets, as the S&P will reach the same level next week :- Yearly 50% level 1038.

The previous Weekly report has my view on the market in much more detail.

Aussie Index (SPI) 15th August Weekly

SPI Futures

SPI Completes the 3rd Quarter move into the Yearly 50% level @ 4455.

That was my entire 3rd Quarter UP move play, which occurred much quicker than I wanted it to.

My preferred play was the reversal down from August highs @ 4313 and trade longs once again off Monthly support into these highs based on another 2 month higher high pattern.

This now completes the 3rd quarter move, and I won’t have a view until this month ends or even the next quarter begins.

Exact same pattern in 2003 stalled at this precise level and reversed down into trailing support levels and then continued higher in the following Quarter.

If it follows the same pattern, then the next UP move into the market is more likely to align with the start of the 4th Quarter.

Financial Index

As pointed out a while ago, the UP trend in the market were going to be lead by financial Stocks.

3rd Quarter 'thrust' pattern into Yearly 50% level has completed.

Any further UP moves would need to align with the 4th Quarter 50% level.

Set-up A:- continues up from the 4th quarter 50% level and into the highs, which aligns with the Yearly 2010 highs.

If that happens then price can push back down into the Yearly 50% level in 2010 and consolidates for a number of Quarters during next year and move into a long term sideway pattern until the 2nd half of 2010.

However, for me to BUY into banks right now, I would actually need to see the Index come all the way back down into the 50% level in this Quarter and where the 'Thrust' pattern began. (Set-up B)

Set-up B:- finds support, which could then lead to Set-up A occurring, or it might even struggle for the rest of the 4th Quarter if it can’t get back above the 4th Quarter 50% level.

If that happens then price action is going to be dependant on the 4th Quarter 50% level, because price might end up moving sideways until the end of the year and 2010 begins.

If that's the case, then next trend will then be based on the Yearly 50% level for 2010.

Set-up C:- continues up from the Yearly 2010 50% level and back towards the 2010 highs, but could remain range bound between the highs and 50% level over a number of Quarters until the 2nd half of 2010.

Set-up D set-up…

Opens near the 2010 Yearly 50% level and sells down quickly over a number of months into the lows once again, and then swings back above the Yearly 50% level in 2010 in the 2nd half of the year.

If that happens then banks will continue higher over the next 2-3 years into a long term UP trend

Basically, the 4th quarter 50% level is going to set-up my the next BUY strategy and i'll wait until then, or unless SET-UP B plays out.

Aussie Index (SPI) 8th August Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

July high breakout and expectation price would continue with the break and extend into the new monthly highs in August:- Dilernia Principle.

The SPI wouldn't sell off this week once it hit the highs, but there could have been a reason because US markets (DOW S&P) had to complete their August highs, which they did on Friday.

I'm now looking for a reversal pattern from next week's higher open back down towards the July breakout, with the first target the Weekly 50% level.

I'm still bullish in the market, but I would like to see market pullback over a few weeks to retest the breakout and verify it's valid.

If the breakout is valid, then the SPI should push up into new highs later in the 3rd Quarter & early 4th Quarter.

The first sign of the reversal will be price trading below the 5-day 50% level, but won't be confirmed until there is a 5-day low breakout of the range.

However, I'm not expecting the SPI to drop like a 'thud', I’m expecting the markets to zig-zag their way back down, mainly within 5-day pattern rotations.

Based on monthly high resistance levels which are valid and are very reliable, along with a higher Weekly open, the only conclusion I can come up with is a reversal down before it goes up later in the 3rd Quarter.

Don't short trade above 4313 next week....

Later this month and a number of stocks are reporting which can easily push the market higher and complete the move into 4400+ earlier than I hope for.

Aussie Index (SPI) 1st August Weekly

SPI Monthly

3rd Quarter thrust pattern towards 4400.

Based on Market dynamics the move towards 4400+ might take until September to reach.

At this stage the trading range in August are the highs and the Support the 50% levels.

SPI Weekly

If the SPI moves up into early August towards the August highs, then my view is for price to 'stall', with a potential move down into Support levels and then complete the move towards 4400 in the following month.

However, my view is to start the new week and new month with a short-term 2-day pullback within the 5-day pattern...



SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Lasts week's view was for Monday to continue high because of the 5-day breakout from the previous Friday.

After a 2-day reversal into the 5-day 50% level, it set-up up a rally towards the highs on Thursday and a continuation on Friday into' precise highs @ 4215.

Based on this pattern, I'm looking for a short-term 2-day pull back early next week, but with the view of higher prices in August.

Aussie Index (SPI) 25th July Weekly

SPI Monthly

The SPI has rallied and completed the 'precise' top in July @ 4120

We have seen the past 3 months have the same patterns, and the SPI has moved back down into a rotating pattern, as it moves UP towards 4400 in 2009

Each reversal pattern has also started from a higher Weekly open, and we begin the trading week with a Higher Weekly open next week.

However, even though we have the exact same pattern now as previously, we have to optimise the pattern to each individual Quarter. And this Quarter we have a 'Thrust' pattern that can continue UP as part of the larger trend.....

And follow a 2x monthly wave pattern UP into August, which is coming into 'Reporting' season

SPI Weekly

It's a simple pattern next week:- if the SPI reverses down then the first reversal Target is the Weekly 50% level @ 3958.

If the SPI continues up next week, then it is towards 4200+ and will hit 4400 in August:- 2 x Monthly wave pattern upwards in the 3rd quarter.

It makes it hard to think it will continue UP if there hasn't been a higher Weekly close above 4120, and the trading week will start from a higher Weekly open.

SPI 5-day pattern

As pointed out in the daily report on Friday, I wasn't expecting too much downside because of the Thursday high Break.

Regardless of the levels in the higher timeframes, the larger timeframe patterns need to be optimised using 5-day pattern recognition techniques;- Dilernia Principles.

Whilst daily patterns and intra-day trading are optimsied using support & resistance along with 'Spiral points' & range trading

And on Monday price should continue UP towards Monday's highs:- 4115-'4130'

normally that will push up 42-44 points.

This is the pattern that we need to see happen if the SPI is going to reverse down....

The SPI can't spend too much time above 4130 on Monday

However, it's not what Monday does, but where Tuesday 'opens'

If Monday stalls around 4115-4130...

Then Tuesday needs to open below the 5-day 50% level @ 4065, which will set-up a move down into the 5-day lows, and hopefully continue down towards the Weekly 50% levels:- higher Weekly open reversal pattern down from Monthly resistance

Otherwise and higher move on Monday could open higher on Tuesday (if US markets move upwards) , and anyone shorting above 4130 will be putting themselves at Risk, as a 3rd Quarter Thurst pattern will breakout and continue UP in August.

Aussie Index (SPI) 18th July Weekly

SPI Monthly

Ever since the March lows and subsequent rally into the June highs @ 4088, there was an expectation that the market would rotate back down into the July 50% level and then continue towards 4400 in the 3rd quarter.

That larger trend reversal was based upon price trading above July’s 50% level, and last week that wasn’t the case, so the UP move was open to risk of following a 2-month wave pattern downward.

However, based on the ‘fake’ break and this week’s reversal back above the July 50% level, there is now the view that I’ve had for a number months now : -primary trend reversal towards 4400.

There are July highs @ 4067, which can resist price…

But based on a 3rd quarter ‘thrust’ pattern from the 50% level, 4067 can breakout and continue to move higher into August highs.



SPI Weekly

I mentioned that to become bullish on the BUY side the SPI had to be trading back above 3906, which occurred this week. However, the Daily close above the Monthly 50% level along with US markets closing above their 5-day highs..

The continuation upwards was already in motion, which has been my view for a number of months now.

Next Week:- trend and support levels are the Weekly 50% level, with the expectation price is heading upwards.

Aussie Index (SPI) 11th July Weekly

SPI Monthly

As per the previous Report, the next move in the market was based on the direction price took in relation to the 3rd Quarter 50% levels.

With last week closing the 2nd Quarter below the 3rd quarter 50% level any UP trend was open to Risk.

Whenever price crosses over the Monthly 50% level I factor in a 2-month wave pattern following the Monthly ranges. We had this pattern play out on the recen UP move from March lows and the 2nd Quarter....

And as per 'Dilernia Principles' and the model, I'm now factoring in a 2-month wave pattern down into August.

In July we have the Monthly support levels @ 3584, which may or may not support price because of the larger trends pushing the market down.

However, if 3584 does support price in July, I'm still factoring in a 2nd monthly down move in August at this stage.


SPI Weekly

I'm looking for a continuation down into the Weekly and July lows next week.

The 3-cycle will be the trend guide @ 3763

If price can't close above 3763 and breakout of the 5-day high, then the SPI should continue down into the lows.

If there is a 5-day high breakout, then price is moving back towards the July 50% level and Weekly 50% level:- resistance.

Aussie Index (SPI) 4th July Weekly

SPI Monthly

"I've been harping on for a couple of months that the SPI is going to go higher in the 3rd quarter towards 4400... based on current price action and trading around the 3rd quarter 50%, there is a potential Thrust pattern in play...

Thrust pattern:- is a trend originating from the Monthly 50% levels in the new Quarter.

However, we first have to deal with next week's higher Weekly open (Expectation of a 2-3 day down move) , and it might take another 5-days of trading until next week closes to verify any continuation upwards.....

Previous Weekly Report

Based on Friday's close and next Week's open (below the 3rd Quarter 50% level), that UP move in the 3rd Quarter is now open to RISK of dropping down into July's lows and continuing down into August lows 2x Monthly wave pattern in lower lows.

And that will depend a lot on US markets and the trend they take...


http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

SPI Futures Weekly

Last Week's early sell pattern was helped by US market JOBS data, and at this stage...

The Weekly 50% level and July's 50% level should be used as resistance for a continuation downward.

The only way for the Australian Market to continue higher, is if US markets actually move UP in the 3rd Quarter...

And our market follows helped by Financials....

At this stage I wouldn't be buying into stocks until there is at least some consolidation above 3907.

Because whilst price is below the 3-Quarter 50% level there is a potential to revisit the recent lows in March:- 'Secondary trend' is now back in a 'sell' pattern bear trend.

Aussie Index (SPI) 27 June Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly


As per last Week's report:- early price action was #1 : Weekly 50% level becomes another resistance zone sending the SPI down once again.


However, my first target @ 3705 didn't reach, as this level was part of a view of a 2-day reversal back towards the Weekly 50% level @ 3891.

That reversal pattern back towards the Weekly 50% level played out, and now with 3 days to go until the 3rd Quarter, it sets up a potential 3rd Quarter move towards 4400.

However, being a higher Weekly open and trading below Weekly 50% level, it's a bit hard to get get excited just yet.

Normally a higher weekly open trading around resistance would continue down for the first 2 days, which aligns with the start of the 3rd Quarter.

SPI Monthly....

I've been harping on for a couple of months that the SPI is going to go higher in the 3rd quarter towards 4400...

I didn't know where the SPI would be at the close of the 2nd Quarter, but based on current price action and trading around the 3rd quarter 50%, there is a potential Thrust pattern in play...

Thrust pattern:- is a trend originating from the Monthly 50% levels in the new Quarter.

However, we first have to deal with next week's higher Weekly open, and it might take another 5-days of trading until next week closes to verify any continuation upwards.

But we will get an idea about any trend direction by price trading either side of the Weekly 50% level, confirmed with a 5-day breakout range.

Australian CASH Market (XJO)

Looking at the XJO, we can see why the SPI didn't drop down more, and the 3rd Quarter 50% level is simply going to be defined by July 50% level, confirmed after another 5-days of trading.

If Price is trading below the 3rd Quarter 50% levels, then any UP trend continuing is open to Risk....

And the market could just continue to move in another 2-3 month sideways pattern, with a downward bias.

Aussie Index (SPI) 20 June Weekly

"SPI Futures reached JUNE highs this week, and the expectation is that these highs should form resistance levels and begin to see a pullback into the Weekly 50% level next week"

Previous Weekly Report


SPI monthly

This week saw the Australian market follow the same pattern as the previous 3-months, reversing down from the monthly highs defined by the Dilernia Model.

The exact same pattern that occurred in the previous month of MAY, is occurring in the current month of June.

Next week:- The Weekly 50% level drops and this is the new trend guide for the next 5-days of trading, and Monday should clearly give traders an idea about the direction.

There are 3 patterns that can play out.....

1. Weekly 50% level becomes another resistance zone sending the SPI down once again.

2. Monday moves up and closes higher, resulting in a bottom to top close:- higher Friday close.

3. the next 5-days consolidates either side of the Weekly 50% level and continues to do so until the end of the month and the 3rd Quarter begins....

Number 3 was what happened the previous Month.

We can currently see where the 3rd Quarter 50% level is, which will be determined in 2 weeks time at the close of the month, and if Number 3 occurs again the next trend begins in the 3rd Quarter and continues higher towards the Yearly 50% level.

Whilst price is trading above the 3rd Quarter 50% level I have a view of higher prices towards 4400.

However, 2 weeks is a long time in the markets, and if Prices continue to drop (#1), then the 3rd Quarter scenario changes, as it doesn't take much for the SPI to be trading below the 3rd Quarter 50% level.

Aussie Index (SPI) 13 June Weekly

SPI Monthly

SPI Futures reached JUNE highs this week, and the expectation is that these highs should form resistance levels and begin to see a pullback into the Weekly 50% level next week.

I still have a view that the Market is heading up towards 4400 in the 3rd Quarter, but that will be defined by the 50% levels next month.

June contract expiry this week and we move into September contracts, which are currently running at a discount in September suggesting a pullback.

If the SPI begins to trade above 4088, then it's part of a breakout pattern and push higher in the 3rd Quarter.

Aussie Index (SPI) 6 June Weekly

SPI Monthly

Expectation of higher prices in early JUNE towards the June highs @ 4042 nearly played out precisely with Friday's highs.

I still have a view of higher prices in the 3rd quarter towards 4400, but that view is completely dependant on how the SPI reacts with these JUNE highs and then the 3rd Quarter 50% level.

So far we have seen the SPI continue higher following the Monthly trends upwards. As each month ends resistance disappears and the market continues higher.

However, all good trends still rise up from 50% level support levels, and in the 2nd Quarter price hasn't hit those levels.

All good trends can also rise up from the previous monthly lows (Monthly pivot low), which hasn't reached also.

Therefore I still need to see some resistance around these Monthly highs.

XJO Monthly (CASH MARKET)

Looking at the XJO and the JUNE highs, along with a higher Weekly open next week I would look for price to come back into the mid point around around 3796.

The strength of the trend in the 3rd Quarter it going to be dependant on how price reacts to this level



SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

This week has seen a lot of text book patterns play out:-

1. MAY high resistance moves and shifts higher into June
2. Trend begins from the monthly balance point and breaks Monday's highs:- 5-day breakout
3. Breakout of Monday and expectation of higher prices into Tuesday.
4 Tuesday's 5-days highs random resistance
5. Tuesday's high breakout @ 3965 on Wednesday and continuation upwards into Wednesday's highs @ 4021
6. Thursday:- 5-day high reversal and move down into the 5-day 50% level.

7. Friday:- sadly 4042 didn't reach

And if the SPI is going go down, then it needs to be trading below Support next week

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Aussie Index (SPI) 30th MAY Weekly

Australian Futures SPI Monthly

Expectation of higher prices in 2009, as part of a rotation towards the yearly 50% level, which is around 4400.

As long as prices remain above the monthly 50% levels, then the bias is to continue the swing from March lows towards the Yearly 50% level, whilst trading the lesser trends:- Weekly & Daily.

MAY high resistance has ended and there is now an expectation of higher moves into June...

SPI Weekly

I would have preferred that MAY pushed lower into the Monthly 50% levels from the highs, as this would have provided a greater swing upwards.

Instead US markets continue to move higher, not allowing the Australian market to drop that little bit extra.

In conclusion:- The bias is to continue higher, and over the past 2 months the SPI has opened above the monthly balance point which has pushed prices higher.

At the start of June the SPI will be opening right on 3847 , which is the June balance point.

Therefore that level is going to define the medium term trend in early June.

Above 3847 and price is pushing up once again.

Below 3847 along with a higher Weekly open could eventually see a short-term down move into Monthly support, which is what I'm looking for.

I prefer a continuation upwards to retest support sometime, rather than clinging to the Monthly highs each month.