Price has reversed down from the February highs (double monthly highs) and found support (February 50% level)
This would normally see the 3rd month continue up towards the following Quarterly highs in April, as part of a larger trend towards 5093, as previously mentioned
In the short-term, there is a gap at 4807, which matches critical levels in the SPI."
Last Week's report
SPI Monthly and Weekly
The risk of the upward trend began to falter by Tuesday once price started trading below 4807, and it was then confirmed with Thursday's breakout of the 3-week lows @ 4772, and the extension down into the MARCH lows.
Those lows @ 4590 were filled during Sycom trading.
My view from next week, is that the market is going to swing back towards 4730 to 4753 and retest the breakout.
Around 4753 is a potential resistance zone, that can send the market back downward into the lows once again
I would normally associate the current price action with another retest of the monthly lows in April, thus forming a double bottom before the market has the potential to move upwards.
If the S&P remains above it's support levels, then there's a potential rise upwards during the 2nd Quarter starting in April.
If the S&P fails support levels, then there is a larger reversal pattern taking place.... (read Below)
SPI Primary & Secondary cycles, along with the Monthly Range
The SPI is now following Set-up B or C.
The Price action in February was following Set-up A;- a bounce off the monthly 50% level, and whilst above 4807 the bias was to follow the trend towards the 2nd Quarter highs @ 5093-96.
That changed this week, with the market failing to remain above 4807, followed by the breakout of the Weekly lows @ 4772, and the continuation down towards the March lows
There are now two larger reversal patterns playing out…
#B) Has reached support and now rises upwards in the short-term, but then forms a double monthly low pattern in April.
The next upward trend aligns with the 2nd quarterly 50% level (Yellow)
#C) Support fails in the S&P 500 and the SPI continues to trend down towards 4442
Read US Index Report
