However, any rise upwards will be seen as temporary, because trends that are rejected down from the 3rd month 50% level (June 50% level) will often extend towards lower lows into the following quarter.
Previous Weekly report
SPI Weekly cyclesJune lows supporting the Market, and there is the possibility that the Market rises upwards next week, if above 4487
However, the June 50% level rejection pattern is trying to push the market towards the July lows in the 3rd Quarter, as shown in the following chart.
Primary and Monthly cyclesThe Primary level @ 4442 is supporting the market, and may continue to do so...
However, as mentioned a few weeks ago, the rejection pattern is trying to push the trend down into the BUY zones in the monthly cycles.
Those BUY zones are my levels that I believe will provide the most robust support levels for the market to rise upwards from.
That upward rise is back towards the 3rd Quarterly 50% level (Yellow)
Once that happens, I feel that the market will once again move into another large 3-month sideways pattern. I'd be very surprised to see the market spend too much time above that level, even though it could go as high as 4804.
There are two things that could go wrong with my analysis....
#1) the trend doesn't continue down into BUY zones, but actually rises upwards from next week and moves up into the 3rd quarterly 50% level, and as high @ 4804...
if that happens, then I expect the same consolidation pattern for the rest of the 3rd quarter.
#2) support levels fail, and the market continues down towards 4157 by the end of 2011.
