those levels will determine whether the trend moves upwards….
or is once again rejected back down from the monthly 50% level towards the June lows.
Previous Weekly report
SPI monthly and Weekly
The market rose upwards until the start of June, and was then rejected down from the monthly 50% level, as the S&P 500 reversed down on the same day (read US market Report)
The critical support level in the short-term was 4581 Weekly lows, however, the support level was based on whether the S&P 500 would hold support @ 1301. And as we know that didn’t happen on Friday.
For those who have read my book, markets can often come under selling pressure in the 3rd month of the Quarter if price is rejected from the monthly 50% level, and extend towards the following quarterly lows. And as we can see, this is what is happening at the moment.
Therefore the trend bias is to continue down into the June lows @ 4462, and then possibly extend towards the July lows
There was a similar pattern in 2010, when markets reversed down from the April highs and continued towards the lower Quarterly support levels (Yellow)
In 2010, the lows in the market aligned precisely with the 3rd Quarter support (yellow) in July.
And if history repeats, then that's the level we should focus on in July, with the expectation that there will be Short-term counter-trend moves upwards until then.
