Aussie Index (SPI) 1stJanuary 2011 Weekly

"In the short-term the trend remains stable with an upwards bias, however we need to keep an eye on the SPI move down into the Weekly lows @ 4692 over the next 2-weeks...

As this pattern would provide the next 'support' level for the trend to continue
towards those first Quarter highs in 2011"

Previous Weekly report.

SPI monthly and Weekly

Last day of the Primary cycle in 2010 produces a ‘flash crash’ down into the Weekly lows @ 4692.

This completes the short-term reversal pattern, and I would normally associate this pattern as the market moving down into support and then continuing higher at the start of the following Quarter:- January’s highs.

However, anything below the January 50% level @ 4703 is open to risk…



SPI Yearly

If we follow the Primary trend for 2011, our market over the next 12 months should continue up towards 5093 and could go as high as 5285....

helped by this week's price action (Weekly support), and a move towards the January highs @ 4844.

However, if I'm wrong and price is trading below 4703...

Then the critical support level in 2011 is 4442

Aussie Index (SPI) 25th DEC 2010 Weekly

SPI Futures:- Dilernia Model

Trend bias is to continue towards the December highs and then up towards the January highs and the matching 1st Quarterly highs in 2011.

In the short-term the trend remains stable with an upwards bias, however we need to keep an eye on the possible SPI move down into the Weekly lows @ 4692 over the next 2-weeks...

As this pattern would provide the next 'support' level for the trend to continue towards those first Quarter highs in 2011.

Merry Christmas to you all

Aussie Index (SPI) 18th DEC 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly (Dilernia Model)

Trend remains stable and looks to be moving upwards, as long as it remains above 4760 next week.

A 2nd week reversal pattern didn't eventuate, but we would have known that, if Thursday was trading below support and was Friday closing below 4689.

If 4760 doesn't hold next week, I just think it will be a short term consolidating pattern ( Weekly 50% level @ 4690) until the end of the year, as market activity grinds into the holiday season.

Aussie Index (SPI) 11th DEC 2010 Weekly

My view is to continue towards the December highs over the next 5-days...using the December 50% level as a trend guide @ 4689.

Previous Weekly report

SPI futures

The market has continued into a higher weekly close, and with a trend that looks the be heading into higher highs into the first Quarter of 2011.

However, as mentioned over 3 weeks ago...

The only pattern that will put pressure on the SPI is if the 2nd Week in December reverses down from the highs and closes below the 4689...


Next week begins the 2nd Week of December, and if next Friday is trading below 4689 then the rest of December can come under further selling pressure.

Otherwise if long stay long...but be aware.



Note:- Please refer to pages 110 & 111 of my new book, as it describes
in detail these exact same patterns that we have seen over the
past number of weeks

Aussie Index (SPI) 4th Dec 2010 Weekly

“Once support has held the up trend begins to take hold in the last week of the current month (next week) and continues towards higher highs in the first Quarter of 2011.”

Previous Weekly report

SPI futures:- Monthly and Weekly

We have seen the last week of the previous month reverse upwards from support and then breakout of the 5-day highs on the first day of December.

Based on the current price action my view is to continue towards the December highs over the next 5-days...using the December 50% level as a trend guide @ 4689.

The current Weekly 50% level @ 4696 is supporting the market, but Thursday's breakout of the 5-day highs @ 4635 could see a short-term stall pattern early next week(trailing support levels)

3-day cycle lows are now all the way back down @ 4562, which can often result in a waiting game of a couple of days until the 3-day lows catch up with the current trend before the market continues upwards.


I also mentioned a potential bearish pattern appearing in December:- higher step formation.

If it does appear in the 2nd week of December, then the rotation pattern is for the market to move down towards the 2011 50% level @ 4433 (20th November).

The only pattern that I think will put pressure on the SPI is if the next 5-days moves upwards into a higher Friday close, and then the 'following week' reverses down (2nd Week) and closes below the 4689...

This can often put pressure on the market until the end of the month.

Note:- next week is the first week of Dec and the 2nd week begins from the 13th Dec

Most of the price action during this Quarter and future probable price action is clearly described in my new book.... "Market Trading Market Timing"

Aussie Index (SPI) 27th November 2010 Weekly

Aus"The Trend bias is to continue down into support levels @ 4571-82.

If the market is going to go higher then these levels need to be verified by next week's close and then continue higher. This usually occurs in the last week of the current month and then pushes upwards in the first week of December from the new December Monthly 50% levels.

What we also notice is that December has a higher step formation @ 4668

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Futures


The market has moved down into the Support levels and have held for the past 4 days.

As mentioned a couple of weeks ago, once support has held the up trend begins to take hold in the last week of the current month (next week) and continues towards higher highs in the first Quarter of 2011.

However, there are two patterns that can change that view...

#1 the higher step formation in the forward month can result in a change in trend identification

#2 there's currently a Dilernia Drop in the S&P, which can continue to put short-term pressure on US markets until the end of the month (Read US Report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 20th November 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

This quarter has seen the market follow a double monthly high pattern into November's highs and a reversal down, which is often the case as the market comes back looking for support.

The Trend bias is to continue down into support levels once again @ 4571-82.

If the market is going to go higher then these levels need to be verified by next week's  close and then continue higher in December.

This usually occurs in the last week of the current month and then pushes upwards in the first week of December from the new  December Monthly 50% levels into a higher weekly close.

What we also notice is that December has a higher step formation @ 4668

This can often end up a bearish pattern (please read current book regarding forward bearish patterns)




                                                                       SPI Primary Cycle

We can see the market consolidating between the two Primary cycle 50% levels in 2010.

These levels will shift in 2011, with resistance disappearing @ 4964 and a potential upward trend towards 5383.

Major support levels in 2011 will be around 4433

Current Price action in the 4th Quarter has been trading above the 4th Quarter 50% level (Yellow), and recently there has been a change in the 3-period cycle (white), which now becomes support and a trend guide for the rest of this year and going into 2011

This gives more reason of the trend moving upwards over the next couple of weeks, as described in the previous chart

However, I also mentioned a potential bearish pattern appearing in December:- higher step formation.

If it does appear in the 2nd week of December, then the rotation pattern is for the market to move down towards the 2011 50% level @ 4433

Aussie Index (SPI) 13th November 2010 Weekly

In the short-term, the market is either going to continue to push up towards next week's highs @ 4876 and then 4900

Or ...

we look for a minor corrective move back to retest the breakout & 4724-52

Previous Weekly report

                                                      Australian Market (Index futures SPI)

Last week began with price trading above the November highs and with the target @ 4900 in the 4th Quarter:- resistance

However, when Tuesday opened  below the November highs @ 4791 then the trend changed with a short-term reversal pattern down into 4752

And once 4752 couldn't hold, the trend bias was to move from a higher weekly open and continue to reverse down from the November highs into a lower Weekly close.

At this stage the market looks to be once again moving into a consolidation pattern within the weekly levels.

And higher timeframe support @ 4582

Aussie Index (SPI) 6th November 2010 Weekly

SPI Futures

Market continues towards the 4th Quarter target @ 4900

Helped by the S&P 500 moving higher on the news that the Fed is about to print $600 Billion to stimulate the economy.

In the short-term, the market is either going to continue to push up towards next week's highs @ 4876 and then 4900

Or

we look for a minor corrective move back to retest the breakout & 4724-52

Note:- 4900 is the target for this Quarter.

This level may resist the trend for a number of weeks, or it may not (December)

What that means is, the 'THRUST PATTERN' from the Secondary cycle @ 4582 can last 2 quarters and continue into higher highs by 2011.

If we follow the primary cycle, that can be as high as 5200.

for the market to move towards 5200, banking stocks need to find support in November and then begin a gradual rise from the start of December.

Aussie Index (SPI) 29th October 2010 Weekly

Trend guide during this Quarter is to continue towards 4900....

But for next week, it looks like more consolidation between the Weekly levels.

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Futures

Australian market continues to consolidate during October.

Upside target remains 4900 in the 4th Quarter.

Ideal pattern is for the market to test support levels in November using a lower Weekly close

and then continue upwards over the next 2-months towards 4900.

Stock traders on  the 'long side' don't want see price trading below those support levels during November, as the upside trend will be open to risk.

Aussie Index (SPI) 22nd October 2010 Weekly

"based on the current price action in global index markets, there is a possibility that the rest of October moves into a sideways pattern until the start of November using 4582 as a trend guide and Support"

Previous Weekly report

SPI monthly and Weekly

This week has seen another 5-days of sideways price action, as the Australian market continues to consolidate above 4582, whilst the S&P 500 continues to consolidate below 1182.

Trend guide during this Quarter is to continue towards 4900....

But for next week, it looks like more consolidation between the Weekly levels.

Aussie Index (SPI) 15th October 2010 Weekly

Australian Index (SPI futures)

Upside target in the 4th Quarter remain 4900, however as mentioned in last week's report, our market will begin to lose steam once the S&P reaches 1182.

based on the current price action in global index markets, there is a possbility that the rest of October moves into a sideways pattern until the start of November using 4582 as a trend guide and Support.

If that happens then this will lend to more gains later in the 4th Quarter.

Note:- resource stocks have moved upwards during the 4th quarter whilst banking stocks have remained flat.

We might see a change from next week and a rotation pattern occuring in both (banks higher), whilst Resouce stocks take a breather

Aussie Index (SPI) 9th October 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Shift in market dynamics from the 3rd quarter into the 4th Quarter and a new trend pushing up from the 50% levels @ 4582 after forming resistance in September

Upside target is 4900 in the 4th quarter...

However, there is resistance around the October highs, and the current price action doesn't lend to the market breaking out of the October highs

My concern is not whether the Australian market continues up towards 4900, because fundamentally the market is sound.

My concern lies with the S&P 500 around 1182 (Read US market Report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 2nd October 2010 Weekly

Resistance 4672-76

If the market is below 4658, then I'll look for a 'short' trade set-up from Wednesday onwards, as part of a rotation back down"

Previous Weekly report
 

SPI Monthly and Weekly

SPI continued to move higher last week until Wednesday's 'sell' pattern appeared around the Weekly highs @ 4724

The break of 4658 was then confirmed on Thursday, as part of an expected rotation down into higher timeframe support levels.

As my Weekly reports have been saying for a number of week's now, 4672-76 is a major resistance zone, which has now shifted in the 4th quarter (less resistance)

My  ideal pattern would be to see a rotation back down into the October 50% level:- form support and then HOOK back above 4582...for a continuation up towards 4900 over the next 2-3 months during the 4th Quarter.

If the SPI can make it's way down towards 4514 and then reverse using a lower weekly open...then the first target would be 4900, as I'm not expecting the October highs to 'stall' price.

If the SPI closes above the October highs at the end of the month, then my view is that the trend is going higher until the start of 2011.

Note:- All long-term analysis and expectations must be optimised using lesser timeframe patterns  (Weekly) to help validate the view

If the SPI doesn't move down into 4514 but continues to move upwards using the Weekly 50% level as a support level, then the 4th Quarter will more likely zig-zag within the monthly levels (October highs resistance) with an upwards bias towards 4900

Aussie Index (SPI) 25th September 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Expectation that SPI would hit resistance @ 4672-76 has played out.

The reversal pattern down into the monthly 50% levels hasn't played out, as 4602 continues to support the market this week

My expectation is for the trend to continue upwards in the 4th quarter.

However, the ideal pattern would be to see a rotation back down into the October 50% level:- form support and then HOOK back above 4584.

For a continuation up towards 4895 over the next 2-3 months during the 4th Quarter, as long as the market remains above the 4th Quarter 50% level

Next Week:- trend guide is 4658 depending on the price action in the US

if the market is below 4658, then I'll look for a 'short' trade set-up from Wednesday onwards, as part of a rotation back down

Note:- US markets have rallied on Friday putting the SPI above those resistance levels (4672-76) for Monday's open

My preferred pattern is not to see the Market continue to rally next week  towards 4895, but that could be the case based on the price action in US markets.

Aussie Index (SPI) 18th September 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

The Aussie market has reached 4672 in the 3rd quarter and has hit major resistance levels.

My view is that the 4th Quarter can continue higher towards 4895...

However, in the mean time there are two possible patterns that may play out depending on the price action in the S&P 500.

#1) Continues back down into the September 50% level:- support @ 4443

#2) drifts lower over the next 2-weeks and then aligns with the 4th Quarter 50% level for a push towards higher highs @ 4895

Next Week:- My view is that the S&P 500 is going to start the week with a continuation of a 2-day reversal pattern, which is going to put pressure on the Aussie market.

As mentioned in last week's report:- a reversal pattern in our market will be helped by higher timeframe resistance levels and then verified by a 5-day low breakout

The key level will be 4593 from Wednesday onwards.

Aussie Index (SPI) 11th September 2010 Weekly

Market dynamics suggests higher highs next week, and there are a number of resistance levels that will come into play around the September and Weekly highs.

Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Last week saw the market reverse down into trailing support levels @ 4526 and then continue up towards the September highs:- 4628

The upside target during the 3rd quarter is 4672, which may or may not reach, as the current price action the looks to be losing some momentum around these monthly highs.

Any weakness during the next 2 weeks would see the SPI back down into the September 50% levels once again @ 4443,  verified by a 5-day breakout.

The trend direction is going to be helped or hindered by the trend direction in the S&P 500, (READ US Index Weekly Report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 4th September 2010 Weekly

Australian Market is well supported around the Yearly 50% level @ 4295

Based on the current pattern along with long set-ups pointed out for BHP and banking stocks (the Stock Report) the Australian market needs to move above the September 50% level for a swing towards 4672 (#B)

I'm confident in the price action for the Australian market to continue higher, however I'm not confident in the price action in the S&P 500

Previous Weekly report

SPI Weekly

The shift in market dynamics from August into September help provide the Thrust pattern upwards this week and should continue towards 4672 during the 3rd quarter in September.

Even though the Australian looked supported I still needed to see the S&P follow that same pattern to help validate my view (read US report).

Market dynamics suggests higher highs next week, and there are a number of resistance levels that will come into play around the September and Weekly highs.

Aussie Index (SPI) 28th August 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Australian Market is well supported around the Yearly 50% level @ 4295

Based on the current pattern along with long set-ups pointed out for BHP and banking stocks (the Stock Report)  the Australian market needs to move above the September 50% level for a swing towards 4672 (#B)

This month has seen a double weekly low pattern (this week's lows) and price now is rotating back into the monthly 50% levels for September

I'm confident in the price action for the Australian market to continue higher, however I'm not confident in the price action in the S&P 500, and I've mentioned this for a number of weeks now, that the market is being held back by the S&P 500.

If that continues to play out in the S&P 500 (read US market Report), then the next long set-ups in the Australian will align with the S&P 500 hitting 970

Aussie Index (SPI) 21st August 2010

"Fundamentally and technically the Australian market looks in much better shape than the US, with the S&P likely to come under more pressure.

The longer term charts suggest more weakness whilst below the August 50% levels.

However, 3rd quarter consolidation can see more 5-day patterns that remain range bound between the Weekly levels"

Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Australian market consolidates between the Weekly levels during the past 5-days whilst the S&P 500 continues to move down, as the market remains below the August 50% levels.

The price action in the US is an anchor on the Aussie Market.

Next week's range once again will be determined by support levels @ 4383, and likely swing back towards the Weekly 50% levels.

What happens in the S&P 500 is going to effect the Australian market, and at this stage it looks like more consolidation until September.

Aussie Index (SPI) 14th August 2010

"There is a possible 2-day UP move beginning next week, however, if the 3rd day drops back below 4512 then August could move into a consolidation phase:- rotation with a downward bias towards the Weekly lows"....

Previous Weekly report


SPI Monthly and Weekly

Last week began with an UP move, but by the 2nd day price had closed below 4512, and the 3rd sold down into the Weekly lows @ 4330.

Currently the market is in a 3rd Quarter consolidation pattern and trading around the Yearly 50% level @ 4295.

Fundamentally and technically the Australian market looks in much better shapethan the US, with the S&P likely to come under more pressure.

The longer term charts suggest more weakness whilst below the August 50% levels.

However, 3rd quarter consolidation can see more 5-day patterns than remain range bound between the Weekly levels.

Next Week's Trend guide @ 4373

Support 4287

Aussie Index (SPI) 7th August 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

The SPI is currently trading around minor resistance levels in August:- 4565.

With the current price action in the S&P on Friday, I would have an expectation that the trend will try and continue towards next week's highs @ 4606 and then 4672.

As long as price remains above 4512.

There is a possible 2-day UP move beginning next week, however, if the 3rd day drops back below 4512 then August could move into a consolidation phase:- rotation with a downward bias towards the Weekly lows:- 3rd quarter consolidation

At this stage the trend remains with an upwards bias.

Aussie Index (SPI) 31st July 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

July 50% level @ 4487 has stalled the Australian market from rising.

The next week begins August with the critical trend line being 4467.

Based on the current patterns in the S&P on friday I would have the view that next week will begin with a 2-day up move and likely to continue towards 4565.

At stage the 3rd quarter looks like it's consolidating with an upward bias towards 4672 in September, as price follows the Weekly patterns in an orderly manner.

As long as price remains above the trailing Weekly 50% level and 4467 the trend bias is up

Aussie Index (SPI) 24th July 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Australian market remains consolidating above the Yearly 50% level @ 4296, and now following the Weekly range upwards....

And probably continue higher next week

At this stage Global markets look to be consolidating for the 3rd Quarter.

SPI Daily 17th July 2010 Weekly

Australian Index (SPI Futures)

The Aussie market is currently consolidating around the Yearly 50% level @ 4295, and has been for the past 8 weeks.

I don't think the Market is going to begin a new trend upwards, whilst the S&P 500 is trying to move downwards (Read US market Report).

Next Week will depend on the price action that occurs in the S&P 500....

Either the SPI continues to trend down towards the July lows...

or remains range bound between the Weekly levels

Aussie Index (SPI) 10th July 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly

This week has seen the Australian Market continue to be supported around the Yearly 50% level @ 4295 and swing back towards the Monthly 50% levels in July.

"I'm expecting a swing back towards the monthly 50% levels, but then the most likely pattern would be an entire Quarter that consolidates in a sideways pattern until the last month (September) of the Quarter".....Previous Report

Sadly, the precise Swing set-up didn't play out, as I was expecting the market to move slightly lower towards the July lows (support) before the up move began.

At this stage I still have the view that this Quarter will continue to consolidate between the monthly lows and as high as 4672.


SPI Weekly

Last' week view was a swing into the Weekly 50% level @ 4332 and a sell pattern down into the July lows (2 week pattern)

This began to play out until the S&P had closed above it's own Weekly 50% level confirmed with a 5-day high breakout, and the SPI followed the trend upwards.

Next Week:- trend guide the Weekly 50% levels.

If Above the market is pushing upwards and following the monthly swing.

If below then it is part of the consolidation during this Quarter.

Aussie Index (SPI) 3rd July 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

last month rejection of the 3-month 50% level will often drive down into the following monthly lows in the new Quarter, which is the July lows.

There is a 3-week low breakout from last week @ 4278 that should extend down into next week lows.

July's lows are seen as support, but it will need to be verified with a breakout of the 5-day highs. or matching support with US markets reaching their Yearly 50% levels (read US Index reports)

This is important because often 3rd Quarter lows don't hold during bear markets and we are also trading below the Yearly 50% level @ 4296.

Therefore anything below the July lows is seen as an extension down into the Yearly lows around 3400 and a quick bounce back upwards.

If July's lows hold support, then I'm expecting a swing back towards the 3-month 50% levels, but as mentioned previously, the most likely pattern would be then an entire Quarter that consolidates in a sideways pattern until the last month of the Quarter.

Aussie Index (SPI) 26th June 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Last week's reversal pattern from the Weekly highs and back below the June 50% level @ 4519 normally follows the move down into the July lows. (3rd Quarter lows).

Next Week's 50% levels will be the trend guides.

The 3rd Quarter lows can support the Aussie market and then the trend moves into a 3-month sideways pattern (large consolidation pattern) between the 3-month lows and the 3-month 50% levels until October. (4th Quarter)

However, it will depend on the S&P 500 and whether a 3rd Quarter move continues down into the Yearly 50% level @ 969.

Aussie Index (SPI) 19th June 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Yearly 50% level Support @ 4295 and now this week has closed above the 3-Quarterly 50% level @ 4522 and has remained supported without selling down.

Based on the current patterns and also the price action in the S&P 500 (Read US Index report)....

The Australian market looks like following the Weekly ranges upwards next week and into July (2-weeks)

The market could continue to consolidate around the June 50% level for the next 2-weeks until the start of the 3-Quarter and a new 3-month cycle (new trading set-ups)...

But at this stage I would treat the Aussie market as following the Weekly ranges upwards, as long as it remains above 4519.

Note:- looking at the large cap stocks (BHP, RIO, and Banking stocks), there are no bullish patterns appearing as yet or 'buy' set-ups.

The Yearly 50% levels in the XJO and Miners are supporting the market along.

BUY set-ups may appear in the 3rd Quarter. (Read Stock Report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 12th June 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Yearly 50% level @ 4296 continues to support the SPI and the market is trading back around the June 50% levels.

There are no leads from US markets that the trend is going to continue higher, as the 3-Week highs can send the S&P back down, or it keep in consolidating during June

At this stage I'm treating the Aussie market as consolidating in June (no Weekly close above the monthly 50% levels).

Last Week started from a lower Weekly open and a swing back towards the June 50% level

Next week starts from a higher Weekly open and trading around resistance levels.

Trend guide @ 4522.

Aussie Index (SPI) 5th June 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

As pointed out in the previous Weekly reports, the price action below the MAY lows was bearish and there is a possible continuation down in June.

Whether it gets towards the June lows isn't a high probability pattern, as the Yearly 50% level @ 4295 can continue support the Australian Market.

I would have preferred to have seen Monday sell off from the June 50% level, than Monday opening lower, as the market can swing back upwards ( short-term counter-trend move)

The down trend is will be dictated by the price action in the S&P, and even though I'm bearish, the Australian market can continue to consolidate and swing around in the early part of June.

SPI Yearly and 3-Quarterly

We can see the Australian market sell from the 3-year 50% level and now trading around the single Yearly 50% level in 2010 @ 4296

This either going to have the Australian market move into a larger consolidating pattern until 2011, or it's going to continue down into the 2010 Yearly lows @ 3394 to 3061.

That will only happen if the S&P 500 continues down towards 969.

What do we notice about the SPI and the Yearly timeframe?

There is a breakout of the 2008 yearly lows but a failure to complete the move down into the 2009 lows.

The Australian Market was dragged upwards by the S&P 500, as those markets provided the Yearly swing low patterns in March 2009.

Therefore I have a feeling that the Yearly low pattern still needs to complete in 2010.

Therefore if I'm right, then around 3394 is the time to be moving back into the market and hold long term. It might dip lower to around 3061, but it won't spend much time below 3394.

We can verify using lesser timeframe (monthly) to time the market better, but I wouldn't be sweating on it.

I might be wrong and it doesn't get that low, but again it's too early to be moving into stocks just yet.

June lows might provide support in the early part of the month, but not so much in the last week of the 3rd month in the Quarter.

Aussie Index (SPI) 29th MAY 2010 Weekly

Weekly report written 15th August 2009....

"3d Quarter 'thrust' pattern into the 2009 Yearly 50% level has completed from the March lows.

Any further UP moves would need to align with the 4th Quarter 50% level,and continue up from the 4th quarter 50% level and into the highs, which aligns with the Yearly 2010 highs.

If that happens then price can push back down into the Yearly 50% level in 2010 and consolidate for a number of Quarters during next year and move into a long term sideways pattern until the 2nd half of 2010"




SPI Monthly and Weekly

9 months later and this pattern has played out precisely in the Australian market.

The Yearly 50% level in 2010 is supporting the market and we can now moved into a multi-sideways consolidation pattern.

In the short-term there is a breakout of the MAY lows, therefore there is an expectation that price will try and move downward in June using the 50% level as a trend guide next week.

Note:- Weekly timeframe remains in MAY until the end of next week.

However, what happens if the S&P 500 follows the same pattern and moves down into the 2010 50% level, that is 100 points lower or 1000 points in the DOW.

Some of the biggest sell offs occur in the last month of the Quarter as price begins the month at the 50% level.

Even though the Aussie market looks like it can consolidate, the worrying pattern is the S&P 500 and the current patterns that are occuring right at this moment.

What happens if the S&P follows last year's forecast...

That can put the Aussie market down around 3400 (Yearly lows) and probably the bottom of the cycle lows for 2010.

In conclusion:- It's too early to get comfortable with current support levels

Aussie Index (SPI) 21st MAY 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

After reading the US market report there is an expectation that US markets are moving up towards their June 50% levels.

If that is the case this is going to push the Australian Market upwards, however based on price trading below the 3-Quarterly 50% level this could see the SPI struggle to close above 4522 by the end of MAY.

Based on current patterns the trend guide next week is 4356 using the daily timeframe (sycom closed 4358).

If the SPI is trading below @ 4356 then the Aussie market is consolidating until the end of the month, as price remains below the MAY lows and the 3-quarterly 50% level.

If the SPI is trading below 4522 by the end of the month, then there is the expectation of a move lower in June:- break and extend pattern in the single month timeframe (red channels)

In conclusion:- the market remains in a breakout with a downward bias and any higher moves next week are seen a minor swing patterns and consolidation until June.

Aussie Index (SPI) 15th MAY 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

MAY lows supporting the market, whilst the Weekly 50% level in the 24 hour market is supporting the market after the expected 2-day reversal on Thursday into a lower Friday close

As per previous Weekly report there is an expectation that price is heading towards the June lows, however the MAY lows and 3-Quarterly 50% level can continue to support the market until June.

Which means price can consolidate and move towards the June 50% level but then push down towards the June lows and the Yearly 50% level @ 4295.

Next Week's 50% level and lower Weekly open is the trend guide which can see the Aussie market move into a 2-3-day UP swing, as long as it remains above Weekly 50% level.

Australian Market 8th MAY 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Last week I was bullish on our market based on the MAY 50% levels and continuing towards the highs, however my concern were US markets as they didn't have the same patterns.

Once the daily closed below the Weekly lows and MAY 50% level the bias was to continue back down into the MAY lows.

Currently the MAY lows are supporting the market, but after reading the US report, there is an expectation that the trend is moving towards the June lows in the following month, which aligns with the Yearly 50% level @ 4295.

If US markets start with a 3-day UP move next week, then the SPI will be back into the MAY 50% level, and from next Thursday the down trend can resume.

Aussie Index (SPI) 1st MAY 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

SPI completes the reversal pattern from the April highs towards the monthly 50% levels in MAY.

As per previous Weekly report....

http://austindex.blogspot.com/2010/04/aussie-index-spi-3-april-2010-weekly.html

Therefore the market is trading around support and with the expectation that the SPI is moving towards the 2nd Quarter highs @ 5156-5170:-

higher high 2-month wave pattern into JUNE

Confirming pattern is a breakout of the 5-day highs and trading above the Weekly 50% level.

My only concern about this pattern failing is the levels where US markets are currently trading....

I'd be much more confident if US markets were also trading around their monthly 50% levels. (read US report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 24 April 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

The Aussie market has continued down but the US markets have failed to follow with the double top patterns and have continued higher.

3-week lows support and Friday 5-day low support should see next week start with a 2-day UP move:- random length.

It's a bit too early to tell what will happen after a 2-day UP move, as price isn't rising up from the monthly support levels in MAY.

However, we could see a move back towards the April highs by the end of next week and continue towards the 2nd Quarter highs in MAY.

Aussie Index (SPI) 17 April 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

SPI trading around resistance and as per previous reports, for the SPI to continue towards 5170 the most robust pattern is to revisit the 3-month 50% levels.

This is based on a 2 timeframe wave using the quarterly timeframe:- the 3-Quarterly 50% level in the first Quarter and continues towards the highs in the following quarter.

And along the way following another text book pattern using a lesser timeframe & 2-monthly wave pattern, in this case the monthly 50% during this Quarter and another 2 month wave pattern upwards.


The reversal pattern from these highs and the expectation of a down move needed to wait until the DOW had completed it's break and extend patterns in April @ 11082, and because of this I'm looking for the trend to continue down.

And Orderly Text book pattern would be moving into the MAY 50% level and then heading higher.

However, it's not about the Aussie market, it's about US markets.

If US markets follow #3 (Read US report), then the Aussie market could follow another double monthly low pattern, but this time using the single monthly lows not the 3-month lows.

As we can see the first monthly low is @ 4686

Aussie Index (SPI) 10 April 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

2nd Quarter target 5170+

Weekly high resistance should continue towards next week's highs and April's highs.

I still subscribe to the view that the next best set-up towards 5170 should occur from the monthly 50% levels, which may take 4-6 weeks to unwind.

Up trend currently helped by US markets break and extend patterns from March highs into April's highs (Read US report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 3 April 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly

Start of the 2nd Quarter and expectation during this 3-month cycle is that the trend will continue towards 5170+

However, the SPI is still trading below the 3-year 50% level @ 4969 and in my opinion can continue to form a resistance zone until price retests the 3-month 50% levels.

In the first Quarter we have had a double monthly low pattern in February and a move towards the high in March:- resistance

The red channels are the single monthly range. We can see a breakout of the monthly highs @ 4767, which in theory should continue to push slightly higher in April but then rotate back down towards the monthly 50% levels.

There are two possible patterns during the 2nd Quarter...

A:- retests the 50% levels and continues towards the Quarterly highs @ 5170+

B:- finds support but continues to consolidate until MAY

Why?

The most robust UP trends often coincide with both the 3-month 50% levels and also the single monthly low (red), which is currently @ 4686.

That means that if April 50% level supports the market the monthly low will shift higher in MAY (B) and provide a better set-up to breakout of the 3-yearly 50% level and continue towards 5170+


These are a few of principles that I subscribe to...

1. all trends originate from 50% levels and push outward
2. breakout of the timeframe will continue until the next timeframe is reached:- break & extend
3. trends follow wave patterns of 2:- month & Quarter

In the above example we can see price trading above the March 3-month 50% level and heading into the March highs.

However the important pattern was not only the trend moving up from the March 50% level, but at the same time breaking out of a timeframe high:- single month

The breakout was the single month high of February:- RED.

That means there are two princples occuring at the same time....

1. Trend pushing outward from the 50% level.
2. break and extend pattern into April's highs.

The current resistance in March disappears and around April’s levels the risk increases, because the short term breakout pattern will complete, but it doesn’t mean the price will reverse down into a new 'bear-trend'

It’s simply a completion pattern:- break & extend pattern during a Quarterly cycle from one month into the next.

The 2nd Quarter Target remains @5170

Because we are treating each Quarter as its own cycle, for those wanting to Buy back into the market would need to be patient and use the 50% levels as support once again during the next cycle.

Because price is has tested the 3-Quarterly 50% level in February the expectation remains that the Trend is following a 2 Quarterly pattern towards the highs in the 2nd Quarter (5170)

Aussie Index (SPI) 27 March 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly

Quarter coming into an end, with upside targets in the 2nd Quarter @ 5100+

SPI trading around the March highs with the expectation that price is going to continue higher in the 2nd Quarter.

This up move into the March highs completes a 2-month wave pattern during this Quarterly cycle, and if trading on the BUY side (stocks) we want to look for the next 'long' set-up during the next Quarterly cycle.

The most ideal set-up to capture any longs in the market would be a rotation back towards the April 50% level.

There isn't a breakout of the 3-month highs, but there is a breakout of the single monthly highs @ 4727 (red).

Because there is a breakout I would treat the market as a break & extend pattern during the single month, which means it's more likely to push upwards in early April before it rotates back downward.



SPI Weekly and 5-day range (24 hour market)

The medium term trend is defined by the Weekly 50% level, so it won't take much for the market to change with price trading below.

Trend guide on Monday @ 4930, and there is still the possibility that next week begins with a 2-day down day based on the Friday 5-day highs resistance.

If the trend is going to continue higher it can remain above the Weekly 50% level and continue up until April begins:- first Quarter target 5107

If price does drops below the Weekly 50% level, then the 3-week lows is the support zone for the next leg upwards.

Aussie Index (SPI) 20 March 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Based on market dynamics and where my view of US markets are going into 2010 (read US report).... I favour the SPI (Aussie Market) still following SET-UP B.

SET-UP B:- retests the 3-month 50% level in the 2nd quarter and then continues up towards 5190

In the Short-term with the price acton in the DOW, I would favour a rotation back towards the Weekly 50% level, but the SPI could remain above the Weekly 50% level until the end of the Quarter. (March)

Aussie Index (SPI) 13 March 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly & Weekly

At this stage the expectation is that the Australian market is heading higher.

We can see the Weekly highs match the March highs, and if everything follows a 'text-book' pattern the market should continue towards higher highs in the 2nd Quarter.

However, things might look like they are going higher, but the price action in the S&P 500 differs.

Read US report

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/2010/03/s-e-mini-13th-march-2010-weekly.html

SPI Daily 6th March 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Last week's 2-day UP move started the ball rolling with a move above the March 50% level, and helped by the S&P heading into the February highs @ 1138.

Expectation price is heading higher in the next Quarter towards the 2nd Quarter highs.

The most robust pattern for any higher moves would have to be the March highs stalling price, and then moving higher in the 2nd Quarter using the 3-month 50% levels.

In the short-term I would have to treat the SPI supported above 4727-4759 for the rest of this Quarter, but capped under the March highs.

Aussie Index (SPI) 27 FEB 2010 Weekly

SPI Quarterly and Monthly

The view remains that the SPI is heading towards the 2nd Quarter highs.

However, for the rest of this Quarter price can still remain below the Quarter levels @ 4741-59

There is nothing on the horizon that suggest short-term weakness in the markets, and the price action in US markets are bullish.

Now until the 2nd Quarter is a long time, but at this stage the expectation is to continue higher, starting with a 2-day UP move next week.

Financials look like they want to go higher, but the Energy stocks look like they are going to keep the breaks on, as the Energy index at the moment continues to look bearish. (read Stock Report)