Australian Index Report 26th April 2008

Weekly Report...

XJO CASH market

CASH market trading around the Fair Value, and when you compared the Aussie market to the US markets, we can see the difference in how far the Australian Market fell compared to US markets.

US markets are trading near their Yearly balance points for 2008, whilst the XJO would have to travel all the way back to 6213.

At this stage my view is to only move towards 5870 in this Quarter and then we can judge the market from July onwards.


SPI Futures

Expected move towards 5870+ in this Quarter, and if the market continues UP towards the MAY highs, then we will be heading towards the Yearly balance point.

If the SPI continues higher next week closing near it's Friday highs again, the MAY highs will push UP even further:- meaning that a move towards 6213+, can occur.



SPI Daily and 5-day pattern

Last weeks view was to move towards the Weekly highs, where the market stalled and moved into a 5-day pattern consolidation phase.

Weekly range moves higher next week to 5747, expected move, and looking for move of the same price action within the 5-day ranges.

At this stage my best set-up for trading a higher move next month, would be to see a lower Weekly close early in MAY, and then use the lower Weekly open (5-day lows) to trade up, as per the C set-up in the Weekly chart.

Australian Index Report 19th April 2008

SPI Weekly Futures

2 weeks ago the SPI closed above the Weekly cycles, this help confirm the current lows in 2008 have been set, and the potential of a much great rotation upwards in the Next Quarterly timeframe towards 5800+

The lows in March only had and expectation that price would rotate upwards into the April 50% levels and stall.

However, once the Weekly timeframe closed above 5464 confirming the change of Weekly cycle, the expectation is now pushed higher, with the potential to move towards 5800+, and into the Monthly highs of May-Jun.e

So far B set-up is playing with the expected move towards 5870....

However I favour a B&C set-up, where April continues to consolidate, but then pushes higher from the central zones of MAY and thrusts higher towards May's highs.

"C & D set-up:- Continues down into Weekly lows, and then swing upwards back into the Weekly 50% level, and as high as the April 50% level 5615

.This is because of the Lower Weekly open and swing back upwards into a 3-day counter-trend move with the 'new' 5-day trading pattern." Last week's Report

Last Week moved in a 3-day counter trend rally back upwards into 5615, and then a 2-day reversal down after the change of the 3-day cycle.

Next Week expectation that the SPI will move towards 5702 once again, but ideally I would like to see a push back down into the Weekly 50% levels before heading higher....

For daily trading set-ups and high probability 5-day patterns subscribe to the the Trader Premium

http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html

Australian Index Weekly 12th April 2008

XJO Quarterly and Yearly charts

2nd phase bear markets remain whilst price is trading below the Yearly 50% level, with a potential to move back down into 5170 and then a double bottom.

As mentioned in last week's report....

" Australian market has rotated back into the Yearly 50% level and stalled, and it also matches the Breakout of the December Quarterly lows, therefore there is a lot of resistance around this week's highs.

When you read the Stock Report on Banking stocks, there doesn't leave much room for further UPside moves in the next Quarter in the Australian Market.

Even though the Weekly cycle changed to BUY with this Week's Rally, that leaves a large gap to the cycle lows and a rotation back down.

After last week's rally it just looks like a major consolidation pattern will play out for the next 3-months.

SPI Monthly Chart

Plays to keep an eye out in April. (Weekly Report 5th April)

B:- Reverses down early next week and re-tests the 3-week cycle high breakout @ 5464 before finding support....

C:- Reverses down early next Week and continues down into the 3-week lows....

At this stage the B set-up has completed, and has continued towards a C set-up, with the potential of further weakness, depending on price action next week.


SPI Daily Chart

This Week was about trading down into the Weekly 50% level, as it followed the B set-up.

There was always a potential of a lower Weekly close on Friday as it moves back towards the Weekly lows 5312, but it wasn't what I was hoping for.

For those reading the Daily reports in the Trader Premium, all week the bias was to 'short' trade down.

However, I was hoping for a move upwards on Friday, back into the April 50% level ,and then a continued sell off early next Week down towards the Weekly lows @ 5312

This would have provided a much more robust sell pattern than just a continuation down into the Weekly lows because of US markets heading lower on Friday.


Next week those Weekly lows will be reached, but it's not going to provide a robust 'short' pattern to trade down, therefore.....

Next Week there are two plays:-

C Set-up: - Continues down into the Weekly lows, breaks and heads down into 5170 and then into the April lows

C & D set-up:- Continues down into Weekly lows, and then swing upwards back into the Weekly 50% level, and as high as the April 50% level.

This is because of the Lower Weekly open and swing back upwards into a 3-day counter-trend move with the 'new' 5-day trading pattern.


The best trading set-ups for any moves will always be found in the The Trader Premium because of the Dilernia model using 5-day pattern recognition techniques.

Australian Index Report 5th April 2008

XJO Cash Weekly charts

Australian market has rotated back into the Yearly 50% level and stalled, and it also matches the Breakout of the December Quarterly lows, therefore there is a lot of resistance around this week's highs.

When you read the Stock Report on Banking stocks, there doesn't leave much room for further UPside moves in the next Quarter in the Australian Market.

Even though the Weekly cycle changed to BUY with this Week's Rally, that leaves a large gap to the cycle lows and a rotation back down.

After last week's rally it just looks like a major consolidation pattern will play out for the next 3-months.

SPI Weekly Futures

March timeframe completed and we can see the April 50% level has been set....

3 plays to keep an eye out in April.

A. Price continues upwards next week into the Quarterly 50% level @ 5857 before reversing back down

B. Reverses down early next week and re-tests the 3-week cycle high breakout @ 5464 before finding support and then moving upwards into 5857

C. Reverses down early next Week and continues down into the 3-week lows, resulting in a 3-month sideways pattern until July.

SPI Daily charts

Last Week's view was for the market to continue higher, ideally from the Weekly 50% level.

The market continued higher, but the ideal set-up didn't play out as most of the move occurred overnight because of the US Rally.

In fact the rally was much greater than just the Weekly highs @ 5521.

Next week 5615 is the level, above and it continues higher into the Weekly highs @ 5809...

But I favour an early move down back to the 3-day lows, and a retest of the Weekly highs @ 5521 from last week.

After that move I have a random outcome set-up:- Bounce off the 3-day lows and it heads higher, or a rotation back into the Weekly 50% level and a 'lower' Weekly close by Friday, which is the B set-up as it comes down to test the 3-week cycle high breakout @ 5464.

In conclusion:- favouring Down into the 3-day lows next week.

Please Read the Daily report in the Trader Premium using the 5-day levels and pattern recognition techniques.