Aussie Index (SPI) 25th April 09 Weekly

SPI Monthly

Australian market remains above the 50% level, and whilst price remains above that level the market bias is to continue higher.

However, I'm still factoring a retest of the 50% levels (Support) before any lasting UP move can occur.

Next Week is the last week of the April, therefore where it closes is important for MAY's trading.

SPI Weekly

I've been bearish on the Australian Market since the APril highs were reached @ 3852.

But the market won't continue down if US markets continue to push higher, as they aren't any where near resistance levels. (Read US Weekly Report)

This week saw lower prices into Weekly support, but most of the UP move resulted from the higher Friday close in US markets.

We can see the Shift in the April resistance levels to higher prices in MAY.

I'd be surprised to see the market move towards those MAY highs without testing the Monthly 50% levels first, but it can happen as price can follow a 2x Monthly pattern since the cross-over of the March 50% levels.

Next Week:- resistance @ 3792.

SPI 5-day pattern

As per Previous report I'm Bearish on the SPI with the expectation of price coming back down into the Monthly 50% level......

and it started on Monday, with the Sell down from the 5-day 50% level @ 3783 and breaking support.

This pattern leads to a push down into the 5-day lows on Tuesday:- 2-day selll.

The rest of the Week Support held within the 5-day pattern, as support crossed over on Thursday, and then pushed the SPI higher on Friday in late trading.


Next Week:-

I'm still bearish on the SPI, and my interest on any down moves next week will begin with 3792.

However, once again any down move won't be confirmed unless there is another breakout on the downside with price trading below 3696.

"Rising Weekly ranges but shorter in length and coming into the last week of

this Month.....especially if there is any break of the 5-day lows...."

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    • Posted by

    Aussie Index (SPI) 18th April 09 Weekly

    SPI Futures Monthly

    SPI continues higher in April, as it travels towards the April highs.

    The trend is defined by the 50% level, and whilst above 3552 the bias is to continue higher.

    In the Monthly chart my April highs are further up @ 3916....



    SPI Weekly

    However, my target since the March lows and the double monthly pattern has played out with Friday's highs and a precise top @ 3852.

    My expectation now is, price is looking to move down towards the Monthly 50% levels again.

    But US markets aren't near their own Monthly highs, and the SPI could still continue UP towards 3916 in April.

    Therefore, I'm looking for the SPI to begin to move down towards the Monthly 50% level but things need to be verified along the way.

    First stage is price trading below the Weekly 50% level, along with a 5-day low breakout.

    Until that happens it's still too early to tell whether Friday's highs was the top in the move UP from the lows March.

    Dilernia Principle:- 2X Monthly timeframe pattern from March lows completes into April's Highs


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    • Posted by

    Aussie Index (SPI) 11th April 09 Weekly


    SPI Monthly and Weekly

    Last Week's view was a higher Weekly open to come back and test the Weekly 50% level.

    This played out, and the SPI will probably move towards the April highs next Week

    At this stage my view is for the SPI to remain range bound between the April highs and the 50% level in this Quarter.

    I can't see price much higher than the April highs, as this is valid resistance this Quarter....

    But I can see prices coming back down to retest the 50% levels.

    I'll get a better idea on the next high probability set-up after the next 5-days of trading and the following Week begins coming into the last Week of the Month


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    • Posted by

    Aussie Index (SPI) 4th April 09 Weekly

    SPI Monthly and Weekly

    Expectation this week would rise upwards in early April after a 3-day pullback to continue the UP move from March lows.

    Whilst price is above the higher timeframe 50% levels then the trend remains up, and around the April highs would complete the move:- double monthly pattern Dilernia Principle @ 3845

    The first target on the SPI this month was 3768, and if the SPI is going to continue higher then my view is the most robust pattern would be to come back and re-test the Weekly 50% level @ 3611.

    Around upper resistance levels and a higher Weekly open next week normally favours a pullback into support.


    SPI Quarterly and Yearly

    As we can see the price action in the higher timeframes.

    There is a breakout of the 2008 lows, so therefore the view is for price to make its way down towards 2780.

    But not whilst it's above the 50% level.....

    Therefore my view is based on what I'm looking at now......

    Any potential higher moves would come late in the 2nd quarter from June onwards....

    below the 50% level and it's down into the Yearly lows.

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