Aussie Index (SPI) 30th MAY Weekly

Australian Futures SPI Monthly

Expectation of higher prices in 2009, as part of a rotation towards the yearly 50% level, which is around 4400.

As long as prices remain above the monthly 50% levels, then the bias is to continue the swing from March lows towards the Yearly 50% level, whilst trading the lesser trends:- Weekly & Daily.

MAY high resistance has ended and there is now an expectation of higher moves into June...

SPI Weekly

I would have preferred that MAY pushed lower into the Monthly 50% levels from the highs, as this would have provided a greater swing upwards.


Instead US markets continue to move higher, not allowing the Australian market to drop that little bit extra.


In conclusion:- The bias is to continue higher, and over the past 2 months the SPI has opened above the monthly balance point which has pushed prices higher.

At the start of June the SPI will be opening right on 3847 , which is the June balance point.

Therefore that level is going to define the medium term trend in early June.


Above 3847 and price is pushing up once again.


Below 3847 along with a higher Weekly open could eventually see a short-term down move into Monthly support, which is what I'm looking for.

I prefer a continuation upwards to retest support sometime, rather than clinging to the Monthly highs each month.
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Aussie Index (SPI) 23 MAY Weekly

SPI Monthly

MAY high Resistance and continue to look for a pullback into the Monthly 50% levels.

I have an expectation of higher prices in the 3rd Quarter, as long as the market remains above the 50% levels.

With 1 week to go until the end of the month, my ideal pattern would be to see the monthly timeframe in MAY close around the 50% levels.

If that's the case then the ideal pattern would be a lower monthly open around support and then have a 4 week trending pattern upwards.

If Support breaks and closes below, then adjust to the market.

The highest probability of a level failing is the last week of the Month, so it's imperative
that MAY doesn't close below support.




SPI Weekly


If there is a lower Day move on Monday but a higher Tuesday close above 3789, this could lead in a Daily HOOK pattern:- HOOK patterns normally lead to higher Friday closes.


Previous Weekly Report



The SPI played the HOOK pattern until Friday, when price opened back under 3789.

With the SPI trading below the Weekly 50% level @ 3800....

Then the bias is to push down towards the Monthly 50% levels.

For those who day-trade the SPI, we can all see the lack of volatility during the day, so the smart thing to do is work on trading 21-40 points moves and take the cash, because the SPI has struggled to move more than 40-44 points each day.


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    • Posted by

    Aussie Index (SPI) 16 MAY Weekly

    Australian Index XJO:- Monthly

    Expectation of a reversal down from MAY highs, which coincided with the US markets reaching their first resistance levels around the same levels since the MARCH lows.

    I want to see the SPI continue down into the 50% levels.

    If the SPI can hold support in MAY:- higher close above, then there is an expectation of a 3rd Quarter UP move towards 4400 lead by financials.

    A close below those support levels, and then I have the view that a revisit of recent lows is on the cards.


    SPI Weekly

    Expectation of a reversal down was confirmed with the MAY highs, then the break of the Weekly 50% level @ 3856 and the first target reached @ 3740.


    Once price has reached 3740 on Thursday I was looking for Friday to move up into the Weekly 50% level once again, as that would have provided another ideal 'short' trade pattern down early next week:- Sell resistance and a higher Daily open



    That didn't happen but the Weekly 50% level next week @ 3789 is simply going to be the trend guide.


    The interesting thing about this pattern is....

    A down trend should just sell off from this level next week and continue down into the MAY 50% levels @ 3589.


    If there is a lower Day move on Monday but a higher Tuesday close above 3789, this could lead in a Daily HOOK pattern.


    HOOK patterns normally lead to higher Friday closes.

    So we end up with a consolidating Weekly timeframe:- Lower open and higher close


    This might match my view of the price action in the US on Friday....

    US markets should have sold off more on Friday (read US Weekly Report)
    Posted by

    Aussie Index (SPI) 9th MAY Weekly



    Australian Cash Market XJO Monthly

    The Australian markets continues to cling to the Monthly highs, whilst US markets push higher in MAY.

    Finally the US markets have reached their MAY highs, and 'hopefully' things begin to move back down into Support.

    Why Hopefully?

    Because there is a larger Primary Trend reversal pattern towards the Yearly 50% levels, in the case of the Aussie market 4400+

    Therefore my ideal pattern would be for price to reverse down into Support Monthly 50% levels and then look for a 3rd Quarter higher move towards 4400.


    I would hate to think that markets continue to climb towards the Yearly 50% levels, clinging to each Monthly high as they dynamically move higher each month without providing a retest of support.





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    • Posted by

    Aussie Index (SPI) 1st MAY Weekly

    AUSTRALIAN INDEX XJO

    All global Index markets followed the same pattern of rising up from the MARCH lows in 2009.

    Once that low was in my view was for a swing back into the April highs.

    The Australian Market hit a precise top in April and stalled: resistance.

    Once that high was reached I became bearish on the Australian Market

    The reason why I have the view is because all major lows reach their Yearly lows in the following year to verify the bottom has been set and the market can continue higher.

    That's what happened in the US, their Yearly lows were reached and price has continued higher.

    For the market to continue down into the Yearly lows, the close of this month had to close below the April 50% level. This would have resutled in another push down into the Yearly lows, which was the pattern in 2003.

    Even though I was bearish and the market hasn't moved above the April highs, I still wanted to see where April close.

    Because April has closed higher, my view now changes to a 2-month sideways pattern between the Monthly 50% levels and the Monthly highs.

    If the market remains stable above those Monthly 50% levels this Quarter, then there is a potential 3rd Quarter higher move back towards the Yearly 50% level.

    But I still want to see price come back down and test the MAY 50% levels and verify support.


    SPI Weekly

    April highs reached and sideways pattern.

    April resistance has disappeared and has pushed dynamically higher in MAY.

    Whilst price is above 3740 the trend bias is to continue higher

    Below and it's back into the MAY 50% levels.

    At this stage my view is a 2-month sideways pattern between Monthly highs and 50% levels and then look for any 3rd Quarter set-ups.

    For day traders, we all simply look to short resistance and trade support in the 5-day pattern.


    If those levels fail in the 5-day pattern, we simply adjust to the market the next day.

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