Aussie Index (SPI) 27 June Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly


As per last Week's report:- early price action was #1 : Weekly 50% level becomes another resistance zone sending the SPI down once again.


However, my first target @ 3705 didn't reach, as this level was part of a view of a 2-day reversal back towards the Weekly 50% level @ 3891.

That reversal pattern back towards the Weekly 50% level played out, and now with 3 days to go until the 3rd Quarter, it sets up a potential 3rd Quarter move towards 4400.

However, being a higher Weekly open and trading below Weekly 50% level, it's a bit hard to get get excited just yet.

Normally a higher weekly open trading around resistance would continue down for the first 2 days, which aligns with the start of the 3rd Quarter.

SPI Monthly....

I've been harping on for a couple of months that the SPI is going to go higher in the 3rd quarter towards 4400...

I didn't know where the SPI would be at the close of the 2nd Quarter, but based on current price action and trading around the 3rd quarter 50%, there is a potential Thrust pattern in play...

Thrust pattern:- is a trend originating from the Monthly 50% levels in the new Quarter.

However, we first have to deal with next week's higher Weekly open, and it might take another 5-days of trading until next week closes to verify any continuation upwards.

But we will get an idea about any trend direction by price trading either side of the Weekly 50% level, confirmed with a 5-day breakout range.

Australian CASH Market (XJO)

Looking at the XJO, we can see why the SPI didn't drop down more, and the 3rd Quarter 50% level is simply going to be defined by July 50% level, confirmed after another 5-days of trading.

If Price is trading below the 3rd Quarter 50% levels, then any UP trend continuing is open to Risk....

And the market could just continue to move in another 2-3 month sideways pattern, with a downward bias.

Aussie Index (SPI) 20 June Weekly

"SPI Futures reached JUNE highs this week, and the expectation is that these highs should form resistance levels and begin to see a pullback into the Weekly 50% level next week"

Previous Weekly Report


SPI monthly

This week saw the Australian market follow the same pattern as the previous 3-months, reversing down from the monthly highs defined by the Dilernia Model.

The exact same pattern that occurred in the previous month of MAY, is occurring in the current month of June.

Next week:- The Weekly 50% level drops and this is the new trend guide for the next 5-days of trading, and Monday should clearly give traders an idea about the direction.

There are 3 patterns that can play out.....

1. Weekly 50% level becomes another resistance zone sending the SPI down once again.

2. Monday moves up and closes higher, resulting in a bottom to top close:- higher Friday close.

3. the next 5-days consolidates either side of the Weekly 50% level and continues to do so until the end of the month and the 3rd Quarter begins....

Number 3 was what happened the previous Month.

We can currently see where the 3rd Quarter 50% level is, which will be determined in 2 weeks time at the close of the month, and if Number 3 occurs again the next trend begins in the 3rd Quarter and continues higher towards the Yearly 50% level.

Whilst price is trading above the 3rd Quarter 50% level I have a view of higher prices towards 4400.

However, 2 weeks is a long time in the markets, and if Prices continue to drop (#1), then the 3rd Quarter scenario changes, as it doesn't take much for the SPI to be trading below the 3rd Quarter 50% level.

Aussie Index (SPI) 13 June Weekly

SPI Monthly

SPI Futures reached JUNE highs this week, and the expectation is that these highs should form resistance levels and begin to see a pullback into the Weekly 50% level next week.

I still have a view that the Market is heading up towards 4400 in the 3rd Quarter, but that will be defined by the 50% levels next month.

June contract expiry this week and we move into September contracts, which are currently running at a discount in September suggesting a pullback.

If the SPI begins to trade above 4088, then it's part of a breakout pattern and push higher in the 3rd Quarter.

Aussie Index (SPI) 6 June Weekly

SPI Monthly

Expectation of higher prices in early JUNE towards the June highs @ 4042 nearly played out precisely with Friday's highs.

I still have a view of higher prices in the 3rd quarter towards 4400, but that view is completely dependant on how the SPI reacts with these JUNE highs and then the 3rd Quarter 50% level.

So far we have seen the SPI continue higher following the Monthly trends upwards. As each month ends resistance disappears and the market continues higher.

However, all good trends still rise up from 50% level support levels, and in the 2nd Quarter price hasn't hit those levels.

All good trends can also rise up from the previous monthly lows (Monthly pivot low), which hasn't reached also.

Therefore I still need to see some resistance around these Monthly highs.

XJO Monthly (CASH MARKET)

Looking at the XJO and the JUNE highs, along with a higher Weekly open next week I would look for price to come back into the mid point around around 3796.

The strength of the trend in the 3rd Quarter it going to be dependant on how price reacts to this level



SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

This week has seen a lot of text book patterns play out:-

1. MAY high resistance moves and shifts higher into June
2. Trend begins from the monthly balance point and breaks Monday's highs:- 5-day breakout
3. Breakout of Monday and expectation of higher prices into Tuesday.
4 Tuesday's 5-days highs random resistance
5. Tuesday's high breakout @ 3965 on Wednesday and continuation upwards into Wednesday's highs @ 4021
6. Thursday:- 5-day high reversal and move down into the 5-day 50% level.

7. Friday:- sadly 4042 didn't reach

And if the SPI is going go down, then it needs to be trading below Support next week

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