Aussie Index (SPI) 27 FEB 2010 Weekly

SPI Quarterly and Monthly

The view remains that the SPI is heading towards the 2nd Quarter highs.

However, for the rest of this Quarter price can still remain below the Quarter levels @ 4741-59

There is nothing on the horizon that suggest short-term weakness in the markets, and the price action in US markets are bullish.

Now until the 2nd Quarter is a long time, but at this stage the expectation is to continue higher, starting with a 2-day UP move next week.

Financials look like they want to go higher, but the Energy stocks look like they are going to keep the breaks on, as the Energy index at the moment continues to look bearish. (read Stock Report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 20 Feb 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Aussie market still trading below the monthly 50% levels, and the longer it remains below these levels during this quarter the more chance it's going to moving down in March.

In saying that...I think our market will end up around 4760 during February, simply because I believe US markets will continue higher during this month.

In the short-term there could be more resistance in the first couple of days, but thereafter it should continue upwards, if the S&P follows the Weekly dynamics.

Read US report

Aussie Index (SPI) 13 FEB 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly & Weekly

Support 3-Quarter 50% level and double monthly low pattern in February

This is a bullish set-up, and if US markets had the same pattern then our market would be moving back towards 4750 this Quarter.

4750 is the Quarterly balance point or the January 50% level.

However, we don't have the same patterns, and Friday's trading in the US didn't break resistance levels.

What that means is more consolidation between support and the 50% levels this month.

And what we need to keep an eye out for is how the market trades over the next 2-weeks coming into March.

The longer price consolidates the more likely March will push lower, especially as the 3-week highs catch up with the current price action.

In the short-term... I would think that the Weekly 50% level should see the SPI move back towards the February 50% levels.

Daily report out on Monday.

Read US reports

Aussie Index (SPI) 6 FEB 2010 Weekly

SPI Futures

Short-term counter-trend move up into the 50% levels in February and the rejection down into the February lows.

Overall target during the first Quarter is around 4300...

However, this might not happen as February's lows could end up supporting the market until March.

The key level in the SPI next week is 4463, and whether it follows another pattern as last week and rotates back towards the 50% levels

And that will depend on the price action in the S&P early next week.

Read US weekly Report