Aussie Index (SPI) 29th MAY 2010 Weekly

Weekly report written 15th August 2009....

"3d Quarter 'thrust' pattern into the 2009 Yearly 50% level has completed from the March lows.

Any further UP moves would need to align with the 4th Quarter 50% level,and continue up from the 4th quarter 50% level and into the highs, which aligns with the Yearly 2010 highs.

If that happens then price can push back down into the Yearly 50% level in 2010 and consolidate for a number of Quarters during next year and move into a long term sideways pattern until the 2nd half of 2010"




SPI Monthly and Weekly

9 months later and this pattern has played out precisely in the Australian market.

The Yearly 50% level in 2010 is supporting the market and we can now moved into a multi-sideways consolidation pattern.

In the short-term there is a breakout of the MAY lows, therefore there is an expectation that price will try and move downward in June using the 50% level as a trend guide next week.

Note:- Weekly timeframe remains in MAY until the end of next week.

However, what happens if the S&P 500 follows the same pattern and moves down into the 2010 50% level, that is 100 points lower or 1000 points in the DOW.

Some of the biggest sell offs occur in the last month of the Quarter as price begins the month at the 50% level.

Even though the Aussie market looks like it can consolidate, the worrying pattern is the S&P 500 and the current patterns that are occuring right at this moment.

What happens if the S&P follows last year's forecast...

That can put the Aussie market down around 3400 (Yearly lows) and probably the bottom of the cycle lows for 2010.

In conclusion:- It's too early to get comfortable with current support levels

Aussie Index (SPI) 21st MAY 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

After reading the US market report there is an expectation that US markets are moving up towards their June 50% levels.

If that is the case this is going to push the Australian Market upwards, however based on price trading below the 3-Quarterly 50% level this could see the SPI struggle to close above 4522 by the end of MAY.

Based on current patterns the trend guide next week is 4356 using the daily timeframe (sycom closed 4358).

If the SPI is trading below @ 4356 then the Aussie market is consolidating until the end of the month, as price remains below the MAY lows and the 3-quarterly 50% level.

If the SPI is trading below 4522 by the end of the month, then there is the expectation of a move lower in June:- break and extend pattern in the single month timeframe (red channels)

In conclusion:- the market remains in a breakout with a downward bias and any higher moves next week are seen a minor swing patterns and consolidation until June.

Aussie Index (SPI) 15th MAY 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

MAY lows supporting the market, whilst the Weekly 50% level in the 24 hour market is supporting the market after the expected 2-day reversal on Thursday into a lower Friday close

As per previous Weekly report there is an expectation that price is heading towards the June lows, however the MAY lows and 3-Quarterly 50% level can continue to support the market until June.

Which means price can consolidate and move towards the June 50% level but then push down towards the June lows and the Yearly 50% level @ 4295.

Next Week's 50% level and lower Weekly open is the trend guide which can see the Aussie market move into a 2-3-day UP swing, as long as it remains above Weekly 50% level.

Australian Market 8th MAY 2010 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Last week I was bullish on our market based on the MAY 50% levels and continuing towards the highs, however my concern were US markets as they didn't have the same patterns.

Once the daily closed below the Weekly lows and MAY 50% level the bias was to continue back down into the MAY lows.

Currently the MAY lows are supporting the market, but after reading the US report, there is an expectation that the trend is moving towards the June lows in the following month, which aligns with the Yearly 50% level @ 4295.

If US markets start with a 3-day UP move next week, then the SPI will be back into the MAY 50% level, and from next Thursday the down trend can resume.