Aussie Index (SPI) 31st July 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

July 50% level @ 4487 has stalled the Australian market from rising.

The next week begins August with the critical trend line being 4467.

Based on the current patterns in the S&P on friday I would have the view that next week will begin with a 2-day up move and likely to continue towards 4565.

At stage the 3rd quarter looks like it's consolidating with an upward bias towards 4672 in September, as price follows the Weekly patterns in an orderly manner.

As long as price remains above the trailing Weekly 50% level and 4467 the trend bias is up

Aussie Index (SPI) 24th July 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Australian market remains consolidating above the Yearly 50% level @ 4296, and now following the Weekly range upwards....

And probably continue higher next week

At this stage Global markets look to be consolidating for the 3rd Quarter.

SPI Daily 17th July 2010 Weekly

Australian Index (SPI Futures)

The Aussie market is currently consolidating around the Yearly 50% level @ 4295, and has been for the past 8 weeks.

I don't think the Market is going to begin a new trend upwards, whilst the S&P 500 is trying to move downwards (Read US market Report).

Next Week will depend on the price action that occurs in the S&P 500....

Either the SPI continues to trend down towards the July lows...

or remains range bound between the Weekly levels

Aussie Index (SPI) 10th July 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly

This week has seen the Australian Market continue to be supported around the Yearly 50% level @ 4295 and swing back towards the Monthly 50% levels in July.

"I'm expecting a swing back towards the monthly 50% levels, but then the most likely pattern would be an entire Quarter that consolidates in a sideways pattern until the last month (September) of the Quarter".....Previous Report

Sadly, the precise Swing set-up didn't play out, as I was expecting the market to move slightly lower towards the July lows (support) before the up move began.

At this stage I still have the view that this Quarter will continue to consolidate between the monthly lows and as high as 4672.


SPI Weekly

Last' week view was a swing into the Weekly 50% level @ 4332 and a sell pattern down into the July lows (2 week pattern)

This began to play out until the S&P had closed above it's own Weekly 50% level confirmed with a 5-day high breakout, and the SPI followed the trend upwards.

Next Week:- trend guide the Weekly 50% levels.

If Above the market is pushing upwards and following the monthly swing.

If below then it is part of the consolidation during this Quarter.

Aussie Index (SPI) 3rd July 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

last month rejection of the 3-month 50% level will often drive down into the following monthly lows in the new Quarter, which is the July lows.

There is a 3-week low breakout from last week @ 4278 that should extend down into next week lows.

July's lows are seen as support, but it will need to be verified with a breakout of the 5-day highs. or matching support with US markets reaching their Yearly 50% levels (read US Index reports)

This is important because often 3rd Quarter lows don't hold during bear markets and we are also trading below the Yearly 50% level @ 4296.

Therefore anything below the July lows is seen as an extension down into the Yearly lows around 3400 and a quick bounce back upwards.

If July's lows hold support, then I'm expecting a swing back towards the 3-month 50% levels, but as mentioned previously, the most likely pattern would be then an entire Quarter that consolidates in a sideways pattern until the last month of the Quarter.