Aussie Index (SPI) 29 January 2011 Weekly

My view is that the SPI will try and move upwards again:- 2-day rise from Friday's lows @ 4725

But any strength in the market can be easily offset if US markets reverse down next week

Previous Weekly report




SPI Monthly and Weekly

The Australian market began with a 2-day rally using the Weekly 50% level as support, however as noted in the previous weekly report.... it's the price action in the S&P 500 that's going to offset that stability based on US markets reversing down from their January highs "

As the S&P 500 reversed down on Friday, the SPI is back into critical support levels once again, but this time I'm not factoring in a 2-day rise early next week (less probability)

How the Australian market plays out over the next 2-weeks will be determine whether the S&P 500 follows SET-UP A or SET-UP B (read the US market report).

Any further weakness below support levels can see the market drop back down into 4560

Aussie Index (SPI) 22 January 2011 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

The Trend in the Australian market continues to remain stable, as long as US markets don't reverse down from their January highs.

What we saw this week was the Weekly 50% level @ 4741 provide support early in the week for a move towards the Weekly highs @ 4828.

The expectation was for the market to continue towards the January highs @ 4844, however, weakness followed when the S&P reversed down and the SPI opened below 4810.

SPI Weekly and 5-day range

Next Week:- my view is that the SPI will try and move upwards again:- 2-day rise from Friday's lows @ 4725


But any strength in the market can be easily offset if US marekts reverse down next week (read US report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 15 January 2011 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Start of the new Quarterly cycle has seen Support hold @ 4657.

The trend was verifed with price trading back above 4703, and the followed by Thursday's breakout of the 5-day high @ 4734.

Expectation is that the trend will continue towards the January highs, and then follow the move towards the February high:- target @ 4883.

Once again any upside it dependant on US markets not reversing down from their own higher timeframe levels, as it nears 1300 (2011 high) (read US Report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 8th Jan 2011 Weekly

SPI Futures (Australian Market)

As mentioned in last week's report, the critical level in the market is 4703....

And with Friday's close below that level, (weekly close) it is now likely to follow the Weekly pattern towards next week's lows.

Even though the market could continue to consolidate around these levels for the next couple of weeks, the Australian market isn't in synch with the US markets.

If US markets follow a move down towards their own Weekly lows, (Read US report)...

it will push the Australian market lower.

At this stage the minor timeframe cycles are bearish, as price is below both the Weekly and monthly 50% levels...

Whilst the Primary and Secondary cycles are bullish, as price is above those levels @ 4565 & 4442...

But a failure of support could see the market drift down towards those levels during the first quarter. (see previous reports for Primary and Secondary levels)