Aussie Index (SPI) 26 Feb 2011 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

As noted in last week’s report, the market remains in an orderly upward trend unless the market is trading below 4881-3

This changed last Monday when it was superseded with the breakout of the 5-day lows @ 4894.

The reversal of the trend was back into trailing weekly support levels @ 4767, which were only verified once the S&P followed the same pattern, and found support @ 1295, resulting in the SPI moving up on Friday.

Looking at the bigger picture:- we have an 2-month wave pattern that has reversed down from the February highs and back into trailing support levels, during the first Quarterly cycle in 2011

Those Weekly support levels have held, and the market is now moving into a short-term counter-trend move upwards, as the next month is about to begin (MARCH)

If the market is going to continue higher, then it will obviously follow the monthly range in MARCH and push upwards once again, using next week’s 50% level @ 4844 as a trend guide.

There are two possible patterns over the next 5-days…

#1 remains orderly, and continues towards next Week’s highs, as part of a move towards the MARCH highs

#2 moves back towards the original breakout @ 4881-83, stalls and then starts trading below the Weekly 50% level once again, as March begins

If that happens then there is the potential for more weakness if the market begins trading below the monthly 50% level in MARCH.

We should all keep an eye on how the S&P 500 trades over the next 2-days, as this could help set-up the overall trend over the next few weeks.

Read US market report.

Aussie Index (SPI) 19 Feb 2011 Weekly

SPI monthly and Weekly

Whilst the market remains above 4883, there is a trend bias to continue higher, and move towards 5093 by the 2nd Quarter.

At this stage the Australian market is following the trend within the Weekly ranges in
an orderly manner.

There will be levels within the daily range (not shown above) that will provide random resistance points of 21 to 42 points

However, unless the market is trading below 4883, then I can't see too much weakness in the short-term.

Aussie Index (SPI) 12 February 2011 Weekly

The SPI will be hitting major resistance levels next week...

first quarterly highs @ 4883 next week, which also matches the Weekly highs @ 4881.

Those levels will be seen as resistance, however the Australian market will once again follow any leads from the S&P" (Previous Weekly Report)

SPI Monthly and Weekly

The SPI has moved up into the February highs and stalled around the resistance levels, closing lower of Friday.

These Monthly highs now completes the 2-month wave pattern within the current Quarterly cycle


Personally, I wouldn't want to buy into the market at these levels. I would want to see the market move back down into trailing support levels.

However, as noted in last week's report...

Our market will dance to the tune of the S&P 500, as it continues up towards 1331 on Friday, resulting in our market opening higher once again. (next week)

Therefore, even though my view is that the SPI has hit resistance at these levels, and I would like to see it come back down into trailing support zones

I also noted that there is a larger Primary cycle pattern, trying to push the market up towards 5093 by the 2nd Quarter in 2011

Therefore, the SPI can continue to move higher next week...

And any weakness will be helped by the market trading below 4857, and rotating back towards the Weekly 50% level.

Aussie Index (SPI) 5 February 2011 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

In last week's report I wasn't so bullish because of the price action in the S&P 500.

However, that quickly changed when both markets moved back above their Weekly 50% levels....

And the SPI has followed the trend into the monthly highs in February...

And likely to reach the first quarterly highs @ 4883 next week, which also matches the Weekly highs @ 4881.

Those levels will be seen as resistance, however the Australian market will once again follow any leads from the S&P (Read US market report).

SPI Yearly and Monthly

The SPI will be hitting major resistance levels next week...

However, as noted at the start of the year

http://austindex.blogspot.com/2010/12/aussie-index-spi-1stjanuary-2011-weekly.html

there is a 2011 Primary trend that can see the market continue towards 5093, by the 2nd Quarter