Aussie Index (SPI) 28th MAY 2011 Weekly

4703 will decide on whether the price action in MAY and the failure at the monthly 50% level will push the SPI towards the Monthly lows....

especially if the S&P follows a double Weekly low pattern (Read US report)

Previous Weekly report


SPI Monthly and Weekly


The SPI opened below the Weekly level @ 4703 and moved down, as the S&P followed the double Weekly low pattern.

Once the S&P failed to continue down below the Weekly low (FAKE break), the SPI moved back above the Quarterly 50% level @ 4649, and then towards the short-term highs (5-day range)

I favour the trend to rise upwards, however, there isn't a robust set-up to BUY and hold as yet.

Things need to be validated, and those patterns begin with a move above the June 50% level, and then followed by the breakout of the Weekly highs.

As we can see the Weekly 50% level and June 50% level align as of next week...(Wednesday)


And those levels will determine whether the trend moves upwards, as the market remains above the Primary and Secondary 50% levels....


or is once again rejected back down from the monthly 50% level towards the June lows.

Aussie Index (SPI) 21st MAY 2011 Weekly

find support above the 2nd Quarterly 50% level @ 4649, and then make a gradual rise in the last week of MAY.

I would continue to use the Weekly levels as resistance/Trend guide:- 4738

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Last week saw the SPI find support @ the 2nd Quarter 50% level @ 4649 and rotate up towards the MAY 50% level and stall.

As noted in last week's report...

if the last week in MAY is going to rise up gradually, then it's going to remain inside the Weekly level @ 4703, and then push up towards the Weekly 50% level, and as high as 4826

4703 will also decide on whether the price action in MAY and the failure at the monthly 50% level will push the SPI towards the Monthly lows in June

I favour a rise upwards, as the market is acting in a predictable manner

But the market is never 100% reliable, especially if the S&P follows a double Weekly low pattern (Read US report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 14th MAY 2011 Weekly

I favour a continuation of the downward trend, following the break and extend pattern towards next week's lows (4649-59)


and then next best long set-ups will align with lower lows in June...

Previous Weekly Reports

SPI Monthly & Weekly

The trend in the SPI is going to depend on whether the S&P 500 breaks support or not (Read US index report)

if it breaks, the SPI will continue down into the MAY lows

if not...

it can dip down into next week's lows (4618-49), find support above the 2nd Quarterly 50% level, and then make a gradual rise in the last week of MAY.

Looking at the levels in the Weekly range....

I would continue to use the Weekly levels as resistance/Trend guide:- 4738

Aussie Index (SPI) 7th MAY 2011 Weekly

keep in mind we had the same pattern in 2010, when the market reversed down from the April highs, and by the 2nd day support levels failed in MAY (left Chart), on the back of weakness in the S&P 500.

Previous Weekly report

SPI Monthly and Weekly

We have the same pattern as in 2010, with the support levels failing by the 2nd day in MAY, on the back of weakness in the S&P 500.

However, we don't have the same outcome.

In 2010 the market reversed back down into the MAY lows during the first 5-days, (Flash Crash)..

Whilst in 2011, the S&P continues to remain above support levels, and the SPI below those support levels, which are now forming resistance.

There are two possible patterns during the rest of MAY....

#1) continues with the downward trend,  following the break and extend pattern towards next week's lows (4649-59)

#2) US markets move upwards (read US Index Report) and the SPI has a 'fake break' pattern.

Out of the two, I favour (#1) , and then next best long set-ups will align with lower lows in June...

but it won't surprise me to see #2)