SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 24th December 2013

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Primary Cycle suggests the trend will continue to move up towards the 2014 cycles highs (Read US S&P 500 report)

BUY zone in the 4th Quarter @ 4960, didn't reach, but the BUY zone in the first quarter remains @ 5066 if there is any short-term resistance.

Note:- there is a breakout in December (December 50% level matched with red channel),

this can act as resistance (along with 5338) for the rest of December.

A close above 5338 by the 31st of December, as occurred at the end of July, will help validate that Primary Cycle

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 12th December 2013

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Market didn't hit the November highs, unlike the US markets, and we can see that the December support has failed to hold, as part of a Primary trend towards the the 2014 highs.

I still believe that the market will continue towards those Primary cycle highs, however the Monthly cycles suggest the trend will continue to follow a 2-month wave pattern downward into 1st Quarter support.

If the trend does continue higher, then this BUY zone in the next Quarter is probably the best level to be moving back into the market

The Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 2nd November 2013 Monthly Report

 Primary Cycles suggests the trend will continue higher towards the 2014 highs,

The Trailing support has moved upwards, as shown in October @ 5128

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Future support @ 5128 came into play in early October, as part of the Primary cycle trend towards the 2014 yearly highs.

The short-term cycle will complete around the November highs, as this is part of the 2-month trending pattern within this Quarterly cycle, as described in my books.

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 1st October 2013

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Primary Cycles suggests the trend will continue higher towards the 2014 highs, but it didn't follow the orderly pattern I was looking for; a move down into September support @ 4937 and then a move upwards for the next 3-6 months.

The Trailing support has moved upwards, as shown in October @ 5128

The Trend should remain stable, as those Support zones hold, but long term support is 5006, if US markets move slightly lower towards the 4th Quarter BUY zone (READ US Report)

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 1st September 2013

SPI Primary cycles & Monthly cycles

Primary cycles suggest the trend will continue higher into the 2014 Yearly highs, as part of the Dilernia Principle "break & extend pattern.

We can now see Future Support move upwards in September, and if the trend is going to continue higher, then I would expect a drift downward into this level and then push upwards over the next 3-6 months.

I could be wrong, but SUPPORT resides around 4921-54

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 3rd August 2013

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

As noted in the previous Report, the Primary cycles has seen price close above 5069 on a Friday, swinging the cycle around to a BUY.

The previous BUY zone at 4796, has now been replace with 4921, which is seen as support for a continuation of the Primary cycles towards new highs in 2014.

Note:- Monthly cycles suggests the trend can continue up into August at 5153 before it reverses back down into 4921.

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 14th July 2013

We can see 4600 attracted Buyers, and now the trend will be defined by the 3rd Quarterly 50% level 4796. If it pushes upwards, there is major resistance around 4945 during July.

 Note:- there are breakout patterns (DOWN) in the monthly cycles, therefore if it moves up into 4945, my view is that it will move back down to align with the 'future' monthly LOW BUY zone, as illustrated in my book ( Previous Weekly Report)

SPI Primary & Monthly Cycles

The SPI has moved upwards and stalled around 4945.

If it follows my previous view of rotating downward from 4945, then 4796 should form support, and the future monthly support zone should come into play in early September, as it dynamically moves upwards.

However, if the market follows the Primary cycle, the SPI can continue to rise into 5069, close above it on a 'Friday' and swing the cycle around. This will once again form a Support zone around September around 4796.

SPI Futures Australia Stock Market 29th June 2013

SPI Primary & Weekly cycles

As mentioned in the last report some weeks ago, the trend was heading down into 4600 and the BUY zone.

We can see 4600 attracted Buyers, and now the trend will be defined by the 3rd Quarterly 50% level  4796.

Either the trend makes its way down towards the Yearly 50% level....

or it's going to push up towards the 2013 yearly highs. If it pushes upwards, there is major resistance around 4945 during July.

Note:- there are breakout patterns (DOWN) in the monthly cycles, therefore if it moves up into 4945, my view is that it will move back down to align with the 'future' monthly LOW BUY zone, as illustrated in my book

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 8th June 2013 Weekly Report

Primary & Monthly cycles

Primary cycles are weak with last week's close below 4899,  & now the BUY zone is around 4600...

However, US markets remain above Support (read S&P US Weekly Report)..

which could result in a swing upwards, or not, & a continuation down into 4600.

if it swings up, then around 5069 is your resistance-Sell zone.

And the next trend will be defined from the 3rd Quarter & 4818.

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 25th MAY 2013

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

If it does continue higher the next 5-days, and then into new highs the week after next, then it's time to look to profit taking, and then look for the same BUY zone in the 3rd Quarter. (27th April 2013)

 That was my last report 4 weeks ago, and we are now moving down into the BUY zone @ 4899 (4886/4905), after completing the highs in MAY, where profit taking should have done along with the 100% of the Primary cycles.

Keep in mind that the primary trend remains bullish whilst above those levels

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

We all know that the month of MAY is often the time when markets hit highs and reverse down, so it's a no  brainer...

The question is now whether Primary cycles hold Support?

Short-term there is resistance around 5065

& if they don't, then I already know where the next BUY zone is, using monthly cycle break and extend patterns, and hopefully so should you

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 27th April 2013

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

The Australian Stock Market continues to trade above the 2013 Yearly highs, and remains above April Support levels @ 4904,There is a bias to continue higher, as financial Stocks (READ the Stock Report) show the same bullish signs, however the collapse on commodity prices & Resource stocks keeps a lid on the overall market rising.

Those Commodity prices are now around 2013 primary BUY zones, which can see a short-term rise in the last week of April and into the start of MAY (Previous Report)

Trend bias is to continue higher next week, helped by the Weekly breakout and extension up into next week's highs.

if there's any weakness next week, it's based on retesting last week's breakout @ 5057 (Support)

If it does continue higher the next 5-days, and then into new highs the week after next, then it's time to look to profit taking, and then look for the same BUY zone in the 3rd Quarter.

NOTE: THIS IS THE LAST REPORT FOR A NUMBER OF WEEKS, AS I HEAD O/S.

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 20th April 2013

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

The Australian Stock Market continues to trade above the 2013 Yearly highs, and remains above April Support levels @ 4904

There is a bias to continue higher, as financial Stocks (READ the Stock Report) show the same bullish signs, however the collapse on commodity prices & Resource stocks keeps a lid on the overall market rising.

Those Commodity prices are now around 2013 primary BUY zones, which can see a short-term rise in the last week of April and into the start of MAY, but then stall.

Therefore, the Australian market favours a rise, but when we look at most market reversal (DOWN) they happen in MAY, when the same Support levels break.

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 13th April 2013

SPI Primary Cycles

The Australian market remains above the 2013 Yearly highs @ 4853

whilst it's above this level, there's an expectation that the trend will continue with the break & extend pattern into 2014 Yearly highs :- 9 months away

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

Monthly cycles showing weakness, as per Weekly Report. There's also a breakout of the Weekly lows @ 4906, which often suggests that the trend will extend downward into this week's lows.

The only pattern that might see a rise, is the Friday low support @ 4884.

This pattern often leads with a 2-day rise to start the week off. (8th April 2013)

The Australian Stock market began the week with a 2-day rise, helped by price being above the Yearly highs. This put the trend back above Monthly cycle support, and now there's an expectation that the trend will continue upwards:- 2-month trend towards the MAY highs.

If that's the case, then next week's 50% level @ 4970 is the trend guide & Support.

The Australian Stock Market 6th April 2013

As illustrated in previous Weekly reports, the Monthly support levels (RED) often provide a robust entry level during current Quarterly cycle & up into new highs in forward Quarterly highs:- 3-6 month trend:- Current Support resides around 4904

A break of the same Monthly Support level will put pressure on the trend to drop further, until the same pattern appears into the forward Quarterly cycle providing the next long-term entry level:- that long term entry level is @ 4673"

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Even though the Market remains above the Yearly highs in 2013, price has broken 2nd Quarterly Support, & now there's an expectation that price is following the trend bias of #B, down towards 4673.

As mentioned previously, Support needs to be validated with a 5-day high breakout, and often that happens with price never spending too much time below those Support levels in each Quarterly timeframe (RED)

Support held on Thursday, but it then failed the very next day, closing below.

Therefore the trend bias is to follow #B

Australian Stock Market 29th March 2013

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

"As illustrated in previous Weekly reports, the Monthly support levels (RED) often provide a robust entry level during current Quarterly cycle & up into new highs in forward Quarterly highs:- 3-6 month trend Current Support resides around 4864"

New Quarter and Support now resides @ 4904...

And if you believe the trend is going to continue higher, then #A is the pattern will confirm it, helped by a 5-day high breakout the week after next.

The Australian March (SPI Futures) 23rd March 2013

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

As illustrated in previous Weekly reports, the Monthly support levels (RED) often provide a robust entry level during current Quarterly cycle & up into new highs in forward Quarterly highs:- 3-6 month trend

Current Support resides around 4864

A break of the same Monthly Support level will put pressure on the trend to drop further, until the same pattern appears into the forward Quarterly cycle providing the next long-term entry level.

Short-term trend will be decided by the Weekly level @ 4974 (random Support)

The Australian Stock SPI Futures 16th March 2013

SPI Weekly cycles

Trend bias is UP into the MARCH highs @ 5187, and probably extend up into the future highs in APRIL, as part of the Quarterly break-n-extend pattern into the 2nd Quarterly highs

any Resistance or Selling pressure around the MARCH highs, and the Weekly lows are seen as Support for the trend to complete the move upwards @ 4980

Australian Stock Market SPI futures 9th March 2013

SPI Weekly cycles

Target MARCH highs @ 5187

Multi-day Support within the Weekly cycles @ 5091

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 2nd March 2013

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

Current Primary trend is extremely bullish, that can now continue for the next 2years.

Trend bias is to continue up towards the March highs.

Any short-term weakness has robust support around the March 50% level @ 4867

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 24th February 2013

SPI Primary & Weekly cycles

Price action in the Weekly cycles and Support at the February highs @ 4958 helps set-up further gains towards the March highs.

The movement upwards will be based on whether US markets follow the same pattern (Read S&P 500 Weekly Report)...

If not, then any swift movement downward will help set-up further gains for the next 2 years, as shown in the Primary cycles.

The Australian Stock Market 16th February 2013

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

Trading around the February highs, but without reversing down into trailing support.

I still expect that to happen, as shown below.....

SPI Primary cycles

With the market now trading above the 2013 Yearly highs, the upward trend can now for the next 2-years... 

My ideal pattern for capturing that potential trend remains for it to quickly move down into trailing cycle Support (White), and then follow with the continued breakout pattern...

Support 4662/79

  

The Australian Stock Market 9th February 2013

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

February highs are seen as resistance with the expectation the market will reverse and retest the January high breakout, which aligns with the Weekly lows

Australian Stock Market 3rd February 2012

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

Breakout of the January highs is extending up into the February highs, which is seen as resistance @ 4948-5004

1st Quarter Support resides around 4698-4711

The Australian Stock Market 26th January 2013

SPI Primary Cycles

The SPI is moving up into the 2013 Primary cycle highs, and in my opinion hitting some major resistance levels for 2013 around 4853/4880

These upper levels are ideal zones to begin to lighten up stock positions and wait for the inevitable pullback into the trailing 3-month lows some time in MAY-JUNE

SPI monthly & Weekly cycles

As noted in last week's report, the market was likely to remain above 4725 for the next 5-days...

but the January highs failed to form a resistance zone that has played it's part for the past 4 years.

Next Week's highs match the Primary cycle Resistance levels...

Whilst a Monthly breakout (January) can often extend up into the following monthly highs, this time February

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 19th January 2013

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

The Current trend is hitting resistance around 4750-4786

but it's likely to remain above the Weekly level @ 4725 for at least the next 5-days

The Australian Stock Report 12th January 2012 (SPI Futures)

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

I'm still bullish during this month:-  Target January's highs

but that will be decided by next week's level @ 4694...

as to whether it continues upwards

or dips down into the Weekly 50% level @ 4649 & possibly lower.

The Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 5th January 2013

SPI Primary cycles

My target of 4752 in the 4th Quarter was nearly reached, and because of this week's closing price, the Primary trend for 2013 suggests more gains towards 4853-4880

Now whether the trend will breakout of those 2013 highs and continue upwards for the next 2 years is yet to be seen, but my view is that those levels will form resistance, as the S&P reaches its own 2013 highs.

Long term support around 4447-4467

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

Breakout of the December highs will see the trend complete the break-n-extend pattern into the January highs.

Even though I have the SPI moving higher into the 2013 highs,

these January highs have often formed resistance pusing the SPI back down into trailing 1st Quarter Support

currently at 4532.