SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 17th December 2014

SPI Primary & Monthly Cycles

 

As we can see the Primary and Secondary cycles are driving the market lower.

 

There is current support around 2014 50% level, but the secondary Sell zone in the 4th Quarter @ 5399 has stalled the market, followed by a December break, leading to a potential move down into the January lows.

 

As mentioned in the previous report; below the 2015 50% level and the Primary cycles suggest further weakness in 2015, and potentially a 2-wave cycle that trends lower into 2016. (5-6 Quarters)

 

When we compare the Aussie Market to the S&P 500, the Primary cycles look to be moving in the opposite directions.

 

http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com.au/

 

The S&P remains above the Primary highs in 2014, and potentially this could see a push upwards in the 1st Quarter in 2015.

 

If that's the case this will help the Australian market rise up into the 2015 50% level (Sell Zone).

 

At this stage in the Primary cycle I would be focusing on building cash reserves, whilst the market zig-zags lower of the next 5-6 Quarters. (long term investing).

 

Whatever happens in 2015 sets up the next long term BUY strategy in 2016 for the next 4-5years.

 

 

 

Australian Stock Market Report 1st December 2014

The most robust pattern of the trend continuing higher is for the Trailing support (currently 5139) rising upwards and forming a higher Support zone in December, providing the next thrust pattern.

Previous Report

SPI Primary and Monthly Cycles

As we can see the 2014 highs have continued to form resistance since bouncing off the October support zone.

As mentioned in the previous report, if the market is going to continue higher, the December support pattern now at 5267 comes into play.

That means Support @ 5267 (24 hour market @ 5243), followed by a 5-day high breakout &  a weekly close back above  5399.

If that follows then we should see the start of the year push upwards.

It doesn't bode well if the market is opening below the 2015 50% level at the start of the new year, as illustrated in my books.

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 29th October 2014

SPI Primary & Secondary Cycles

 

My view of 5399 stalling the market (Sell Zone) failed with last Friday's close above that level.

 

Two important patterns have occurred since the market reaching the 2014 Primary highs..

 

1:- Reversal down into the 2014 50% level and October lows (Support)

 

2:- Last week's close above 5399.

 

This suggests the overall Primary Trend remains bullish, along with 5399 now being a random support zone, and that the trend will likely continue up towards the 2015 highs.

 

The most robust pattern of the trend continuing higher is for the Trailing support (currently 5139) rising upwards and forming a higher Support zone in December, providing the next thrust pattern.

Australian Stock Market Weekly Report 19th October 2014

Trend bias is to complete the Primary cycles based on the Dilernia Principle of Break & Extend towards the 2014 highs. As we can see, the change in cycle saw support come into the market @ 5266, whilst within the Monthly cycles there is another break & extend pattern that suggests the minimum move will be towards the April highs. (March 50% level Support) My view remains, off load Margin long positions around those Yearly highs

Previous Weekly Report

Australia Stock Market :- Primary & Secondary Cycles

The Market has played out as expected, completing the Primary Cycles towards the 2014 highs, and hopefully traders took my recommendation to exit Long Margin Positions around those upper levels.

When we look at the shorter cycles within the Weekly timeframe, we can see a similar break and extend pattern on the downside, from the September lows & now into the October lows. This medium term support coincides with the 2014 Yearly 50% level.

At this stage in the game, the secondary cycles are likely to form resistance around 5399 (SELL ZONE), and with just over 2-months to go until the end of this Primary cycle, it’s way too early to have a long term view of the overall market trend.

My view is that the Market could consolidate within a narrow band of the Sell Zone, and short-term Support until the next Primary cycle begins in 2015.

SPI Futures Australia Stock Market 7th April 2014 Monthly report

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Trend bias is to complete the Primary cycles based on the Dilernia Principle of  Break & Extend towards the 2014 highs.

As we can see, the change in cycle saw support come into the market @ 5266, whilst within the Monthly cycles there is another break & extend pattern that suggests the minimum move will be towards the April highs. (March 50% level Support)

My view remains, off load Margin long positions around those Yearly highs, whilst keeping an eye on the same patterns in US futures markets (Read US report)

SPI Futures Australia Stock Market 3rd March 2014

The Market has moved down into 1st Quarter support @ 5067, after following the December break and extend pattern from 5338 (resistance) in the 4th Quarter & into 1st Quarter Support.

As noted in previous reports last year, the Primary cycles suggests the trend can extend up towards the 2014 highs,  however that view needs to be validated with the current price action, starting with a  breakout of the 5-day highs, followed by a breakout @ 5122

Previous Monthly Report 

SPI Primary & Monthly Cycles

Trend bias is to complete the move towards the 2014 Primary highs @ 5574, as part of the Primary cycle Break & Extend pattern from the 2013 highs.

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

BUY Support @ 5067 was validated with the 5-day high breakout that aligned with 5122..(Yearly 50% level)

The Trend should follow the move towards the March highs :- Random resistance @ 5537...

Trailing support March 50% level.

SPI Futures 4th February 2014 Monthly Report

The BUY zone in the first quarter remains @ 5066 if there is any short-term resistance around 5338

 Note:- there is a breakout in December (December 50% level matched with red channel), this can act as resistance (along with 5338) for the rest of December.

 A close above 5338 by the 31st of December, as occurred at the end of July, will help validate that Primary Cycle.... (24th December 2013)

SPI Primary Cycle and Monthly Cycles

The Market has moved down into 1st Quarter support @ 5066, after following the December break and extend pattern from 5338 (resistance) in the 4th Quarter & into 1st Quarter Support.

As noted in previous reports last year, the Primary cycles suggests the trend can extend up towards the 2014 highs,  however that view needs to be validated with the current price action, starting with a  breakout of the 5-day highs, followed by a 3-week high breakout @ 5122 sometime in 'March', end of the first Quarter. 

Simply because, the current trend in this Quarter & now  being below the 2014 yearly 50% level @ 5122, dosen't bode well for a Primary break & extend pattern towards the 2014 highs