Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures - 1st December 2018

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

We can also see the Quarterly cycles bearish (below Yellow), whereas earlier in the year they were support.

This now sets up the market being below the 2018 50% level and BEARISH PATTERNS that will go looking for 100% targets to the downside.

The Breakout of the October lows @ 6048 has put pressure on the market, but more importantly it's broken key levels in the Primary cycles and the bearish patterns have continued in November
(50% level resistance) 

Whilst there is strength in the S&P 500 (sort of), the SPI should follow a 2-wave downside pattern towards the 2019 lows and as far as the 100% level @ 5113

I just can't see a December rally in the Australian market looking at these pattern.
There could be some upside, but only to retest resustance.

SPI PRIMARY CYCLES

This is a very similar pattern as in 2015-2016

Weakness in the 2nd half of 2015 and support in 2016 a continuation upwards.

12th SEPTEMBER 2015 REPORT

Therefore any short-term support must treat the 2015 50% as resistance for the rest of the year. (previous Report)

The Australian Market has continued its dramatic sell-off extending its low towards the 100% level of the Yearly Timeframe @ 4750

As noted in the previous report, the BEAR-Market pattern often extends towards the 2016 lows, If we use historical patterns clearly described in my book :- Market Trading Market Time, then we should see some consolidation around the current 2015 lows, but then further weakness from the 4th Quarter down into the 1st Quarter lows some time in March 2016

If that plays out, then I'd look to move back into Long positions in the Aussie Market 6 months from now using the 2016 lows and SUPPORT & ENTRY

As you can see in the above post from September 2015, I had already had a vision how the market would act for the rest of the year and I was extremely confident that there would be further weakness in 2016 and that those lows would support the market.

I was confident because the MARKET had already extended itself 100% of the Primary range on the downside in 2015.

We haven't had that happen in 2018/2019, as yet.

So even though I've got an expectation that 2019 will push lower, I'm not as confident that 2019 will be as a robust support as 2016.

Australia Stock Market SPI Futures 4th November 2018

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

As you know I've been bullish on the markets with the expectation that the trend continuing to move up into new highs until 2020-21.  

This is based on the 2016 lows and then the trend continuing higher using the Primary cycles for an initial two years (2018 highs) and up to 4/5 years (2020-21). There's also a ton of good economic news coming out of the US atm.

However, the break of the October lows and now trading below the 2018 50% level, suggests the trend will continue down into the November lows (Weekly cycles bearish)

We can also see the Quarterly cycles bearish (below Yellow), whereas earlier in the year they were support.

This now sets up the market being below the 2019 50% level and BEARISH PATTERNS that will go looking for 100% targets to the downside.

If you read the S&P 500 Report, the Primary Cycles are still bullish, but the same bearish patterns are aligning.

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Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures 13th October Report

Australia Stock Market

PRIMARY and WEEKLY CYCLES

As per the previous report, the short-term pattern suggested a move towards the 3-month lows.

The move spiked down as far as the 2018 50% level.

This Primary cycle 50% level defines the state of the BULL TREND, and I continue to be bullish into 2020-21

However, it still remains in a SHORT_TERM breakout pattern, which is going to struggle to move higher than 6041 for the rest of this month if there's Buying & 'short-covering' early next week.

Australian Stock Market SPI futures 1st October 2018 Monthly Report

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

Weekly cycles showing weakness with the break of the September 50% level and breakout of the Weekly lows.

Normally there would be an expectation the trend will continue lower towards the Weekly lows, as part of a "break and extend pattern" and looking for the 2/3 month lows.

However, the Primary cycle is still looking for more gains and the target of 6437

Therefore, long term suggests more gains, Short term suggests weakness.

Trade either side of 6147

A retest of the 2/3 month lows, or as far as 5984 is an ideal level to get back into the Primary BULL trend

Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures 3rd September 2018

SPI Futures PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

Price looking to reach the 2018 highs @ 6437

Current Support @ 6220  (September 50%)

Once it reaches those highs, my expectation is that there will be a lot of resistance around that level.

However, I still think the trend is still going higher until 2020-2021.

Therefore it may stall, but any weakness is short-term (2-3 months) into trailing support levels.

Keep an eye on the S&P 500 (read report)

The Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures - 5th August 2018

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

TArget in 2018 - 6437

If it's going hit those highs, it will need to form support above the 2018 highs @ 6155

However, past  Primary cycles has seen resistance around the .618 of the range @ 6223

Support

Weekly Lows and July 50% level (don't trade longs below) @ 6008 (previous Report)

The Market continues higher and now forming support above 6155.

I'm still bullish for a move to 6437 but there's a bit of resistance around these  upper levels

Weekly lows have now moved higher into the August 50% level.

Even though I'm still bullish, don't trade long below @6145

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET 1st July 2018 Monthly Report

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

Still Bullish on the markets until 2020-21, even though there is so much negative news around, i/e Trump's tariffs etc

TArget in 2018 - 6437

If it's going hit those highs, it will need to form support above the 2018 highs @ 6155

However, past  Primary cycles has seen resistance around the .618 of the range @ 6223

Support

Weekly Lows and July 50% level (don't trade longs below) @ 6008

Australian Stock Market - SPI futures 3rd June 2018 Monthly report

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

I still favour a rise up into 2020/21, so bullish for another 2 years.

Any weakness in MAY and treat the 2018 Yearly 50% level as support, with the expectation that Markets will continue to rise. (previous Report)

There was weakness in MAY but not as far as some other years when we do see markets move lower.

Looking at the current patterns, the Yearly 50% level is the Major support level

However, I would use the Weekly lows and June 50% level as the first Support zone at the start of this month

support :- 5944

major support 5899 - 5877

Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures 6th MAY 2018

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

Currently the Australian Market is  trading above the Yearly 50% level, but it might take a number of weeks for the volatility to subside, as the Weekly lows creep upwards and is used for support for the next move upwards in Late March, Early April

I still favour a rise up into 2020/21, so bullish for another 2 years.

The patterns in the secondary cycles weren't lining up in their usual precise manner, but if you understand the PRIMARY CYCLES there is a bias for the market to continue higher into 2020/21.

We did see the rise begin in early APRIL, but it wasn't until it consolidated above the April 50% level and yearly 50% level that it took off.

Any weakness in MAY and treat the 2018 Yearly 50% level as support, with the expectation that Markets will continue to rise.

The Australia Stock Market - SPI Futures 3rd April 2018 Monthly Report

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

I'm still in the bullish camp, and these retracements in February are just part of the Primary Cycle patterns that are expected once. I still favour a rise up into 2020/21, so bullish for another 2 years.

Currently the Australian Market is  trading above the Yearly 50% level, but it might take a number of weeks for the volatility to subside, as the Weekly lows creep upwards and is used for support for the next move upwards in Late March, Early April (previous Report)

It had everything going for it, consolidation above the Yearly & Monthly March 50% level for 3 weeks, but then weakness on the back of China's response to Trump's tariffs over the last 5-days.

Therefore the Late March & Early April continuation of the BULL Trend doesn't look like it's going to happen.

There's a pattern in the S&P 500 (emini) playing out, which will define whether the Market will rise or whether the start of the 'trade wars' is putting a major pressure on Primary Stock Market Trends.

SPI Futures - Australia Stock Market Monthly Report 7th March 2018

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

However, have a read of the S&P 500 report and we can see a different picture that could introduce a lot more volatility in the market overnight.

Whilst the SPI tries to move upwards during the day, (above the FEB 50%), US markets are looking to move lower into Support levels. (Previous Report)

Well that was a bit of an understatement, US market moved much lower into support levels (Read S&P 500 Report) and volatility has remained over the past number of weeks.

I'm still in the bullish camp, and these retracements in February are just part of the Primary Cycle patterns that are expected once. I still favour a rise up into 2020/21, so bullish for another 2 years.

Currently the Australian Market is  trading above the Yearly 50% level, but it might take a number of weeks for the volatility to subside, as the Weekly lows creep upwards and is used for support for the next move upwards in Late March, Early April

Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures 4th February 2018

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

The Market is likely to hit resistance around the 2018 highs, just like it did in 2017 because the US markets need to pull back.

I'm expecting more gains in 2018 so any pullback is the perfect time to get back into the Market.

Not sure it will get as low as the 2018 50% level @5877, but if it does jump right back in! (Maybe MAY 2018)

There's more upside in the SPI, as it still has to complete the 2017 breakout and reach the 2018 highs

And we can see that Price wants to do just that, as it remains above the February 50% level, which will define the trend during this month

However, have a read of the S&P 500 report and we can see a different picture that could introduce a lot more volatility in the market overnight.

Whilst the SPI tries to move upwards during the day, (above the FEB 50%), US markets are looking to move lower into Support levels.

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET SPI FUTURES 6TH jANUARY 2018

SPI PRIMARY &  Weekly Cycles

 breaks out of those Quarterly highs @5922 look for a continued rally into 2018 

This whole process is part of a multi-year rally from the 2016 lows, so I'm looking for more upside into 2018 and beyond. (PREVIOUS REPORT

The Australian Market is moving higher into 2018 and beyond, but it doesn't have the same legs like it does in the US Markets.

The Market is likely to hit resistance around the 2018 highs, just like it did in 2017 because the US markets need to pull back (See S&P500 Report)

I'm expecting more gains in 2018 so any pullback is the perfect time to get back into the Market.

Not sure it will get as low as the 2018 50% level @5877, but if it does jump right back in! (Maybe MAY 2018)