Australian Stock Market - SPI futures 6th December 2020

 

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET  

Massive news coming out of the US the day after the election was all about the Vaccine.

Above the 50% level in 2020 and target is the 2021 highs.

There was every reason to be a Bear last month, but November's price action changes all that.

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET - SPI FUTRES 1ST NOVEMBER 2020

 

SPI PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

AUSSIE MARKET REMAINS IN A BEAR TREND, AND IT DOESN'T TAKE TOO MUCH FOR THE NOVEMBER LOWS TO BREAK AND SEE THE MARKET DROP MUCH LOWER INTO 2021

THE US ELECTION WILL HAVE A MASSIVE BEARING ON THE STOCK MARKET TRENDS.

A TRUMP WIN WILL BE POSITIVE, A BIDEN WIN I'M SURE WILL BE NEGATIVE, - RAISING TAXES AND SHUTTING THE ECONOMY.

SURE THE MARKET CAN RISE, BUT I WOULD RATHER VERIFY THAT USING THE 2021 50% LEVEL AS THE TREND GUIDE IN JANUARY

Australian Stock Market Report 3rd October 2020

 

Primary & Weekly Cycles

If we subscribe to the Primary Cycles Bear Market Patterns, then we are looking for October lows to fail and then for the trend continue down towards new lows in 2021.

With Trump going into Hospital with Covid-19 after Future Markets closed, it will be interesting on next week's open, and enough to spook the markets.

The 3rd Quarter has always been the Secondary Cycle that sees the next wave downwards.

Whilst the US markets and the Australian Market don't align, they will if US markets continue lower (read US Report)

We can see in the Forward Primary Cycle in 2021, if price doesn't sell off, but continues to remain supported in 2020 above the Yearly lows (5703), then next year's 50% level will define whether the Aussie market goes higher or not.

If looking to be a BUYER in the Aussie Market, I would sit it out until next year

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET REPORT 4TH SEPTEMBER 2020

 

Australian Stock Market Report 

It's best to read the US Report to give you an idea of what may play out.

S&P 500 50% level should coincide with the Australian Stock Market September lows and also the 3rd Quarter 50% level at 5614

From there, does it bounce?

Or does the Australian Stock Market follow the BEAR MARKET Trend and break the lows and  price continues to trend down until 2021

Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures 1st August 2020

Australian Stock Market

The Aussie Market looks terrible compared to the S&P 500, but it still should continue higher to at least the Yearly 50% level, which should coincide with the S&P 500 forming a double top (Read US Report) 

Once that happens, we could begin to see the start of another move downward.

Some early weakness next week but the August lows and Yearly Lows most likely support the market.

Australian Stock Market - SPI FUTURES 29th June 2020

Australian Stock Market - Primary & Weekly Cycles

Whilst above the Yearly lows at 5683 the bias is to continue higher towards the 2020 50% level at 6375

Weekly cycles continue to be bullish, but I still would like to see the June 50% level tested to validate whether it will continue towards the 2020 50% level

Still trading above the 2020 lows, but I'm surprised it hasn't move as high as the 2020 50% level @ 6375

Around the July 50% level, it will also match the monthly lows, providing a robust support zone for that move upwards 6375 to 6420

However, read the S&P 500 report, because what looks like a good set-up for a move higher can lead to a break of support and down into the July lows and then the August lows.

Therefore below the Weekly lows at 5613 is open to Risk in July.

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 13th June 2020 Report

Australian Stock Market (Primary & Weekly Cycle)

I would like to see the Weekly highs stall the trend from going higher and retest the JUNE 50% level.  (SET-UP B and into  SET-UP C)

Once that happens we can validate whether the Australian Market will go higher and how high. (previous Report)

Whilst above the Yearly lows at 5683 the bias is to continue higher towards the 2020 50% level at 6375

Weekly cycles continue to be bullish, but I still would like to see the June 50% level tested to validate whether it will continue towards the 2020 50% level.

There's so much negative news in the economy, I'm even scratching my head of how the market can go higher?

But it can!

Things will change, once it's below the Monthly 50% levels and with a distinct possibility any selling would move back to the Monthly Blue Channel lows.

The Australian Stock Market 30th MAY 2020

Australian Stock Market - Primary & Weekly Cycles

14th MARCH 2020

There's 3 potential price actions that may happen.

A. - remains below the 2020 lows & in between 5021

with resistance next week around these 2 levels 5868 & the March lows @ 5980

B. More short covering from 5525 up to 6120 - resistance

C: A lot of Short covering into the 2020 50% level over the next few week @ 6355 - a lot of resistance for more weakness into 2021

With a Peak around MAY June, therefore there is expected weakness into 2021 for long terms buys.

Currently we are in SET-UP A -  retesting the MARCH lows at 5980

Fundamentally the economy is cactus, but the BEAR MARKET Pattern in the Australian Market has failed to materialise, and the Aussie Market has followed the S&P 500 higher (read S&P 500)

Whilst inside the 2020 lows, the trend bias is to move towards the 2020 50% level at 6375

 (SET-UP C)

However, I would like to see the Weekly highs at 6017 stall the trend from going higher and retest the JUNE 50% level.  (SET-UP B and into  SET-UP C)

Once that happens we can validate whether the Australian Market will go higher and how high.

In conclusion - 

It looks like it's going to go higher into June, but I've always have had the view that the Market is going to continue to go lower into 2021 and that it starts to unwind from the 3rd Quarter. 

However, there is no SET-UP or resistance levels to validate that view at this stage.

The Australian Stock Market - SPI Futures 3rd MAY 2020

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

Extremely bearish on the Australian Market. 

It's consolidating below the 2020 lows, has retested the Monthly 50% levels in April and I have the expectation that it will try and move down towards the Monthly lows (B)

We now have the Weekly channels converging into each other, and it now looks like it wants to POP, but not on the upside.

Those monthly lows (B) is where to you to be buying again, but it's still and BUY and GET OUT, because of the view it's going lower into 2021.

The only thing propping up the Markets is the US FED, pumping the tyres of the US markets, but the state of the economy will soon catch up and those  US Markets will soon move to the DOWNSIDE also.

Australia Stock Market 19th April 2020 - SPI Futures

Primary & Weekly Cycles

The pattern in the Australian Stock market is the classic BEAR MARKET pattern - 

Moves up towards the previous breakout or 50% level in the following Monthly and then Sells down

ie. 5524  or as high as 5980.

However, only if the US markets follow, and they're being pumped full of money.

The big difference between the two are - the S&P 500 is heavily weighted by 4 companies that are still doing well during this Crisis, whilst the Australian Market, heavily dominated by Financials and Minerals are doing poorly.

I don't see any V shape recovery.

I see more weakness into 2021.

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET SPI FUTURES 5TH APRIL 2020

SPI PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

LONG TERM - THE AUSTRALIAN MARKET IS GOING INTO NEW LOWS INTO 2021

SHORT-TERM, I STILL THINK IT WILL TRY AND MOVE UPWARDS TO APPROX 

50% OF THE RANGE (WEEKLY HIGHS)

NEXT WEEK TREND GUIDE IS 5274

RANDOM RESISTANCE 5524

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET SPI FUTURES 28TH MARCH2020

SPI PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

Resistance below the 2020 lows and now breaking the 100% range at 5021.

I would read the US REPORT (S&P 500), to get a better idea, that even though it's below 5021, I'm expecting a counter-trend rally in April of 50% of the range from the Highs in January Highs and the new lows that will be set soon. 

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

However, LONG TERMS BUYS REMAIN IN 1st QUARTER LOWS in 2021, as I'm expecting more weakness from JUNE.

THERE WAS A LARGE COUNTER-TREND RALLY IN THE S&P 500, AND THE AUSTRALIAN MARKET TRIED ITS BEST TO FOLLOW BUT DIDN'T HAVE THE SAME LEGS.

APRIL BEGINS NEXT WEEK, BUT I'M STRUGGLING TO SEE A 50% RETRACEMENT AFTER LAST WEEK'S PRICE ACTION

  WE CAN SEE THE BREAK AND EXTEND PATTERNS DOWN TOWARDS 4061 & 3855.

THERE'S STILL NO REASON TO BE BUYING INTO THE MARKET UNTIL 2021.

21st March 2020 Australian Stock Market SPI Futures

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET SPI FUTURES 

PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

 Resistance next week around these 2 levels 5868 & the March lows @ 5980

They are predicting it's going to get worse over the next 4 weeks with a Peak around MAY June, therefore there is expected weakness into 2021 for long terms buys.

In the Short-term I would think a bit of A....

Resistance below the 2020 lows and now breaking the 100% range at 5021.

I would read the US REPORT (S&P 500), to get a better idea, that even though it's below 5021, I'm expecting a counter-trend rally in April of 50% of the range from the Highs in January Highs and the new lows that will be set soon. 

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

However, LONG TERMS BUYS REMAIN IN 1st QUARTER LOWS in 2021, as I'm expecting more weakness from JUNE.

Australian Stock Market 14th March 2020 - SPI Futures

ASX Primary & Weekly Cycles

When we look at previous Bear Market sell offs, it can often go looking for the 100% of the range, which is 5012.

Once it reaches that point, it doesn't go much lower, in the current year.

5012 is Support for 2020, but it's not a BUY & HOLD level, that will come in 2021 (previous Report)

Australian Stock Market down into 5012 and support back into the 2020 lows @ 5883

Has all the bad news been factored in the market in the Short-term?

There's 3 potential price actions that may happen.

A. - remains below the 2020 lows & in between 5021

with resistance next week around these 2 levels 5868 & the March lows @ 5980

B. More short covering from 5525 up to 6120 - resistance

C: A lot of Short covering into the 2020 50% level over the next few week @ 6355 - a lot of resistance for more weakness into 2021

They are predicting it's going to get worse over the next 4 weeks with a Peak around MAY June, therefore there is expected weakness into 2021 for long terms buys.

In the Short-term I would think a bit of A, but I won't be surprise is there is B!

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 10th March 2020

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

There should be support and short-covering this week.

It will be hard to see it going higher than the MARCH 50% level and February lows @ 6564  - Retest of the Break down - RESISTANCE.

At this stage there is no reason to be buying into the Market for BUY & HOLDS, otherthan short-term volatility on the upside into Resistance levels

Next Long Term buy is the 2021 Lows (PREVIOUS REPORT)

We saw a early support last week, but sadly it didn't reach the MARCH 50% level, unlike the S&P 500, which provided the perfect set-up for more downside

When we look at previous Bear Market sell offs, it can often go looking for the 100% of the range, which is 5012.

Once it reaches that point, it doesn't go much lower, in the current year.

Therefore, I would expect some support and around this level, but it might not get higher than 5749 for a number of weeks.

5012 is Support for 2020, but it's not a BUY & HOLD level, that will come in 2021

Australian Stock Market Report - SPI Futures 29 February 2020

SPI Primary & Weekly Cycles

The Australian Stock Market completes its 4 year cycle highs in 2020.

I personally wouldn't be looking to BUY long term unless there's a decent downtrend to at least the Yearly lows ( 2 year lows)

However, the Yearly 50% level @ 6375 - 6320 could & should provide some Support in the first 2 quarters of 2020. Previous Report

READ S&P 500 Report

Selling hit Global Markets once the US markets completed their 2020 highs and we can now see a retrace into the 2020 50% level, which is now supporting price.

There is a break and extend pattern in the Weekly cycles, that could see price push down into 6120 and as far as 5980, however I think there should be support and short-covering this week.

It will be hard to see it going higher than the MARCH 50% level and February lows @ 6564  - Retest of the Break down - RESISTANCE.

At this stage there is no reason to be buying into the Market for BUY & HOLDS, otherthan short-term volatility on the upside into Resistance levels

Next Long Term buy is the 2021 Lows

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 2nd February 2020 Monthly Report

Australian Stock Market - Primary and Weekly Cycles

The Australian Stock Market completes its 4 year cycle highs in 2020.

I personally wouldn't be looking to BUY long term unless there's a decent downtrend to at least the Yearly lows ( 2 year lows)

However, the Yearly 50% level @ 6375 - 6320 could & should provide some Support in the first 2 quarters of 2020.

The February 50% @  level is the trend guide on further weakness @ 6835

Note - there could be further upside, as US markets haven't reached their own 2020 highs that will help confirm the completion of the 4 year cycles, however for Aussie stocks, it's now sit and wait  (READ US REPORT)

Better to be trading on the long side of Cryptos

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 4th January 2020 Monthly Report

Primary & Weekly Cycles

Iran & US tensions spook the markets back down into the 2020 50% level @ 6373?

However, whilst above the January 50% level, the target remains the 2020 highs, as part of the 4 year cycle

Target - 7003 - 7045